Oregon Football: Sizing Up Ducks' Potential Opponents for Pac-12 Title Game

In the College Football Playoff standings, the second-ranked Oregon Ducks are two regular-season games away from a Pac-12 title game that will likely determine their postseason fate.

The Ducks (9-1, 6-1) still have to play Colorado and a surprisingly feisty Oregon State team that just took down then-sixth-ranked Arizona State last weekend. The idea that the Ducks are simply going to waltz into the Pac-12 title game without another loss is shortsighted.

That being said, the Ducks have already locked up the Pac-12 North and have reserved a spot in the title game on Dec. 5. While Oregon shouldn’t be looking ahead to that game, we can!

Oregon has played three games against Pac-12 South opponents this season and has another one this weekend against Colorado. The results so far have been mixed.

The Ducks have two impressive road victories against Pac-12 South opponents—No. 17 Utah and No. 9 UCLA. The Ducks won those two games by a combined 36 points—a total that would have been higher had the Ducks not taken their foot off the pedal in the fourth quarter against UCLA. However, the Ducks suffered their only defeat of the season to a Pac-12 South team: Arizona.

With two weeks left in the regular season, there are five teams still competing for a spot in the Pac-12 title game. How do the Ducks stack up against those five teams, and who is going to ultimately meet Oregon at Levi’s Stadium? Let’s take a look.

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Potential Opponents

The Pac-12 South race couldn't possibly be any tighter, and the margin for error for the five remaining contenders is paper thin.

Moreover, figuring out which team is going to represent the Pac-12 South in the conference championship is about as difficult as advanced calculus. Since I’m about as competent at calculus as a 4-year old, I’ll leave it up to ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura to explain the potential Pac-12 scenarios.

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For Arizona to win: The only way Arizona wins the South is if it wins out, UCLA beats USC and Stanford beats UCLA. 

For Arizona State to win: If ASU wins out and UCLA loses at least once, the Sun Devils will win the division. 

For UCLA to win: Beat USC and Stanford. 

For USC to win: If ASU loses to either WSU or Arizona and USC beats UCLA, the Trojans will win the division. 

For Utah to win: See Hypothetical No. 3, which appears to be the Utes' best chance. 

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In Bonagura’s article, he details hypothetical circumstances that will affect the outcome of the Pac-12 South race. Basically, if UCLA wins out, it's in. If UCLA loses to either USC or Stanford and Arizona State wins out, it's in. If both UCLA and Arizona State drop a game, the race becomes much murkier.

At this point five teams are in a position to win the Pac-12 South and meet Oregon in the title game on Dec. 5—UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, USC and Utah. All five teams are ranked in the top 25 of the latest College Football Playoff poll.

As we mentioned, the Ducks have played three of these five teams this season and have gone 2-0 on the road and 0-1 at home. Oregon does not play Arizona State or USC in the 2014 regular season.

Now that we know the potential competitors and have some semblance of an idea who may come out of the South, let’s take a look at how Oregon stacks up against these five teams.

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

Sizing Up the Competition

The most impressive win by any of the five Pac-12 South contenders this season was Arizona’s 31-24 victory over the Ducks in Eugene. However, based on how the five teams rank statistically on offense and defense, it seems as though Oregon will be in for a tough battle regardless of which team it faces.

While the Ducks possess the most potent offense in the Pac-12 and rank No. 3 in the nation in points per game, four of the five Pac-12 South competitors have offenses that rank within the top 32 in the country.

In terms of yards per game, both Arizona and UCLA rank within the top 20 in the nation. Arizona is averaging 492.2 yards per game (No. 16 in the nation) while UCLA ranks just behind them with 489.2 yards per game (No. 17). Arizona State and USC follow them in at No. 29 and No. 34 in the country in yards per game.

Oregon’s struggles on defense have come mostly against the pass this season, and it's ranked No. 123 in pass defense of 128 eligible schools.

The Ducks would do well to avoid a prominent passing attack in the title game. Therefore, it may be best for them to face Utah’s passing offense that ranks No. 99 in the country. Of course, Utah has the toughest road to the Pac-12 title game and would need a ton of help from the other four teams to win the South division. The other four schools are all ranked within the top 31 nationally in terms of passing yards per game, with Arizona leading the charge at No. 14.

Oregon’s defense has shown signs of life in some games this year, but overall it's been one of the poorest units in the nation. However, Oregon’s offense—led by Heisman Trophy candidate Marcus Mariota—has been able to cover up the Ducks’ deficient defense in almost every game this season.

While Mariota is clearly the star of the show for Oregon’s offense, the Ducks are more deadly when they’re able to run the ball at will.

Fortunately for the Ducks, USC has the best rush defense among the five teams as the Trojans are ranked No. 31 in the nation and are giving up an average of 135.1 yards per game. Following USC is Utah at No. 48, Arizona at No. 58, UCLA at No. 64 and Arizona State at No. 80. The Ducks should be able to run the ball against any of the five potential opponents, which should give Oregon a significant advantage.

