Italy vs. Croatia: Tactical Preview of Euro 2016 Qualifier
Italy and Croatia meet at San Siro on Sunday evening in Euro 2016 Qualifying Group H's blockbuster clash. Both sides boast three-win streaks and sit on nine points, joint top of the table.
Something's got to give, so let's take a tactical look at this fixture to see how it will play out.
Italy Setup
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Mario Balotelli was recalled to the international setup by Antonio Conte, but the Liverpool man has since withdrawn due to a hamstring complaint, per Sky Sports. That likely leaves Graziano Pelle in line for a second consecutive start.
Andrea Pirlo is also not fit enough to start the contest, meaning Antonio Conte must re-jig his 3-5-2 a little in midfield. He'll need to lower Daniele De Rossi into the deepest role, as Marco Verratti—Pirlo's heir apparent—is not available to replace.
Speaking of De Rossi, the evening will mark his 100th appearance for the Azzurri. He's delighted, obviously, as he told the team's official website, per Sky Sports:
"I will always have a place in my heart for this special game, especially when I can't play anymore. It may be that some younger players will overtake me someday, but still, this game will always be in my heart, it means that I was a part of Italian football history."
It's typical of an Italian's approach to the national setup: committed, hardcore and enthusiastic to the last. Will he cap the 100th appearance with a win?
Croatia Setup
With Croatia things are a little more complicated; the local press often forward suggestions based on training and gossip and it can be difficult to ascertain exactly what manager Niko Kovac is going to do.
That said, the 4-2-3-1 formation should remain and Luka Modric will be at the heart of it all. Local reports suggest Mateo Kovacic will be dropped and Marcelo Brozovic will start in the middle. The 22-year-old has been linked to Arsenal, via The Mirror (h/t The Metro), so perhaps this is a chance for fans to run the rule over him.
Ivan Perisic and Ivica Olic should play wide and are both enjoying strong Bundesliga seasons, while Ivan Rakitic, now of Barcelona, will spearhead the attack from the No. 10 role behind Mario Mandzukic.
Dejan Lovren could drop out for Domagoj Vida due to poor form.
Tactical Point 1: Midfield Generals
Italy are without Pirlo, but this is still a battle between teams built primarily on midfield strength. Conte's 3-5-2 will seek to limit possession for the opposition and place pressure on Modric, while Kovac's setup will look to dominate via Modric and those around him.
De Rossi dropping in to place Pirlo deeper isn't actually the key. The key, it seems, will be the deployment of Claudio Marchisio on Modric to try and disrupt his game. Antonio Candreva could play centrally, too, testing his discipline and skill set.
Kovac will also bank on a hardworking Rakitic to play a destructive role from the No. 10 position—perhaps even paired up on the regista, suffoco-style—to limit Italy's flow.
The winner of the midfield battle is often the winner of the game. No deviations here.
Tactical Point 2: Italy's Attacking Delights
It's important to stifle Italy early in the process of attack for Croatia, and the reason why is simple: they may be down a Balotelli but in his place comes a Ciro Immobile-Graziano Pelle partnership with Antonio Candreva in support. Simone Zaza could play, but he looks well-suited to this system, too.
The Azzurri were criticised for barely beating Malta, but the sea of change affecting the XI made for a low-scoring affair. Immobile, Pelle and Candreva looked good, and that can continue here if Conte's men can work the ball into their areas.
Lovren or Vida? For Pelle it doesn't matter. He's in form, he'll thrive working with a buzzing partner in Immobile, and Candreva will provide the ammunition. Mattia De Sciglio is a strong crosser and will find room on the right if he takes over at right-wing-back; he's a serious threat, too.
Croatia need to dominate possession to keep it out of these three players' feet. If they see too much of it, they'll take over.
