USC vs. UCLA Complete Game Preview

WHEN: Saturday, Nov. 22; 8 p.m. ET 

WHERE: The Rose Bowl; Pasadena, California

TV: ABC 

The annual UCLA-USC—or USC-UCLA depending on your allegiance—rivalry tilt is among the most heated in the Pac-12 Conference. 

Add that it's one of the few rivalries played between teams in the same city and there's an added layer of intensity between the Trojans and Bruins that makes this one of the more contentious series in all of college football. 

"I've been part of this game so many times," USC head coach Steve Sarkisian said. Saturday's Crosstown Showdown will be Sarkisian's eighth on the Trojans' sideline and his first as the man in charge. 

"I love this rivalry. I think it's a uniquely special one," he said. "It divides households. I've got two older sisters who graduated from UCLA, so I've got to keep an eye on them all week."

UCLA linebacker Myles Jack was first introduced to the rivalry a season ago. He contributed to the Bruins' second consecutive win over the Trojans with a rushing touchdown in the 35-14 decision. 

Jack told me in April that the Bruins' recent success caused a shift in the local scene. 

"L.A. loves winners. As long as we keep winning, L.A. is going to hop on and give us full support," he said. "The sky's the limit and we can take over this city." 

Running Los Angeles has been a theme for this year's contest. USC fans painted a declaration on the UCLA Bruin Bear statue that, despite UCLA's consecutive victories, the city's football landscape belongs to the Trojans. 

"

Apparently USC already got to #UCLA's Bruin bear, a week and a half prior to the rivalry game: pic.twitter.com/lKlWGDO3NQ

— BruinSportsReport (@UCLARivals) November 13, 2014"

More than just bragging rights, ownership of the Victory Bell and by virtue the city are at stake.

With Arizona State's loss at Oregon State on Saturday, UCLA needs only to win its final two to reach the Pac-12 championship game.

A USC win and one more Arizona State loss sends the Trojans to Levi's Stadium.   

Keys to Victory for USC

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Win the Turnover Battle

Despite quarterback Cody Kessler throwing a rare interception in last week's win over Cal, USC remains one of the top teams in turnover margin both in the Pac-12 (No. 3) and nationally (No. 12).

That Kessler has thrown just three picks all year certainly contributes to the Trojans' solid plus-nine turnover margin, while USC ball-carriers have lost just six fumbles. 

This week perhaps more than ever this season, USC must continue to avoid turning over possessions. 

UCLA hasn't generated a ton of turnovers—12 to be exact, which ranks just 103rd among all Football Bowl Subdivision teams—but the Bruins are opportunistic with takeaways, converting four of them into defensive touchdowns.  

They could have had more if penalties not negated consecutive interceptions by cornerback Ishmael Adams and Myles Jack at Colorado on Oct. 25.  

USC's ability to protect the ball on offense is crucial, and equally so is the defense garnering takeaways. 

UCLA has just 12 turnovers on the season, but the Bruins have been prone to coughing up possession at especially detrimental positions on the field. 

Pressure Brett Hundley

Michael Lev of the Orange County Register noted UCLA's protection of quarterback Brett Hundley has improved tremendously in recent weeks. 

"

Upcoming #USC opponent #UCLA allowed 23 sacks in its first 5 games, only 8 in its past 5.

— Michael Lev (@MichaelJLev) November 15, 2014"

Even more noteworthy is that opponents have gotten to Hundley just six times during the Bruins' current four-game win streak. That's no coincidence. 

It may also be no coincidence that a week ahead of facing UCLA's sometimes struggling offensive line, USC defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox called for more consistent blitzing in the Trojans' win over Cal.

"We're going to have to be effective at [the pass rush]," Sarkisian said. "Brett Hundley's just too good. We can't let him stand back there and survey the field, and then when it's not there, tuck the ball and run."

Hundley is clicking in both the pass and run. He's completed on better than 70 percent of his pass attempts in seven of the nine games in which he played the entire contest. His 80.6 completion percentage last time out at Washington was a season high.

And while he is throwing the ball confidently, he's carrying it equally so, as evidenced with his five rushing scores in the last five games.       

Finish

Perhaps the most significant, lingering issue USC has faced this season is letting down in the fourth quarter.

The Trojans saw leads evaporate in the final period in each of their conference losses, and last week Cal cut a three-touchdown margin to just eight points in the closing minutes.

USC has now been outscored 78-66 in fourth quarters on the year. 

Cornerback Kevon Seymour's assessment of his play against the Golden Bears crystallizes the entire team's challenge.

"I started off strong, had a good tackle for loss to start off with," he said. Seymour also recovered a fumble early. "But I've got to have better technique after that.

"We've just got to finish," Seymour added.  

Keys to Victory for UCLA

USA TODAY Sports

Don't Fall Behind Early 

While USC has been its most effective in first quarters, outscoring opponents a whopping 129-22, UCLA has been first-or-miss in opening frames.

The Bruins hold a 60-42 season-long edge through the initial 15 minutes, but failed to score in the first quarter of four different games and managed only a field goal in a fifth.

