NFC North Race: Why Eddie Lacy Will Be Key for the Packers Down the Stretch

The cold weather is arriving. But as December approaches, it is time for the NFL's top playoff contenders to start heating up. 

One of the hottest divisional races this season has taken place in the NFC North. Entering the season, it was widely predicted that the Lions, Packers and Bears would fight for the division title late in the year. That has not been the case.

Through Week 11, the Lions and Packers are tied for the division lead at 7-3. Detroit currently hold the tiebreaker after defeating Green Bay 19-7 in Week 3. The teams will rematch in Week 17 at Lambeau Field, where the Lions have not won since 1991.

But before then, the teams will play five games that could determine the NFC North before the final week. The key for the Packers in the next five games will be Eddie Lacy. Here's why.

Opponents Are Focused on Aaron Rodgers

Sunday, the Eagles made the mistake of playing single high safety coverage against the Packers offense. The result? Aaron Rodgers picked the Eagles apart. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb both topped the 100-yard mark as they were typically covered one-on-one on the outside. Nelson was especially effective against one-on-one, burning cornerback Bradley Fletcher several times.

On the first drive, Nelson got behind Fletcher for a gain of 64 yards. Later in the half, Nelson slipped away again and hauled in a 27-yard touchdown pass. He nearly had a third touchdown pass, but he was interfered with by Fletcher in the end zone.

The Packers' next opponents will not make the same mistake as the Eagles. They will likely play a Cover 2 scheme, inviting the run while dropping extra defenders in coverage. This should open up running lanes for Lacy, as the defense will be doing everything it can to limit Rodgers.

Expect the Packers to recognize this and give Lacy a heavy dose of carries in the next five games.

Another Option in the Passing Game

Lacy has yet to receive 20 carries in a game this season. But that doesn't mean he hasn't been a key weapon for Green Bay. In his last three games, Lacy has 14 receptions for 236 yards and two touchdowns. To put things in perspective, he has as many touchdown catches as Cobb and is 50 receiving yards behind Nelson during that span.

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Lacy was especially impressive on his 32-yard touchdown catch Sunday. He used several spin moves to break tackles and proceeded to carry Eagles defenders the final five yards into the end zone. If the Packers can get the ball to Lacy on short passes, he has shown the ability to make big plays in the open field. His size makes tackling him a tall task for the smaller defensive backs.

Green Bay will look to continue this trend, as it has opened up passing lanes for the already lethal combination of Cobb and Nelson.

The Cold Weather

Temperatures are dropping in the "black and blue" division. That means running the football becomes vital. Teams that run the ball and stop the run in cold weather will likely stick around through January.

Last season, Lacy thrived in cold-weather games. Eight of his 11 touchdowns last season came in the months of November and December. In fact, Lacy scored at least one touchdown in every December game last year.

A big back like Lacy should be feared in cold-weather games, according to Packers.com reporter Vic Ketchman.

"I like pounders, and pounders are best appreciated late in the season in cold and windy conditions," Ketchman says. "I think we're going to begin seeing a lot more of Lacy."

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With the NFC North up for grabs, expect Eddie Lacy to play a huge role leading up to the Week 17 rematch with Detroit. If the Packers can keep Lacy going—especially on the ground, it will be Green Bay's division to lose.