Oregon Football: How Ducks Stack Up Against Other Playoff Contenders

Not many college football teams can say they control their own destiny, but the Oregon Ducks can. 

The Ducks (9-1, 6-1) are currently ranked No. 2 in the College Football Playoff poll and have already clinched the Pac-12 North, meaning they’ll be playing in the Pac-12 Title game on Dec. 5.

According to Bleacher Report’s Ed Feng, the Ducks are currently projected to be the No. 1 overall seed in the Playoff and have a 78 percent chance of being chosen as one of the four semifinalists.

With only two regular-season games and the Pac-12 title game remaining, the Ducks have a very realistic shot of making it to the inaugural College Football Playoff. It’s simple for the Ducks. If they win their next three games—against Colorado, Oregon State and the Pac-12 South champion—they’ll be playing at either the Rose Bowl or the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.

In short, the Ducks control their own fate.

In my mind, there are eight legitimate Playoff contenders, including Oregon. The other seven, in no particular order, are Alabama, Mississippi State, Florida State, TCU, Baylor, Ohio State and Arizona State. Is there a chance a team not on this list can make it into the final four? It’s possible, especially if there’s a two-loss SEC conference champion, but at this point it seems unlikely.

While it may be a bit premature to preview potential semifinal matchups, it’s never too early to take a look at how the Ducks stack up against the seven other Playoff contenders.

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Offense

There’s no doubt that the Ducks have a significant advantage over every other team in the country on offense due to the play they receive from Heisman Trophy front-runner Marcus Mariota.

There are certainly other talented quarterbacks whose teams are still in Playoff contention. 2013 Heisman winner and national champion Jameis Winston is still one of the premier quarterbacks in the country and is known to step up his play in big games.

Others like TCU’s Trevone Boykin, Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett, Baylor’s Bryce Petty and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott are legitimate Heisman contenders and have led their teams to incredible victories all season.

However, Mariota is head and shoulders above the rest of the pack right now. Mariota ranks first in yards per attempt, second in touchdowns, No. 12 in passing yards, No. 10 in interceptions and has the best passer rating in the nation.

Oh yeah, he can also run the ball. The redshirt junior has 524 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns this season. Moreover, Mariota is responsible for the most touchdowns in college football this season with 38—29 passing, eight rushing, one receiving.

While the Ducks only rank fourth in terms of passing yards per game among the top eight teams—behind Baylor, TCU and Florida State—they’ve been by far the most efficient and dynamic. Mariota’s completion percentage of 67.1 and his 29 touchdowns both rank first among quarterbacks on top eight teams.

Oregon’s passing game has been fantastic this year, but its offense is truly predicated on the ability to run the ball. It’s true that the Ducks rushing attack is down a bit this year in terms of overall yards, yet they’re still one of the top-ranked rushing teams in the nation and have the third-best rushing attack among the contenders in terms of yards per game.

The Ducks also have scored the second most touchdowns on the ground among the group of eight.

Mariota may be the star of the show, but the Ducks offense would be in a lot worse shape if it were not for the emergence of true freshman tailback Royce Freeman. Freeman has given Oregon’s offense the ability to run through the tackles and go head-to-head against physical defensive fronts, which is something the program has been unable to do in the past.

On the season, Freeman has rushed for 945 yards—ranked No. 26 in the nation—and has scored 14 touchdowns—an Oregon freshman record and ranked No. 6 in the nation. In terms of running backs among the top eight programs, Freeman ranks second in rushing yards, only trailing Mississippi State junior Josh Robinson.

The Ducks have the fourth-ranked offense in the country in points per game and are fifth in total offense. While TCU and Baylor rank ahead of Oregon in both categories, those two Big 12 teams have yet to face a top-10 defense this year.

Meanwhile, the Ducks have faced Michigan State—ranked No. 10 in total defense—and Stanford—ranked No. 5—and have averaged 508 yards and 45.5 points per game in those two contests.

It’s pretty clear that the Ducks have one of the most dynamic offenses among the eight Playoff contenders and also have the best individual player among those eight teams.

