Bowl Predictions 2014: Updated Projections for Playoff Games Before Week 13
For as thrilling as the 2014 college football season has been with stunning upsets, marquee matchups and what promises to be a memorable finish on the way to the first ever College Football Playoff, the Week 13 schedule is lackluster at best.
Playoff contenders Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Mississippi State, Ohio State and Baylor are all at home against overmatched opponents and should rack up some style points.
Of course, if the favorites go into their games with that mindset, we could have a shocking upset or two that turns the postseason race upside down. With that in mind, here is a look at the updated playoff projections heading into Week 13.
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Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Baylor
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Under-the-Radar Week 13 Playoff Game to Watch: Boston College at Florida State
One person who thinks Florida State should be the top-ranked team in the country is Boston College coach Steve Addazio.
He suggested as much in recent comments, according to The Associated Press (h/t USA Today): “How anybody could rationalize it any other way is absolutely mind-blowing to me. These guys find a way to win and they play the best at their most competitive moments. That's usually what great teams do.”
The Seminoles have found a way to win every week, and they should do the same Saturday against Addazio’s squad. From a talent standpoint, this should not be a close game, and that’s not even mentioning the fact that Florida State is at home and playing for much more than Boston College will be Saturday.
However, there has been a disturbing pattern for the Seminoles that could pose a problem against the Eagles.
Florida State has trailed at the half in six of its last 11 games (dating back to the BCS title showdown with Auburn) and has won three games this season in which it trailed by 15 points or more.
The Seminoles even found themselves behind 17-3 against Boston College in the second quarter of last year’s meeting.
Of course, Florida State found a way to win all of those games, largely because defending Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston was a completely different player in the second halves. Here is a look at how much better he has been after intermission, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info:
| Comp-att | 66-94 |
| Comp pct | 70.2 |
| Yds per att | 9.6 |
| TD-INT | 8-2 |
The reason this pattern of slow starts may be a concern Saturday if it pops up again is Boston College is built to play with the lead. It is 12th in the nation in rushing yards per game and features a quarterback in Tyler Murphy who has 1,006 rushing yards and is more comfortable moving the chains with his legs than arm.
Running back Jon Hilliman has also been effective and has 620 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground.
The Eagles shocked USC earlier in the season with an incredible 452 rushing yards as a team. Murphy ran for 191 all by himself, and Hilliman found the end zone on the ground twice. That is the exact formula the Eagles will stick with Saturday when they try to pull off a second incredible upset in the same season, and they will look to grind out the clock if they find themselves with the lead.
However, the other side of the ball could be a problem for a Boston College defense that ranks 65th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game.
The Eagles like to bring pressure, which will put their cornerbacks in a number of one-on-one situations with Florida State’s athletic receivers on the outside. Again, the talent difference will come into play, as Winston will find a number of his playmakers for big plays to open up a lead.
While the Eagles do have the formula to play with an early lead if they can grab one, Florida State will bank on its talent advantage from the opening kick. Eventually, the Seminoles will stop playing with fire and take the early initiative on the scoreboard, and Saturday will be that day.
Style points matter now more than ever with four playoff spots up for grabs and a number of one-loss contenders hanging around.
The Seminoles will rack up plenty of those points Saturday.
Prediction: Florida State 48, Boston College 17
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