Bowl Projections 2014: Last-Minute Playoff Predictions Before Week 12
If Week 11 was separation Saturday with six games featuring clashes between ranked teams, Week 12 is a tale of survive and advance.
A number of the nation’s top teams hit the road on Saturday for tricky contests in front of hostile crowds. If any of the home underdogs can pull the upset, it could drastically alter the College Football Playoff picture as the conference championship games quickly approach.
Florida State is at Miami, TCU is at Kansas, Arizona State is at Oregon State, Ohio State is at Minnesota, Auburn is at Georgia, Michigan State is at Maryland, Nebraska is at Wisconsin and LSU is at Arkansas. Every one of those road teams is ranked in the top 17 of the College Football Playoff rankings.
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Of course, there is also the marquee showdown between No. 1 Mississippi State and No. 5 Alabama that takes place in Tuscaloosa.
There is plenty at stake in a critical Week 12, and the new batch of rankings will likely look completely different on Tuesday as a result.
With that in mind, here is a look at the updated bowl predictions before the Week 12 slate kicks off.
Bowl Predictions
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Baylor
Rose Bowl: No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 2 Alabama
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (Semifinal Winners)
Breakdown
Even though undefeated Florida State fell from No. 2 to No. 3 in the latest rankings, the defending champions are making the playoff field if and when it wins out.
The Seminoles have a stiff test against underrated running back Duke Johnson and the Miami Hurricanes on Saturday night, but if they get past that, they will easily handle Boston College and Florida at home before the ACC championship game against (possibly) Duke.
The Blue Devils are an impressive 8-1, but they lost to Miami by two scores, and four of those wins came against the likes of Elon, Troy, Kansas, Tulane. That’s not exactly murderer’s row.
Remember, the Seminoles crushed Duke in last year’s ACC title game and would do it again this time around.
Alabama is also going to win out with its remaining three games all at home before the SEC title contest. College GameDay didn’t exactly paint a pretty picture for those hoping Mississippi State knocks off the Crimson Tide in Week 12:
A loss to Alabama would cripple the Bulldogs’ playoff chances because they still have to travel to Ole Miss and would miss out on the SEC title game. The selection committee is going to put extra emphasis on conference championships at the end of the year, and the Bulldogs wouldn’t even have a division title on their resume.
The nonconference schedule won’t do them any favors either if they are on the bubble, via Jake Trotter of ESPN:
Elsewhere, Oregon moved ahead of undefeated Florida State in the most recent rankings, even with a loss, and controls its own destiny for the playoffs.
Yes, the win over Michigan State lost a bit of luster when Ohio State walked into East Lansing and made the Spartans defense look like a junior-varsity squad, but the Ducks still have conference wins over UCLA, Utah and Stanford and will likely get a crack at Arizona State in the Pac-12 title game.
Whoever wins that is certainly going to be in the field of four, as Arizona State coach Todd Graham insinuated, via Antonio Gonzalez of The Associated Press:
"I do think there's a lot of anticipation about the playoff. I think there's a lot of excitement. I can sense that from the players. I can't imagine winning the conference championship, the Pac-12 champion not being in the four-team playoff. But you got to win. Our focus and anyone who plays in the Pac-12 is to win the Pac-12 championship. We got a shot to do that.
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Oregon and potential Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota will exploit a Sun Devils defense that allowed 62 to UCLA earlier in the year and clinch a postseason spot.
In early bowl projections, I pegged TCU as the fourth playoff team, but these revised predictions believe that Baylor’s head-to-head victory from earlier in the season over the Horned Frogs will carry more weight later in the year.
What’s more, TCU’s nonconference win over Minnesota will lose virtually all of its value when the Golden Gophers drop games against Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin to finish the season.
Baylor and the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense gets three home games against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas State to finish the season. The Bears will win out and leapfrog the Horned Frogs by season’s end as the fourth and final playoff squad.
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