Bowl Projections 2014: Latest Playoff and Selection Committee Games Predictions
What do you get when you mix large and passionate fanbases, conference pride and subjective rankings in the race to the College Football Playoff?
Plenty of controversy and debate.
With four spots up for grabs in the initial College Football Playoff, teams are scrapping and fighting for every last style point, significant victory and resume booster. There are precious few games remaining in the season, and it is now or never if teams want to impress the selection committee.
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With that in mind, here is a look at the latest playoff and selection committee bowl game projections heading into Week 13.
| Bowl | Date | Location | Matchup | Prediction |
| Championship Bowl | Jan. 12 | Arlington, Tex. | Semifinal winners | TBD |
| Sugar Bowl | Jan. 1 | New Orleans, La. | Semifinal | Alabama vs. Baylor |
| Rose Bowl | Jan. 1 | Pasadena, Calif. | Semifinal | Oregon vs. Florida State |
| Cotton Bowl | Jan. 1 | Arlington, Tex. | At-large vs. At-large | TCU vs. Ohio State |
| Orange Bowl | Dec. 31 | Miami, Fla. | ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame | Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi State |
| Fiesta Bowl | Dec. 31 | Glendale, Ariz. | At-large vs. At-large | Michigan State vs.UCLA |
| Peach Bowl | Dec. 31 | Atlanta, Ga. | At-large vs. At-large | Georgia vs. Marshall |
Coveted No. 4 Spot
While there are four playoff spots up for grabs, it is looking safer every week to assume that Florida State, Alabama and Oregon are going to snag three of them. After all, the Seminoles, Crimson Tide and Ducks simply have more talent than their remaining opponents and will cash in on those advantages accordingly with decisive victories.
Florida State is not going to lose to Boston College, Florida or the other ACC representative in the conference championship game.
Alabama is not going to lose to Western Carolina or the SEC East representative in the conference title game, especially since it will likely be the same Missouri squad that lost to Indiana. That leaves a revenge showdown with Auburn in Tuscaloosa in front of a fired-up crowd with a fired-up team.
The Ducks and their high-octane offense simply have too many weapons all over the field to lose to the likes of Colorado or Oregon State. They could also get the same UCLA squad they already blasted once this year in the Pac-12 title contest.
That leaves one coveted spot remaining in the field of four, and the only realistic contenders are Mississippi State, Ohio State, Baylor and TCU.
Don’t look now, but Mississippi State is getting far too much credit for simply being in the SEC compared to what it has actually done on the field.
Yes, it beat Auburn, but that is the same Tigers team that was eviscerated by Georgia on Saturday and lost to a mediocre Texas A&M squad. Yes, Mississippi State beat LSU, but that is the same LSU team that lost to Arkansas in the Razorbacks’ first SEC win since 2012.
SEC defenders may not want to admit it, but Ohio State’s win at Michigan State and Baylor’s win against TCU are both better than any victories Mississippi State has on its resume.
That’s not even mentioning the fact that the selection committee could be a bit harder on the Bulldogs in the final poll if they are not a conference champion. They won’t even be a division champion.
Dan Mullen seems to think his team’s goals are still in front of it, though, according to The Associated Press, via ESPN.com:
"We should feel awful. You should have a sickness in your stomach. We should embrace this feeling to make sure that this feeling doesn't happen again. We'll feel sick tonight but then we'll get over it.
Except for being undefeated, every other goal is still ahead of us.
"
As for Ohio State, it does have that sparkling win at Michigan State (which is more impressive than Oregon’s win in friendly September conditions against those same Spartans), but it also has by far the worst loss of any playoff contender.
Sure, there are legitimate excuses that can be made for the Buckeyes considering it was a mere two weeks after they lost star quarterback Braxton Miller to injury, but Virginia Tech is just not a good football team. That kind of loss is hard to erase, although Ohio State has done a fairly good job of trying with impressive performances on the road against ranked teams the last two weeks.
The Buckeyes’ best chance is if the selection committee goes by the eye test because there may not be a team in the country playing better football than Urban Meyer’s bunch.
Then there is the Big 12 conundrum between Baylor and TCU.
TCU was ahead of Baylor in the most recent rankings, largely because the Horned Frogs played a better nonconference schedule, but at some point that head-to-head win the Bears picked up against TCU earlier in the season will be the deciding factor. What’s more, TCU’s win over Minnesota will not look as impressive if the Golden Gophers lose to Ohio State (already happened), Nebraska and Wisconsin to finish the season.
Baylor also has the game against Kansas State as the carrot dangling on the end of its schedule that will bolster its resume.
At the end of the season, the Bears’ ultimate threat may be Ohio State rather than TCU or Mississippi State, especially since the Buckeyes will be the only one of that group playing in a conference title game. Bleacher Report’s Ben Axelrod noted that momentum seems to be shifting in the Buckeyes’ direction from a perception standpoint:
One thing is for sure—there is bound to be plenty of controversy, arguing and incredible finishes in the upcoming weeks. Buckle up.
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