Making the Call on Week 11's Toughest Fantasy Lineup Decisions

This is a big week for fantasy football owners.

We are heading into the home stretch this week, when many fantasy owners may make or miss the playoffs. There are also still byes to contend with, not to mention injuries or players returning from them, making navigating lineup decisions tricky business in some cases.

Need some help? You've come to the right place.

Click through for some help on this week's toughest sit or start decisions.

Start: Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

There are a smattering of running backs coming back from injury this week, but one stands out above the rest.

Ryan Mathews has been out for a while with a sprained MCL, but the San Diego Chargers running back is finally ready to roll this week after the team's bye. He couldn't be coming back at a better time for a floundering offense.

After all, the last time we saw the Chargers they were being shut out by the Miami Dolphins. His replacement, Branden Oliver, has fallen off after a strong start.

Mathews will probably get around 15 touches if all goes well, and they will come against the generous Oakland Raiders defense. Head coach Mike McCoy was quick to downplay Mathews' return (per Eric D. Williams of ESPN), but that's his job. Don't be fooled by his nonchalance:

"

Ryan Mathews does not guarantee us 200 yards rushing. It's the other 10 guys on the field that have to do their jobs better. We've talked about that as a football team. We ran the ball fairly well with No. 43 (Branden Oliver) back there plenty of times. We won five games without these guys. So it's a matter of everyone playing better.

"

Oakland boasts a defense that has given up 24.5 standard fantasy points per game this season to opposing running backs, good for third-most in the league. With the Chargers heavily favored by eight points, that could mean a heavy workload for the backfield in the second half to try to close out the game.

Fantasy Prediction: 14 attempts, 60 yards, one TD; two receptions, 15 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: He may not get a massive workload coming back from injury, but Mathews has a great matchup, and the Chargers could use his legs to get the offense rolling.

Flex Only: Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Last week was a bad time to count on Denver Broncos running back Montee Ball. He wound up being inactive, which was always a danger, but it seemed like a bad idea regardless with Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson handling the load.

Things have changed in Denver.

Hillman is out for a couple of weeks with a sprained foot, per Andrew Mason of DenverBroncos.com, and Ball will finally be active after missing the past five weeks with a groin injury.

Anderson is still around, and he may have won himself a big role in lieu of Hillman after his fantastic performance against the Oakland Raiders last week. Ball has an opportunity to prove himself, however, and he seems motivated after losing some weight recently, per ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold.

The Broncos are favored by eight against the St. Louis Rams despite being on the road. Even if the Broncos don't play him much early, a huge lead could be a great way to get Ball into the game to try to ease him into a bigger workload.

Fantasy Prediction: 11 attempts, 50 yards, zero TDs; three receptions, 30 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: It's a bit risky considering he is just coming back from his groin injury, but Ball should have enough run to be fantasy relevant this week.

Start: Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

The last thing we remember from the San Diego Chargers is a 37-0 drubbing at the hands of the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago. It was a woeful offensive performance all around, one that saw quarterback Philip Rivers score negative fantasy points.

San Diego has had a week off to reflect on matters and make adjustments, and the Chargers head into Week 11 with a far better matchup—the Oakland Raiders at home.

Granted, the Raiders gave them a game last time around. Allen caught just three passes for 27 yards that day, though he did get six targets.

He gets another crack at it this week, this time at home coming off a bye. He is going to get a healthy number of targets. The question is whether he will convert them into a nice game.

The Raiders haven't given up a ton of fantasy points to receivers, but they have been a bit more generous over the past five weeks.

Fantasy Prediction: Six receptions, 105 yards, one TD

Final Verdict: Expect a bounce-back game for Allen and the entire Chargers offense at home against the floundering Raiders.

Flex Only: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

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It was a nice run while it lasted, but it might be time to sell on Larry Fitzgerald if you still can.

The big Arizona Cardinals receiver goes from Carson Palmer back to Drew Stanton at quarterback, a foreboding turn of events for his fantasy owners. After all, Stanton has thrown two touchdowns in his three starts and a third in relief of Palmer last week.

All of those went to rookie receiver John Brown.

Fitzgerald got off to a slow start this season, and it was exacerbated by the fact Stanton was starting for Palmer after Week 1. It looks like he could be in for some down weeks, along with others on that offense. 

Gene Wang of The Washington Post agrees:

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Since Palmer came back from a nerve injury in Week 6, Fitzgerald has had three games of least 98 yards and two with more than 100, including 112 on nine catches in Sunday’s 31-14 win against the St. Louis Rams.

But a season-ending ACL injury to Palmer figures to downgrade Fitzgerald at least to WR2 if not flex status, given how poorly backup Drew Stanton played earlier this season. In three starts, Stanton combined for two touchdowns and never had more than 244 yards passing. Three of Fitzgerald’s worst games this season came while playing with Stanton.

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Still, it's tough to outright bench him until we get another full look. Fitzgerald is teetering on the edge of fantasy irrelevance this week against the vaunted Detroit Lions defense, but don't bench him for a scrub.

Fantasy Prediction: Four receptions, 60 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: Fitzgerald got a big downgrade at quarterback, and the Lions have a tough defense. He is worth starting in the flex, but only if you don't have better options.

