Bowl Predictions 2014: Projections for Playoffs and Selection Committee Games
The 2014 college football season is only 11 weeks old, and, while that is a small sample size, it is enough to let us know that the four-team playoff waiting at the end has not devalued the regular season.
Every week brings more thrilling excitement, nail-biting finishes and debates over schedule strength, postseason worthiness and the subjectivity of the rankings. The more things change in college football, the more they stay the same.
Another thing the playoffs will not completely devalue is bowl season. While every team wants to make the four-team postseason, there are four selection committee bowl games that will pit some of the nation’s best squads against each other on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
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Think of them like the old BCS games. Sure, Florida State and Auburn were the two playing in last season’s national championship, but Michigan State’s win over Stanford in the Rose Bowl and Clemson’s win over Ohio State in the Orange Bowl were still very important for the respective programs.
With that in mind, here is a look at the updated playoff projections and selection committee games heading into a critical Week 12.
| Bowl | Date | Location | Matchup | Prediction |
| Championship Bowl | Jan. 12 | Arlington, Tex. | Semifinal winners | TBD |
| Sugar Bowl | Jan. 1 | New Orleans, La. | Semifinal | Florida State vs. TCU |
| Rose Bowl | Jan. 1 | Pasadena, Calif. | Semifinal | Oregon vs. Alabama |
| Bowl | Date | Location | Matchup | Prediction |
| Cotton Bowl | Jan. 1 | Arlington, Tex. | At-large vs. At-large | Auburn vs. Michigan State |
| Orange Bowl | Dec. 31 | Miami, Fla. | ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame | Clemson vs. Mississippi State |
| Fiesta Bowl | Dec. 31 | Glendale, Ariz. | At-large vs. At-large | Ohio State vs. Arizona State |
| Peach Bowl | Dec. 31 | Atlanta, Ga. | At-large vs. At-large | Marshall vs. Baylor |
Under-the-Radar Week 12 Game to Watch: Arizona State at Oregon State
The showdown between Mississippi State and Alabama is the marquee game on the Week 12 schedule, and Ohio State’s test against Minnesota, Florida State’s trip to Miami and Auburn’s game against Georgia also jump off the page.
However, the late-night Pac-12 date between Arizona State and Oregon State is one college football fans should keep an eye on because it has significant playoff implications.
The No. 6-ranked Sun Devils finally captured the nation’s attention in Week 11 when they easily handled Notre Dame, but now they have to go on the road and avoid a trap game against an Oregon State team that loves to air it out. If Arizona State is still reveling in its win over Notre Dame or looking ahead to a future clash with Arizona and potential conference championship game with Oregon, the Beavers could pull an upset.
At least coach Todd Graham seems focused on the task at hand, according to STATS LLC, via ESPN.com:
"It definitely has to be right there at the top (of our wins). But our top priority and goal is to win the Pac-12 championship, the Rose Bowl, and then obviously the national championship and we haven't accomplished those goals yet and we have to move on in the locker room and get ready for Oregon State.
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Interestingly, Arizona State has lost four consecutive times at Oregon State and has not won in Corvallis since 2005. However, there is plenty of reason for optimism this time around because of the Sun Devils’ offense against what Oregon State calls a defense.
The Beavers allowed 40.7 points per game the last three times they took the field and saw the opposition run for 673 yards during that stretch.
Arizona State’s balanced attack is 26th in passing yards per game and 44th in rushing yards per game with Taylor Kelly slinging it around and D.J. Foster finding holes behind an impressive offensive line. There is little doubt that the Sun Devils will score early and often against the Beavers, much like they did against Notre Dame.
While we know Arizona State will score, the interesting development to watch will be if Oregon State’s offense can keep up.
Quarterback Sean Mannion boasts the all-time Pac-12 record for career passing yards and has thrown for 739 yards the past two games. What’s more, he has been lethal against the blitz in his career, as Ted Miller of ESPN noted:
However, Mannion has also thrown six interceptions this season, and the Sun Devils feasted off turnovers against Notre Dame, per ESPN Stats & Info:
Arizona State will not have to respect the run (Oregon State is 115th in the nation in rushing yards per game), so it will be up to the secondary if the Sun Devils want to stay in the College Football Playoff hunt. Fortunately for the Sun Devils, they are second in the Pac-12 against the pass at 231.2 yards per game.
Oregon State will find a way to score some points with a dynamic quarterback like Mannion, but it won’t be nearly enough to counter the offensive onslaught we will see from the Sun Devils against the Beavers defense.
This one will be over by the middle of the third quarter.
Prediction: Arizona State 44, Oregon State 27
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