Can Mississippi State Really Hold on to a Spot in the College Football Playoff?

Cue the #SECBias arguments, because Mississippi State is about to test them in the next few weeks. 

The latest College Football Playoff Top 25 was released Tuesday, and the Bulldogs, fresh off of a 25-20 loss to now No. 1 Alabama, took the fourth and final spot in the playoff field should the season end today. TCU, Ohio State and Baylor are No. 5, No. 6 and No. 7, respectively, and seem to be the final cutoff for teams with playoff hopes. 

However, playoff chair Jeff Long said "the difference between teams four through seven is very narrow." (H/t Stewart Mandel, Fox Sports.) 

In other words, Mississippi State is no sure thing when it comes to a playoff spot. The good thing for Dan Mullen's team is that no one in college football is a sure thing. 

The first and simplest thing that the Bulldogs have to do to be in the discussion at year's end is win—that, or pray for losses around them. Without an Alabama loss between now and the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs do not control their destiny. The regular-season-ending game at Ole Miss is potentially Mississippi State's last chance to get a key victory. 

Would that be enough? The playoff has been set up to field the "four best teams," not necessarily four conference or divisional champions. However, the number of teams in position to win their conferences atop the rankings suggests it's a major factor. 

What Mississippi State's playoff hopes come down to is whether the committee thinks the Bulldogs have the strength of schedule to fend off a Big Ten champ Ohio State or Big 12 co-champ, be it TCU or Baylor.

Mississippi State plays in the SEC West, considered to be the best division in college football. However, as the season has progressed, some of that shine has worn off. The Bulldogs' best win is against Auburn, a team that just got housed by Georgia. 

Team	Wins vs. Top-25 Teams	Loss vs. Top-25 Team	Nonconference Schedule	Remaining Games
No. 4 Mississippi State	1 (No. 14 Auburn)	1 (No. 1 Alabama)	USM, UAB, USA, UT-Martin	Vanderbilt, No. 8 Ole Miss
No. 5 TCU	3 (No. 12 K-State, No. 21 OU, No. 25 UM)	1 (No. 7 Baylor)	Samford, Minnesota, SMU	Texas, Iowa State
No. 6 Ohio State	2 (No. 11 Michigan State, No. 25 Minnesota)	Lost to unranked Virginia Tech	Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent State, Cincinnati	Indiana, Michigan
No. 7 Baylor	2 (No. 5 TCU, No. 21 Oklahoma)	Lost to unranked West Virginia	SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo	Oklahoma St., Texas Tech, No. 12 K-State

Mississippi State got credit for staying close against Alabama, even though the game wasn't as close as the score indicated. The Tide led 19-3 at the half, and Mississippi State's final touchdown came with 15 seconds left in the game.

Given that the committee is more inclined reward a team for what it has done (won) vs. what it hasn't (lost), that credit's shelf life is limited. Long has said in the past that there's no way to project conference champions, so teams aren't going to get credit for what they haven't done yet. That will obviously be re-evaluated at year's end. 

Adding to that is Mississippi State's nonconference schedule, consisting of such blue-blood programs as Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama and UT-Martin. That slate is undeniably soft. Now that Mississippi State has a loss, more light has been cast upon those four games. 

Baylor, Ohio State and TCU generally had light nonconference schedules as well. If Mississippi State had one marquee nonconference win, similar to Oregon's victory over Michigan State, then perhaps strength of schedule/quality wins would matter more than winning a conference. At the very least, it'd be another layer to the discussion.

The confusing thing about the committee's thought process—or, at least how it has been relayed—is that there are numerous things that are taken into consideration that don't always appear to be evenly applied. As a result, there are a lot of conflicting narratives about what's important. 

For one week, Mississippi State was the benefactor of the committee's thought process. As the season winds to an end, however, the Bulldogs aren't in the position a team would want to be in. When all is said and done, it wouldn't be surprising if that came back to bite them.  

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football.