Start: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

Last week was a bit of a letdown for Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan.

He had a great matchup against a team he and his offense shredded earlier this season, but Ryan only mustered one touchdown in a 27-17 victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This week gives him a shot at fantasy redemption as he goes up against the tailspinning Carolina Panthers.

Carolina is giving up even more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. The Panthers just got done making Mark Sanchez—of butt fumble fame—look like a star. Granted, the Philadelphia Eagles quarterback looks like a new man, but that is an entirely different conversation.

With receiver Julio Jones primed to blow up for the Falcons, Ryan should thrive in this divisional matchup.

Fantasy Prediction: 23-of-37, 275 yards, two TDs, one INT; two carries, 15 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: The Panthers are awful right now, and the Falcons should be able to move the ball well against them.

Sit: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Russell Wilson is always a threat to run the ball, which makes him safer than most quarterbacks. This week, however, he might have trouble moving the ball.

That's because the Seahawks are on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that is giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

That is not to mention the lackluster wide receiver corps Wilson has at his disposal right now. Golden Tate is gone, as is Percy Harvin after a midseason trade. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Paul Richardson haven't been able to pick up the slack save for a few chances this season.

Oddsmakers have this game at 42.5 points with the Seahawks barely favored. It figures to be a low-scoring affair, and the Seahawks may lean on running back Marshawn Lynch yet again.

Fantasy Prediction: 18-of-29, 175 yards, one TD, one INT; six carries, 45 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: Wilson's legs have helped him overcome difficult matchups in the past, but this is going to be a tough one.

Start: Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

It's time to trust Robert Griffin III.

Well, it helps that he's playing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Washington quarterback is primed for a big game.

The Buccaneers did hold Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan to just one touchdown last week, but they are still giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Griffin, meanwhile, is making his second start after getting his feet wet against the Minnesota Vikings coming back from that ankle injury. He had a fine game on the road against the fourth-best pass defense in the league.

He threw for 251 yards and a touchdown, adding 24 yards on the ground on seven rushing attempts.

The Buccaneers have the second-worst passing defense in the league. With receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon healthy and ready to roll, this could be Griffin's big splash for the 2014 season.

Fantasy Prediction: 20-of-31, 200 yards, two TDs, one INT; five carries, 35 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: Griffin has a great matchup against the Buccaneers this week, and he has some pretty good weapons at his disposal.

Start: Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Colin E. Braley/Associated Press

The arrow is pointing up for Travis Kelce once again.

The Kansas City Chiefs tight end has plenty of upside that we have seen at times this season, but this weekend he will have something more—playing time.

That seems likely with starting tight end Anthony Fasano missing practice all week with a knee bruise, per Randy Covitz of The Kansas City Star. If Fasano winds up missing the game, that should mean an increase in offensive snaps for Kelce.

More importantly, for all their defensive prowess, the Seattle Seahawks haven't defended opposing tight ends all that well this season. They've given up the fourth-most points to the position.

Kelce, meanwhile, is due for a bounce-back after catching just two passes for 19 yards last week.

Fantasy Prediction: Five receptions, 60 yards, one TD

Final Verdict: The Seahawks are a nice matchup for a talented tight end who should see an uptick in playing time.

Sit: Mychal Rivera, TE, Oakland Raiders

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

It's been a nice run for Mychal Rivera—the Oakland Raiders tight end has caught 21 passes for 185 yards and three touchdowns over the past three weeks—but he is heading for a brick wall this weekend.

True, the San Diego Chargers have been more like sheer drapes on defense than a wall in recent weeks, but this is not a good matchup for Rivera. San Diego has given up the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season despite having faced guys like Kansas City's Travis Kelce and Denver's Julius Thomas.

That's not to mention the last time that Rivera faced the Chargers he put up a goose egg on three targets. That was despite a strong game from quarterback Derek Carr.

San Diego saw Carr once, and it's a good bet the Chargers won't seem flat on defense. They are getting healthier on defense to boot, per Matt Calkins of U-T San Diego, which should help them tamp down on the Raiders offense.

Fantasy Prediction: Three receptions, 25 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: The matchup is just not a good one for Rivera, who caught zilch against the Chargers earlier this season. He might not be shut out, but a low-scoring game is in the cards.

Flex Only: Andrew Hawkins, WR, Cleveland Browns

USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Texans are a mess defensively outside of Defensive Player of the Year candidate J.J. Watt. They have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.

Andrew Hawkins was out with injury last week, but he should be back this week to face that sieve-like defense. Before his injury, Hawkins was heavily targeted—he garnered at least nine targets in six of his eight games this seasons.

He wasn't putting up huge numbers with those targets, but he was a nice option in points-per-reception (PPR) formats. With Houston's propensity to give up passing yardage, that could lead to a nice day with the hope of a touchdown to make it a great one.

Fantasy Prediction: Five receptions, 75 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: Hawkins has a great matchup this weekend, making him a sneaky good option that will pay off in a big way if he can get in the end zone.

All fantasy statistics courtesy of FFToday.com. All odds courtesy of OddsShark.com.

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