The only questions about Oregon’s offense are the health of its offensive line and the spot left vacant by tight end Pharaoh Brown. Oregon will be without Brown for the rest of the season and the Ducks will ask Johnny Mundt and Evan Baylis to step up in his absence.

Both Mundt and Baylis have played this year. Mundt is more of a pass-catching tight end, while Baylis is Oregon’s best blocking tight end. The Ducks likely won’t be able to replace Brown’s production, but Mundt and Baylis should be able to contribute to Oregon's powerful offense. 

The bigger question revolves around the health of center Hroniss Grasu, who has started 50 consecutive games for Oregon and is the only center Marcus Mariota has really ever worked with. According to Tyson Alger of The Oregonian, offensive line coach Steve Greatwood expects Grasu to miss “a couple of games.”

Yes, the loss of Grasu is huge. However, the Ducks’ schedule from here on out is pretty weak. Oregon’s next two opponents, Colorado and Oregon State, are two of the only three teams in the conference with overall losing records.

If Grasu is able to make it back by the Pac-12 title game, it would be a huge boost to the offense. However, if he’s not able to make it back, at least Mariota and new center Doug Brenner will have had four weeks and two games under their belts together.

No matter how you slice it, the Ducks are well positioned offensively to take on any of the top Playoff contenders. How about defensively? Well, things could get dicey.

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Defense

While Oregon’s offense is perhaps the best of the Playoff contenders, its defense is one of the worst.

Of the eight contenders, the Ducks rank last in total defense, as they’ve given up an average of 456.7 yards per game. Oregon also ranks last in points per game allowed with 25, though the defense is ranked No. 52 nationally in points per game versus No. 107 in total defense.

The Ducks defense has had some solid performances this year against quality opponents, most notably against UCLA, where they held the Bruins to 10 points before allow 20 points in garbage time, and against Michigan State, where the Ducks held the Spartans to three total points in the first, third and fourth quarters combined (we’ll forget about the Spartans 24-point second quarter).

Despite these minor successes, they’ve often been lackadaisical on third downs, where they rank No. 112 in the nation and have allowed opponents to convert on 45.4 percent of fourth downs this season.

On a more positive note, the Ducks are one of the best teams in the country in terms of turnover margin and have been able to sack opposing quarterbacks 26 times this season—ranked No. 23 in the nation—despite not usually sending more than four men into the backfield. The Ducks rank No. 3 in turnover margin and have forced 22 turnovers this season, including at least two in each of the past nine games.

Of the remaining contenders, only TCU has forced more turnovers and has a better turnover margin.

Dating back to 2008, only one team has won the national championship without being ranked in the top 20 in terms of turnover margin. Unfortunately for the Ducks, it was the Auburn Tigers in 2010 that ranked No. 31.

Of the eight Playoff contenders, only TCU, Oregon, Baylor and Arizona State currently rank within the top 20 in turnover margin.

The Ducks definitely don’t have the strongest defense in the country, but they may just have enough playmakers on that side of the ball to make a difference in a big game.

Not only are the Ducks favored to make it to the College Football Playoff according to the algorithm developed by Bleacher Report’s Ed Feng, but they’re also one of the favorites to win the national championship, according to OddsShark.com. As of right now, the Ducks are 9-2 favorites to win the title, which ranks only behind Alabama at 4-1. 

Moreover, Tony Miller and Aaron Kessler of the Golden Nugget Sportsbook have released potential semifinal or national championship lines, and it appears that Oregon would only be underdogs in a playoff game against Alabama, according to Todd Fuhrman of Fox Sports.

If the Golden Nugget lines hold up, Oregon would be three-point underdogs against Alabama but would be favored by three points against Ohio State and Florida State, by four points against Mississippi State and TCU, by five points over Baylor and by 10 points over Arizona State.

In short, both analytics and bookmakers believe the Ducks should waltz over their next three opponents and would match up well against all of the remaining Playoff contenders.

As long as Marcus Mariota is being protected and Oregon’s defense can force multiple turnovers, the Ducks should be able to compete with any team in the entire country. That’s easier said than done, but the Ducks seem poised to make another run at a national title.

Statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com unless otherwise stated. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise stated.

Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.