College Football Playoff Rankings: Biggest Takeaways from Week 12

The committee and the polls all had undefeated Mississippi State ranked No. 1 coming into the weekend. But as usual, Las Vegas knew better, as Alabama was a solid favorite entering Saturday's showdown with the Bulldogs.

The Crimson Tide played like it, going wire-to-wire in a 25-20 victory that really wasn't that close. But strangely, when the committee's rankings come out on Tuesday, the Bulldogs will be the only team in its Top 25 that Alabama has beaten. Because of that, Oregon likely will be the new No. 1 team.

Who's No. 1 or No. 2 in reality does not matter much. Since Florida State will remain No. 3 after another close escape, all eyes once again will be on the final playoff spot. TCU had its issues before beating Kansas, but that probably will be enough to keep it at No. 4, with Ohio State and Baylor very much in the mix. Arizona State, stunned by Oregon State in another Pac-12 late show, is probably out of it.

In all, there are fewer than 10 teams still in contention for the four playoff spots:

Conference	Teams (Losses)
ACC	Florida State (0)
Big Ten	Ohio State (1)
Big 12*	TCU (1), Baylor (1)
Pac-12	Oregon (1), UCLA (2)
SEC	Alabama (1), Miss State (1), Ole Miss (2)

Teams that moved up

Big 12

While there's a lot of talk about the SEC landing two teams in the playoff, the conference most likely to pull off that feat now is the Big 12. Precisely because it doesn't have a conference title game, the Big 12 can send both TCU and Baylor to the playoff as co-champions, each with an 11-1 record. It's still a long shot, but if a couple of upsets happen in the title games of the other conferences...you just never know.

SEC West

The two Mississippi teams are still alive for the SEC West title and therefore, a playoff berth. Mississippi State has a slim chance of making the four-team field with an 11-1 record and no division title. But with either Georgia (blown out by Florida) or Missouri (lost to Indiana) destined to win the SEC East, the conference could be left with no team in the playoff if the West winner is upset in the title game.

Florida State

The Noles somehow found a way to survive another close call and now it looks like they have clear sailing toward the playoff with their quest to repeat as national champions intact. Despite the weakness of the ACC and lacking any wins over a Top 25 team (in the upcoming rankings), FSU is now the only power-five team without a loss. It's in if it wins out.

Teams that moved down

Auburn

The Tigers' hopes of repeating as the SEC champion died between the hedges on Saturday. They cannot win the SEC West now and therefore have no shot of getting into the playoff. All Auburn has left is playing spoiler, as an upset victory in the Iron Bowl over Alabama likely will gift the division title to the winner of the Egg Bowl.

Ohio State

The Buckeyes are rolling toward the Big Ten East title, but their window of making the playoff is closing fast. They'll likely face a two-loss Wisconsin team in the Big Ten title game and aside from Michigan State, they will have not beaten a single ranked team. Ohio State needs a lot of help.

Committee's bottom rankings

Seven of the committee's 10 bottom-ranked teams (Nos. 16-25) lost and Utah needed overtime to avoid being the eighth. But the real question is why does the committee bother ranking 25 teams? Its job is to put four teams in the playoff and, to a lesser extent, pick the other eight teams for the New Year's Six bowls. What's the point of aping the polls?

Group-of-five team in the best position

Committee chairman Jeff Long mentioned five teams in contention for the access spot last week, but East Carolina lost again and Northern Illinois is really more of an afterthought. So it remains a three-team race and, with the bottom dropping out of the committee's last rankings, it'll finally have to tip its hand next Tuesday.

Marshall is now only one of two unbeaten FBS teams, having won every game by no fewer than 15 points and with an average margin of victory over 30 points. But the Herd's weak strength of schedule allows both Colorado State and Boise State to stay in contention, as the Broncos remain in control of the Mountain West race despite having one more loss because of their win over the Rams.

Projected conference championship matchups

ACC: Florida State vs. Duke

Big Ten: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin

Pac-12: Oregon vs. UCLA

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia

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