Early disadvantages cost UCLA in each of its two losses, and the way in which USC deluges opponents in the opening minutes could put the Bruins in a hole similar to that from which they tried unsuccessful to dig out against Oregon.

Bring the Road to the Rose Bowl

With its 44-30 win at Washington, UCLA capped the road portion of its 2014 schedule undefeated. Included in that run was the 62-27 rout of Arizona State that effectively put the Bruins in control of their Pac-12 South destiny.

The formula for UCLA to get to the Pac-12 championship game is simple: Win and you’re in. Add that games against USC and Stanford are both in the friendly confines of the Rose Bowl, and the Bruins might almost seem like shoo-ins.

But UCLA has a losing record in home conference games, only scoring its first such win on Nov. 1.

Playing loose without the pressure brought on by outside expectations has been a recurring theme for UCLA this season, and something more effectively done away from the Rose Bowl.

“There’s a certain routine to traveling that helps you get focused. And then there’s a mindset, a mental toughness you develop over time,” UCLA head coach Jim Mora said. “Going into a stadium that you’re not necessarily familiar with, 70 against 70,000, some of those emotional things you throw out at players.”

Recapturing that same kind of edge this week is essential.

Wear ‘Em Out

Whatever the reason behind them, USC’s fourth-quarter woes are well-documented. And while it was on the 2013 schedule, last year’s Crosstown Showdown would have fit with that repeating storyline of the Trojans’ 2014 season.

UCLA wore down USC last year en route to a 35-14 victory, pouring on 21 second-half points while allowing the Trojans just one score after intermission.

UCLA’s style is well-suited to a 60-minute game against a team notorious for tiring. The Bruins offense is built on tempo, while the defense is physical.

Turning up the intensity in both facets could take its toll on USC over the course of four quarters.

USC Players to Watch

Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

OFFENSE

WR Nelson Agholor 

Standout junior Nelson Agholor made USC history last week with his second consecutive 200-plus-yard receiving game.

"

Pretty good couple of days for #USC WR Nelson Agholor: 200-yard game, Biletnikoff Award semi-finalist, Pac-12 offensive player of the week.

— Dan Greenspan (@DanGreenspan) November 17, 2014

"

There's no telling what he may have planned for an encore, but Agholor will have something in store for the Bruins. That’s his M.O.: improving upon his already stellar play.

Sarkisian said after Thursday’s win that Agholor’s success is the result of consistently pushing to get better. The Trojans will need him to be at his best this week against a UCLA defense that held its last two opponents (Arizona and Washington) to fewer passing yards than Agholor caught for individually.

RB Javorius “Buck” Allen

 Javorius Allen’s streak of consecutive games with 100 yards rushing or more came to an end against Cal. Allen finished with an uncharacteristically unspectacular night

He’ll have plenty of motivation to bounce back—not that he needs it. But Allen should also have more opportunities to make a significant impact if his performance against UCLA a season ago is any indication.

Allen was a bright spot in an otherwise pedestrian offensive showing last year, racking up 123 yards on 20 carries with a touchdown.

Sarkisian has emphasized the importance of USC excelling both in the run and pass all season, and that will be of particular necessity against the Bruins defense. Establishing Allen early is essential to open up the passing attack.

DEFENSE

CB Adoree' Jackson 

Freshman phenom Adoree’ Jackson’s defensive play has improved virtually every week into his debut campaign, Sarkisian said. Last week, he made his return to two-way action with a couple of receptions against Cal.

The re-expansion of his responsibilities, Sarkisian said, was a result of Jackson getting back to 100 percent physically after the Trojans took off the bye week before facing Cal.

“Adoree’ is healthy again. He’d been battling nagging injuries there that he was fighting through,” Sarkisian said. “We need to continue to [use him at wide receiver]. He’s a dynamic player, especially when he has the ball in his hands. And he loves it. He was all for [playing two ways].”

How much Sarkisian opts to use him on offense will be an interesting sub-plot to track on Saturday. UCLA comes in with a highly efficient passing attack that employs a number of wide receivers, so it’s all hands on deck for the USC secondary.

Given that Jackson has been the Trojans’ most effective cornerback through most of the Pac-12 schedule, his defensive presence could prove crucial.

DL Leonard Williams 

USC's effort to pressure Hundley starts up front, and the Trojans' front-line play starts with All-American Leonard Williams.  

Wilcox has typically eschewed blitz packages—so much so that USC blitzed the least of any team in a power-five conference. But with Williams able to penetrate opposing lines from a standard rush, the Trojans have not needed to be as aggressive with linebackers and defensive backs.

Williams comes into Saturday with a team-high six sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss, primarily getting into opposing backfields from the interior of the line.

UCLA had its greatest struggles containing pressure up the middle when it was giving up nearly five sacks per game for the first month-and-a-half of the season, and the Bruins are unlikely to face a player as capable of breaking through as Williams.

UCLA Players to Watch

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

OFFENSE

RB Paul Perkins 

The spark plug of UCLA’s offense, Paul Perkins is a breakout star of 2014. But his potential was plainly evident when the Bruins invaded the Coliseum last November, as Perkins ripped off 5.7 yards per carry, scored a touchdown and hauled in a team-high 79 receiving yards.

