College Football Playoff Rankings 2014: Predictions for Week 13

Week 12 of the college football season may not have brought a plethora of upsets, but it did raise significant questions about some of the top playoff contenders.  Florida State and TCU held on for narrow road wins over clearly inferior opponents, Arizona State bowed out of the playoff picture and erstwhile No. 1 Mississippi State no longer has any margin for error after failing to mount much resistance in Tuscaloosa until it was too late.

After Saturday's results, there are still about three to four teams that almost certainly control their own destinies, while three to four more teams could raise serious debate if they win out.  So while there are a pair of clear choices for the top two, at least four or five teams have legitimate claims to the third and fourth playoff slots at the moment.

Let's forecast how the playoff committee may rank its top four on Tuesday night, diving deeper into some of the biggest issues and upcoming games with the top postseason contenders.

1. Oregon Ducks

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Oregon has faced early-season turmoil after their loss against Arizona and questions about Mark Helfrich's viability, but once again, the Ducks are among the small handful of legitimate national-championship contenders.  Idle on Saturday, Oregon will likely take over as the new top-ranked team in the playoff projections, as staying home made them one of the few marquee teams not to take a hit to their resume:

Of course, the Ducks never closed the deal during the BCS era, and if they are to capture the inaugural playoff championship, the defense must continue treading water.  As talented as Marcus Mariota is, the Arizona loss illustrated how little margin for error the potential Heisman winner has.  As Football Outsiders' Brian Fremeau notes (via ESPN Insider, subscription required), Oregon has had issues ending opponents' drives quickly:

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The Oregon defense ranked in the top 40 in this metric in each of the previous seven seasons, halting at least 36 percent of opponent's drives after three or fewer downs each year. This year they are forcing three-and-outs on less than 25 percent of opponent's drives. Getting opponents off the field quickly can facilitate a tempo advantage for the Ducks' offense. Oregon forced Utah off the field without a first down five times last weekend and scored on four of the ensuing five possessions. In their loss to Arizona, the Ducks forced only two three-and-outs.

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The Ducks defense also ranks just 33rd in his Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) metric, standing out like a sore eye among the other top contenders.  Oregon's relatively benign regular-season schedule should stave off any concerns, but a potential Pac-12 Championship meeting against Arizona State could bring those underlying issues to roost.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Some will assert that the Crimson Tide might belong ahead of the Ducks, based on the quality of their wins.  Alabama is the top-ranked team in the aforementioned FEI rankings.  In fact, some believe Nick Saban's crew could ascend all the way to the top:

That would certainly be far from an unreasonable ranking, but Alabama should be no lower than second given that they are now the front-runners in the nation's top conference.  As SI.com's Pete Thamel opines, Blake Sims' progression this season has separated the Tide from the rest of the loaded SEC:

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Sims was the steady quarterback that Alabama needed as its playmakers shined all around him. Yeldon finished the game with 72 rushing yards and a touchdown. Star receiver Amari Cooper caught eight balls for 88 yards with a score. But on that game’s defining, soul-crushing drive, Sims again executed deftly when he needed to. That drive led to what proved to be the winning score, as Mississippi State scored on a Prescott touchdown pass with 15 seconds left to pull the Bulldogs within five.

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Indeed, though the structure of Alabama's offense will never permit Sims to put up gaudy numbers, he still ranks second in the country in ESPN's QBR metric, behind only Mariota.  The Tide's schedule is beginning to open up, with Auburn reeling and the SEC East appearing increasingly meek.  At this point, it would be stunning if Sims and Co. dropped another game to fall out of the playoff.

3. Florida State Seminoles

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The Seminoles were an irrepressible juggernaut in sweeping through the season undefeated last year, but Florida State has appeared significantly more vulnerable in 2014.  After escaping with a four-point win over 6-4 Miami, five of the Seminoles' 10 wins have come via second-half comebacks.  

That form is hardly befitting of their still-perfect record, especially when considering the mediocrity of the ACC.  Jameis Winston continued his disturbing pattern of first-half struggles against the Hurricanes, leading Florida State to just two scoring drives while turning the ball over while the Seminoles were driving.  Indeed, some are beginning to wonder if Florida State is simply skating by on perception:

Apart from a mildly challenging home game against Florida, we probably will not receive any real answers about the defending champs until the playoff.  It is essentially unfathomable to leave out an undefeated major conference champion, especially one that started the season universally ranked No. 1.  Nevertheless, the Seminoles look like long shots to repeat at the moment.

4. Mississippi State Bulldogs

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After emerging as one of the nation's best stories over the first 10 games, Mississippi State came crashing back to reality with their 25-20 defeat at Bryant-Denny, as Alabama maintained a comfortable separation throughout despite a late Bulldogs charge.  However, with just a single loss in the SEC, the Bulldogs still possess a comfortable playoff resume.

TCU fans will likely be up in arms, of course, given that the Horned Frogs are actually the favorites to win their conference with just a single loss.  SEC fans may scoff at the difference in conference strength between theirs and the Big 12, but in reality, the Bulldogs' resume is not nearly as strong as their ranking would have suggested:

However, Mississippi State does have an opportunity to notch a season-ending road victory at Oxford.  At that point, it would become extremely difficult to pass over the Bulldogs, especially considering that TCU lost its premier matchup at Baylor.  Anti-SEC sentiment may boil over if this scenario comes to fruition, but the resumes at this point speak in favor of the Bulldogs.