Oakland Raiders Must Help Derek Carr by Starting Latavius Murray

You’ll latch onto the dimmest of bright spots when your team is 0-10. Even the faintest glimmers of hope burn hot like the sun when you’re staring into a black abyss. That’s just the way the cold universe of NFL football works once a team is out of the playoff picture.

While the season flickers on for another six games, the Oakland Raiders need to probe what little talent their 2014 season hasn’t already sucked into a black hole. Maybe they can find a star if they look hard enough and long enough in the right places.

One of them might be second-year running back Latavius Murray, who flashed in a 13-6 loss to the San Diego Chargers Sunday with four carries for 43 yards and three receptions for 16 yards. Considering the running game’s failure to launch in Oakland this season, Murray has done enough to start.

Interim head coach Tony Sparano acknowledged after the game Sunday that the Raiders were trying to get Murray more involved. He ended up playing more than Darren McFadden for the first time this season, and that probably isn't going to change going forward.

"He played a little bit more yesterday and he’s going to continue to do that," Sparano said Monday via Raiders.com. "I like what I’ve seen out of him so far. So in a roundabout way, I’m saying yeah, you’re going to see more of him.”

The Raiders decided quarterback Derek Carr was worthy of a thorough examination by making him the Week 1 starter, but they failed to equip him with the weapons necessary to produce. At least an average running game could have protected Carr, but that never came to fruition.

Maybe Murray’s 10 carries for 54 yards and six receptions for 35 yards on the season are a fluke. Maybe with a bigger sample size Murray falls victim to poor run blocking by the offensive line, just as running backs Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew have this season.

Player	Carries	Rush Yards	Y/A	Y/A After Contact
Darren McFadden	113	393	3.5	1.83
Maurice Jones-Drew	33	70	2.1	1.80
Latavius Murray	10	54	5.4	1.39

Maybe, but the Raiders owe it to themselves and the fans to find out. Murray’s youth and athleticism merit an extended look—especially considering both McFadden and Jones-Drew are unlikely to remain with the team next season.

Helping Carr

Oakland’s running game has been historically bad this season, so Murray couldn’t possibly make it any worse. If it improves, the Raiders could get a glimpse of what Carr might be able to do when he isn’t facing 3rd-and-long on every drive.

Quarterback	ATT.	Comp. %	YDS	TD	INT	Team Rush YDS	YDS/Att.	Rush TD
Andrew Luck	412	57.04	2965	12	12	1104	3.96	8
Peyton Manning	378	55.29	2289	15	20	887	3.53	2
Sam Bradford	376	60.64	2158	14	9	1024	3.79	4
Brandon Weeden	371	55.26	2298	11	12	922	3.87	6
Derek Carr	371	59.84	2075	13	9	630	3.42	2

Just four quarterbacks in history have attempted as many passes as Carr through 10 games of their rookie season. Of the five, Carr’s running game is the worst in terms of yards, yards per carry and touchdowns.

Only once this season have Oakland’s running backs rushed for 100-plus yards, and it just so happened to be Carr’s best game of the season. That’s also not a coincidence.  

Carr’s adjusted-yards-per-pass-attempt statistic is so far mirroring the performance of the Raiders’ running game. It could just be a reflection of the strength of their opponents, but you would expect a greater separation between the two statistics depending on opponents’ specific strengths on defense.

Data via Pro-Football-Reference.com

It’s not exactly scientific proof that the running game will help Carr, but it’s a strong indication of what is widely believed to be true. If the Raiders can be more successful running the ball, they should be able to keep the chains moving and take some pressure off Carr.

The Raiders have actually done a decent job creating manageable third downs for Carr, but he’s not doing a good job picking them up. That’s a problem, but a bigger problem is that the Raiders aren’t getting first downs on any down and distance.

So far this season, the Raiders are averaging a league-worst 4.7 yards per offensive play. The Raiders would need to be superbly efficient on third down to compensate for such a number, but that hasn’t happened.     

Explosive Gains vs. Negative Runs

One of the great equalizers in the game of football is explosive plays. Running plays over 10 yards and passing plays over 20 yards tend to affect things like average yards per carry and yards per pass attempt.

The Raiders have just 16 explosive runs and 20 explosive pass plays in 2014. Both are dead last in the NFL. If the Raiders can create some explosive plays, they won’t need the offense be as efficient on third down.

Although the sample is small, Murray has two explosive plays on just 16 total opportunities. That means 12.5 percent of his touches have been explosive plays. McFadden’s explosive play percentage is just 7.7 percent.

Player	Touches	Explosive Plays	Yards	Negative %	Explosive %
Darren McFadden	142	11	161	15.00%	7.7%
Maurice Jones-Drew	41	2	22	30.30%	4.9%
Latavius Murray	16	2	37	20%	12.5%

If Murray was given the 18 touches per game that have been going to McFadden and Jones-Drew and maintained his ability to produce big plays at the same clip, the Raiders would have at least two more explosive plays per game. League-average production on such runs would be equal to roughly 37 rushing yards per game.

Big plays alone could raise Oakland’s horrid 63 rushing yards per game average to over 100 yards per game. Murray is also a lot bigger than McFadden and Jones-Drew and should be able to push the pile and get extra yards even when the blocking isn’t very good. Murray is listed at 6’3” and 230 pounds, but has moves like a much smaller back.

Even if Murray’s negative run percentage stays around five percent higher than McFadden’s, a negative run only loses about one yard on average. Losing one yard about one time more per game than McFadden is more than offset by the big plays.

Murray also seems more capable of creating his own yards than any other running back on the roster. While many people will be excited about Murray’s big runs again the Chargers, a pedestrian gain of three yards against the stingy Denver Broncos run defense was actually a good illustration of why he should be starting.

NFL Game Rewind

Murray looks to see if there is a cutback lane to the right, but sees a defender filling that gap. With the defenders having beat Oakland’s offensive line to their gaps, Murray makes a quick cut to the outside to gain three yards. A nice play by the defensive end spinning away from left tackle Donald Penn saved an even bigger gain.

It's time to let Murray carry the load to see what he can do with it. The running game can't get worse, but any increase in production is sure to help Carr. With any luck, the Raiders may also have found their running back of the future.  

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.com.