Bowl Projections 2014: Updated College Playoff Predictions Before Week 13
If you think political arguments around elections get heated, just wait until the final College Football Playoff poll is released.
With teams jostling for style points and strength-of-schedule boosts, the final few weeks of the 2014 season are bound to be entertaining and packed with thrilling action. Week 13 is light on marquee matchups, but Week 14 and the conference-championship showdowns are bound to shed some light on which teams are the best four in the nation.
With that in mind, here is a look at some updated playoff projections before getting into a discussion about the latest College Football Playoff Top 25 poll.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Baylor
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Looking at Latest College Football Playoff Poll
Perhaps the first thing that jumps out about the College Football Playoff poll released on Tuesday is that one-loss Oregon is ahead of undefeated Florida State.
This is not a new development (we saw it in the previous rankings as well), but it is certainly a noteworthy change from years past of favoring undefeated teams over those with blemishes. It is a testament to the lack of respect for the ACC as a whole as the perceived worst power-five conference.
Of course, you could make the point that Oregon’s loss to Arizona was not as great as the Wildcats’ No. 15 mark would indicate since they narrowly escaped games against Washington, California, Nevada and Texas-San Antonio with dramatic wins, but that would be overlooking Oregon’s wins.
The Ducks beat Michigan State, UCLA, Stanford and Utah, which is a far more impressive collection of wins than anything on Florida State’s resume.
Ultimately, fans are arguing over semantics here if both teams get in as the Nos. 2 and 3 teams, but which squad you rank higher depends on how much you value the zero in the loss column for Florida State compared to the quality wins Oregon has racked up.
Of far more immediate interest is the battle for the No. 4 spot. It seems more apparent every week that Alabama, Florida State and Oregon are going to the playoffs, barring an unforeseen upset, so Ohio State, Mississippi State, Baylor and TCU are all campaigning for one position.
The Buckeyes are the red-hot candidate that nobody wants to play, but they still have that ugly loss to Virginia Tech on their resume. Baylor boasts the head-to-head win over TCU, while Mississippi State is getting a lot of credit by association because it is in the SEC, even though wins over Auburn and LSU look much less impressive after this past Saturday’s results.
TCU does have that loss to Baylor, but it beat Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia and Minnesota. Eventually, that head-to-head win Baylor has over TCU will likely come into play for the Bears vs. Horned Frogs debate from the Big 12, but Baylor has to beat Kansas State first.
In these bowl projections, the Bears knock off the Wildcats and claim that final spot.
For what it’s worth, Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott believes his team belongs in the field even after losing to Alabama, via Drew Champlin of Al.com: "I still think we're one of the best four teams in the country. We just played one of the other best four teams in the country. It was a playoff game in my mind."
One thing fans should not overlook is the conference-championship-game factor that will likely work in the Buckeyes’ favor.
Mississippi State will be on the outside of the SEC title game looking in as long as Alabama wins out, so it won’t even be a division winner. TCU and Baylor play in the Big 12, which is the one power-five conference that does not feature a league championship game. From a perception standpoint, that could matter to the selection committee because that is one less quality game on the Big 12 schedule.
It would be unfair if the lack of a Big 12 title game didn’t come into play, since teams like Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama and Florida State all have to play and beat another quality opponent.
The Buckeyes could be looking at the dynamic Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin on the fast turf in Indianapolis in that final matchup. A win there would likely leave quite the final impression on the selection committee.
David M. Hale of ESPN.com made a case for the Buckeyes:
"If the goal is to put the best teams into the playoff, Ohio State’s case is sound. In fact, there may not be a team in the country playing better football right now than the Buckeyes. [J.T.] Barrett has gone from a deer in headlights to a Heisman candidate. The offensive line has allowed just 10 sacks in the last eight games. The defense is light-years ahead of Oregon by virtually every metric.
"
There are so many factors in play here, from the subjective eye test to strength of schedule (that is also largely preordained by subjective preseason rankings that frame the context of discussion about every game the rest of the season).
One thing is for sure, though—college football fans are bound to argue about it well after the final poll is released.
Follow me on Twitter:
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
