Do the Miami Heat Need to Improve Their Shot Selection?

One of the most interesting memes from the early part of the season was the surprising success of the Miami Heat. They were better than we thought, columnists conceded, before scrambling to explain why a supposed also-ran looked suspiciously like a contender.

Despite the absence of He Who Will Not Be Named, Miami coasted through the early part of its schedule, winning its first three games and five of its first seven in convincing and encouraging fashion.

Alas, 5-2 feels like a long time ago.

In its last three games—two of which came at the American Airlines Arena—the Heat were shut down by the Indiana Pacers, Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks; none of whom have a positive scoring differential on the season. And there went the optimism.

“Three weeks into the NBA season and the Miami Heat are already finding themselves falling victim to unexpected bandwagon hopping,” Rant Sports’ Richard Nurse, among others, lamented.

The biggest component of the Miami problem, of course, is uncorrectable for now. The Heat simply don’t have the talent they did a season ago. If it feels like Miami is creeping back to the middle of the pack, it’s because it has. The roster is a middling group.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t areas that are ripe for improvement—where the Heat can squeeze extra bits of efficiency and productivity from the 2014-15 squad. One of the more obvious is shot selection.

The Heat, simply put, have been making some objectively poor choices with the basketball this season. They’re taking a lot of bad shots and comparatively few good ones.

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According to NBA.com, through Nov. 17, only six teams have taken fewer shots from within five feet of the basket than Miami’s 25.7 a night and just eight have spent less time in the restricted area. This is prime offensive real estate, and Miami is bypassing it.

Similarly, only six teams are taking more 15-19-foot shots per game than Miami’s 14.1. Mid-range attempts are the least efficient in basketball—not only do they lead to fewer points per attempt than other shots, but they lead to comparatively fewer offensive rebounds and subsequent second-chance points—and Miami is devoting too many of its possessions to them.

The Heat are suffering for this. While Miami’s 19th-ranked 97.7 point per game scoring average overstates the extent of its issues—the Heat rank 25th in pace—it has taken a major step back this season. A year after finishing No. 2 in offensive efficiency, according to ESPN, the Heat place 12th.

The problem here starts at the top of Miami’s roster, and its payroll. While Chris Bosh has been occasionally effective for Miami in 2014-15, he hasn’t shown much shot selection discretion.

Before the season began, the widespread assumption was that, with LeBron James in Cleveland, Bosh would take over the mantle of low-post presence for Miami. That assumption has been, well, incorrect.

According to Basketball-Reference.com, only 21.9 percent of Bosh’s attempts have come from within three feet of the hoop. This is not only the lowest mark of the 30-year-old’s career, but it ranks 12th on the Heat. Bosh is Miami’s starting center, and 11 players on his own team have taken a higher percentage of their shots inside than he has.

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Bosh is a unique talent, and his gifts justify his being used in a unique way. He can shoot the daylights out of the basketball from midrange, which has the effect of luring opposing bigs away from the basket and creating more space—and better scoring opportunities—for his teammates. This is fine. But while it was appropriate for Bosh to take that tack as a No. 3 offensive option, it puts too much strain on an offense when the player who takes the most field-goal attempts—which Bosh does—insists on taking so many inefficient shots.

To wit: Through 10 games, Bosh is shooting 41.3 percent from the floor with a true shooting percentage of 52.7. Both are at or near his career-lows.

After going 12-of-49 from the floor in Miami’s three consecutive losses, Bosh admitted to the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson that his performance needed to improve.

“It’s frustrating; the past couple games the shot hasn’t fallen,” Bosh told Jackson. “I’m still trying to find my rhythm everywhere. Most of the shots were good shots, shots I usually make.”

Bosh is half right. The fact that he’s missing them is troubling, but what should be just as disconcerting to Heat fans is the fact that he’s taking them. Fortunately, that’s a problem that’s correctable. Unfortunately, it's not one Bosh, or the Heat, seem to recognize for what it is.