Georgia Football: Blueprint for Dawgs to Crash College Football Playoff

Two weeks ago, Georgia fans were frustrated and downright befuddled as a confounding and embarrassing Bulldog loss to the Florida Gators served as a rude awakening from what had the trappings of a dream season.

Now, just fourteen days later, the dream lives on.

Thanks to a convincing win over the ninth-ranked Auburn Tigers, Georgia now has a chance to re-enter the College Football Playoff conversation.

To be sure, the scenario in which the Bulldogs sneak into the four-team playoff is hardly the most plausible.  But for a team that has had its fair share of highs—Georgia looked dominant in wins over the likes of Clemson, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky and Auburn—and lows (losses to South Carolina and Florida), even entertaining such outcomes is enough to energize a fanbase.

Georgia took two steps in the right direction over the past two weeks, and undoubtedly the selection committee will recognize the merits of the Dawgs’ play following a dominating performance against Auburn.  After all, an equally impressive win over lowly Kentucky combined with the losses of several other contenders to yield a five-position jump from No. 20 to No. 15 in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.

Georgia’s 34-7 win over the Tigers on Saturday should once again propel it up the rankings as the Bulldog victory was one of the most impressive wins of the week.  And fortunately for head coach Mark Richt’s squad, the next two weeks should be equally beneficial.

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Next week, Georgia should move past Charleston Southern with some degree of ease,and in the regular season’s final week the Bulldogs will take on in-state rival Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets are currently 9-2 and firmly planted in the Top 25, but have struggled mightily against the Bulldogs as of late.

If Georgia continues the rivalry’s current trend it will pick up its 13^th win in 14 years, but more importantly the Dawgs will garner another win over a ranked opponent and more confidence from the playoff selection committee.

With any luck, Georgia’s resume-building campaign won’t end there.  If the Missouri Tigers lose to either Tennessee or Arkansas over the coming weeks, Georgia will advance to the conference championship as the winner of the SEC East.  That matchup, presumably against either Alabama or Mississippi State, would give Georgia one final opportunity to show off.

In the interest of earning the best possible win, Georgia fans should probably root for Alabama for the remainder of the regular season as the Bulldogs need the Crimson Tide ranked as highly as possible should they meet in the Georgia Dome in early December.  And of course, Georgia must win this game—regardless of opposition.

If Georgia wins out and claims an SEC Championship, several factors would be in the Bulldogs’ favor. 

First and foremost is the benefit that the Southeastern Conference might receive as the nation’s strongest league.  Winning the SEC could—and possibly should—supersede overall record and negate bad losses.  Closing the year on a five-game winning streak with wins over three ranked opponents (Auburn, Georgia Tech, SEC West champion) and claiming the conference crown would be hard to ignore.

Furthermore, With Mississippi State’s loss to Alabama on Saturday, it is now guaranteed that the loser of the SEC Championship Game will have at least two losses.  If Georgia wins the conference with no more losses than any other team in the conference (which this scenario mandates), it would be unlikely that the Bulldogs would be leapfrogged by another SEC team.  Equally unlikely: the SEC being shunned by the committee entirely.

Outside of the conference, Georgia still needs some help.  This week, several teams including Ohio State, TCU and Florida State struggled against unranked foes.  Those types of performances weigh on committee sentiment, particularly in comparison to Georgia’s lopsided win over Auburn.  The Bulldogs need as many poor performances as possible.

So what does this look like in simplified form?

• Georgia wins out and does so convincingly.
• Missouri loses at least once more, securing the SEC East for Georgia.
• Alabama wins out prior to losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship.
• Mississippi State defeats Ole Miss and pushes the Rebels below Georgia with a third loss.
• Arizona upsets Arizona State and pushes the Sun Devils below Georgia.
• Kansas State upsets Baylor and pushes the Bears below Georgia.
• Ohio State loses to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship and falls below Georgia.
• Arizona, USC, Arizona State or UCLA (all contenders in the Pac-12 South) upsets Oregon in the conference championship game.

Based on the timing of those games, these outcomes would likely vault Georgia above six teams by virtue of resume and record matching.  Along the way, however, Georgia will receive continual bumps for continued success against ranked opponents.

Now, Georgia must focus on handling its business.  After all, an inattention to detail is what got Georgia in this pickle to begin with.  Had the Bulldogs squeezed out a victory over South Carolina earlier in the year or avoided the disastrous performance against Florida, the Dawgs would already have the SEC East locked up and would be focusing on a much more consolidated playoff picture.