The Ducks should be able to find even more success through the air, especially if center Hroniss Grasu is able to return to action by Dec. 5. None of the five Pac-12 South teams is ranked above No. 77 in passing defense, which is bad news for them considering the quarterback they’ll be facing in the title game. Arizona State ranks No. 77 in pass defense, followed by Utah (No. 89), UCLA (No. 97), USC (No. 105) and Arizona (No. 120).

Oregon has faced two top-10 defenses in terms of total yards allowed per game this season—Stanford and Michigan State. In those two games, the Ducks offense averaged 45.5 points and 508 yards. Based on their success against those two teams—with a mostly healthy offense—the Ducks should be able to move the ball at will against any of the five Pac-12 South teams.

Currently, Utah has the best defense among the five teams in terms of yards allowed per game. The Utes are ranked No. 63 in the nation and are allowing 388.4 yards per game. In terms of points allowed per game, USC leads the five contenders and is allowing 23.3 points per game.

The Ducks will have a significant advantage offensively against any of these five teams; however, they’ll likely have some trouble on the defensive side of the ball—especially if they have to face Arizona, USC, UCLA or Arizona State.

Of course, it won’t ultimately matter which team has had the most impressive win or is the strongest according to statistics. However, those statistics do give us a clearer view of who the Ducks should want to play in the Pac-12 title game.

STEVE DYKES/Associated Press

Whom Should Oregon Be Rooting For?

Oregon and Stanford have dominated the Pac-12 since 2009, and the schools have combined for the past five Pac-12 Championships, including the only three awarded since the conference introduced a title game in 2011.

The Pac-12 South has struggled against Oregon and Stanford in the three previous conference championship games and has lost by an average of 15 points per game. While the two top Pac-12 South contenders—UCLA and Arizona State—each have Pac-12 Championship Game experience, those games likely aren’t particularly fond memories.

However, this year it seems like the momentum has shifted from the North to the South. With five teams ranked in the College Football Playoff poll's top 25, the Pac-12 South looks more like the SEC West than a division has largely forgotten about for the better part of four years. While the best team in the conference still resides in the North, there is no doubt that the South is the more complete division.

The Ducks shouldn’t be concerning themselves with rooting for a specific team to come out of the South. Yes, it’s beneficial for them to face a team they match up well against. However, the Ducks need to win their next two games before even thinking about whom they’ll play on Dec. 5.

That being said, we’re not part of the program, so we’ll look ahead for them.

While statistics and rankings are useful tools to compare teams and conferences, if you don’t know what to do with those numbers it’s ultimately a waste of time. One place where they definitely know how to use those numbers is in Las Vegas.

Something that is overlooked by many pundits and fans are the Power Rankings released by Las Vegas insiders every week. While statistical analysis is often use by journalists and fans alike, Vegas is years ahead of everyone else when it comes to putting advanced analytics to use.

ESPN’s College Football Vegas Ranks (subscription required) is one of the best tools out there. Here’s how Vegas comes up with these rankings:

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The CFB Vegas Rankings are the composite power ratings of a panel of professional handicappers and college football statisticians, including fellow Insider Phil Steele, Brian Edwards and Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet. The ratings are intended to weigh the relative strength of the teams if they met on a neutral field and to be compared to the point spread on a given game.

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According to the Vegas rankings, the College Football Playoff committee and the AP Poll overvalue Pac-12 South teams.

Team	Pac-12 Record	CFB Playoff Poll	AP Poll	Vegas Rankings
UCLA	5-2	No. 9	No. 11	No. 15
Arizona State	5-2	No. 13	No. 13	No. 20
USC	6-2	No. 19	No. 24	No. 18
Arizona	5-2	No. 15	No. 15	No. 24
Utah	4-3	No. 17	No. 20	No. 19

Based on the Vegas rankings, Arizona and Arizona State are the two worst teams remaining among the five Pac-12 South competitors. While the Ducks have lost their past two games to the Wildcats, it would seem as though the Ducks would be heavily favored against them in the Pac-12 title game.

Oregon does not play Arizona State in the 2014 regular season; however, the Ducks have won eight straight games against the Sun Devils dating back to 2005. It would seem that the Arizona schools would be the best opponents for Oregon to face in the title game. However, there is a case to be made for playing a team that the Ducks are familiar with.

The Ducks emphatically beat UCLA in the Rose Bowl and took out a tough Utah team in Salt Lake City. Oregon would go into the Pac-12 Championship Game against both of those teams with confidence due to those previous victories. However, Vegas values Utah and UCLA highly, and the Bruins and Utes would have a better understanding of this Oregon team if given a second crack.

The wild card here is USC. The Trojans have lost three games this season by a combined 13 points. While they’ve struggled to close out games under first-year coach Steve Sarkisian, they very well may have the most collective talent in the conference behind the Ducks. They’re a scary team with playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Regardless of whom the Ducks face in the title game, they will have the weight of the world on their shoulders, especially if they are able to knock off Colorado and Oregon State.

If the Ducks enter Levi’s Stadium with an 11-1 record, they’ll be playing for a spot in the College Football Playoff, and Marcus Mariota will likely be playing for a Heisman Trophy.

There will be a lot on the line come Dec. 5. The Ducks should not overlook any of the five remaining Pac-12 South competitors.

Statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com unless otherwise stated. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise stated.

Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.