Perkins has since evolved into the go-to guy in the Bruins’ multiple-look backfield. His ascent up the school’s single-season rushing records continues with every carry, but so too does the mileage inherent with a heavy workload.

The running back said last week that he welcomed the bye week ahead of facing USC. With an additional week to recharge, Perkins should come out with some extra burst on his runs.   

WR Kenneth Walker

Hundley operates with a deep corps of wide receivers. Yes, the quarterback has his favorite targets Jordan Payton and Devin Fuller, who together have 103 of the Bruins’ 244 total receptions.

But otherwise, Hundley has proven willing to distribute the ball evenly among a variety of teammates. No other Bruin's has made that more apparent than Kenneth Walker.

Walker caught his second touchdown pass of the season two weeks ago at Washington—it was his third total catch of the entire year.

So why keep an eye on a receiver with just three catches in seven games played? Simple: Walker’s grabs have proven to be game-changers.

He’s scored on receptions of 62 yards at Arizona State and 57 yards at Washington. While he may not get the ball often, Walker has proven especially adept at making the most of his opportunities.

DEFENSE

CB Fabian Moreau 

Teammate Adams was already having a stellar year once Fabian Moreau started to produce in the last few games. Now that the two of them are clicking together in the secondary, the Bruins are shaping up to be one of the stingiest pass defenses in the Pac-12.

Moreau has made five of his seven pass break-ups in the Bruins’ last three games, including three in the critical win over Arizona. Moreau is also fresh off making his first interception of the season.

Moreau must keep the positive trajectory going, because he will be tested this week. USC quarterback Cody Kessler is distributing the ball well among the bevy of receivers, and secondary options John “JuJu” Smith and George Farmer are emerging as dangerous complements to Agholor.

Keeping them in check is as vital as limiting Agholor’s impact. To that end, UCLA needs a big night from its entire corps of defensive backs, starting with Moreau.  

DE Takkarist McKinley 

Junior college transfer Takkarist McKinley has played in just six games this season, only gaining eligibility in late September. But he’s been quick to pick up the nuances of defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich’s scheme and has given the Bruins a much-needed pass-rusher off the edge.

“Takk has really come on,” UCLA defensive line coach Angus McClure said. “He’s really doing an excellent job in his assignments with our pressures and different things we do. He’s been spot-on.”

McKinley has 2.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks, and should see more responsibilities for the stretch run, starting with the USC contest.

“The more comfortable he gets, the more we’re going to give him,” McClure said. “He’s come a long way in the last eight weeks.”

McKinley is one of two Bruins playing a prominent role on the defensive line this week whom UCLA didn’t have for the USC game a year ago. He’ll work in tandem with Owamagbe Odighizuwa, who missed all of 2013 with a hip injury.

What They're Saying

USA TODAY Sports

USC

Sarkisian on finishing the season strong: 

"We're 2-0 in November and obviously, we've stated all along the goal is be to 4-0 in November and see what happens [in the Pac-12 South divisional race]. We're on track to do that. ...We can't get to 4-0 without going 3-0." 

 Kessler on USC’s standing in the Pac-12 South:

“How it’s set up right now, we don’t control our destiny. But all we’re focused on is controlling what we can control, obviously. A couple games go our way [USC wins the division], but at the end of the day,  if we don’t handle our business…none of it matters.

“Our main focus right now is UCLA.”

UCLA

Payton on his initial impressions of USC:

“They’re always athletic. They’re always aggressive. They’re always good football players…They recruit the best. We’re excited. It’s always fun to play the crosstown rival.”

Perkins on UCLA’s mindset amid its four-game win streak:

“We’re motivated every day to just come out and work hard. Now we have a clear goal to win out and [win] a Pac-12 championship.”

Prediction

Harry How/Getty Images

Full disclosure: My opinion of this game has changed several times over the course of the season and may very well do so a few more times before kickoff Saturday.

In my defense, USC and UCLA have both gone through their ups and downs. At their peak, each has looked more than capable of capturing the Pac-12 championship. And the winner most certainly could.

Both have also seemingly found their identities more in November than through the first two months.

What that means is you should anticipate a highly competitive, exciting and above all intense rivalry contest in the Rose Bowl.

Last month, I picked USC to steal a win that would effectively eliminate UCLA from Pac-12 contention and reclaim the Trojans’ claim to the city. I am unwavering in my initial belief that the decision will be made by a single possession.

I am also steadfast in that USC will finish 8-4. But whereas Notre Dame has been exposed in the past few weeks, UCLA has played up to its lofty potential on both sides of the ball.

Since the calendar turned to November, the Bruins have looked like the title contenders many expected to see before the season. The College Football Playoff may be a pipe dream for UCLA, but its road to Santa Clara, California, and the Pac-12 championship game looks much clearer now than it did a month ago.

UCLA wins a hard-fought contest truly befitting the intensity of this rivalry. However, I recommend you follow my Twitter account, @kensing45, for any more waffling.

Prediction: UCLA 31, USC 28

Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise cited. Statistics via CFBstats.com.