Bowl Projections 2014: Predicting Final College Football Playoff Picture

The 2014 College Football Playoff picture is murky at best, with three editions of the selection committee's rankings released to date. A convoluted Big 12 combined with a one-loss Oregon leapfrogging reigning champion Florida State makes matters all the more complicated.

One could argue that it's too early to look ahead at what the final Top Four will look like. Alas, that's precisely what is happening now.

Ahead of the final stretch of the regular season, a crossroads showdown between two SEC foes in Mississippi State and Alabama will go a long way in determining how everything shakes out.

Below are predictions for which teams will square off in the Sugar and Rose Bowls and a preview of those potential matchups, along with a breakdown of the prospective championship game.

Sugar Bowl: Florida State (1) vs. TCU (4)

Mark Wallheiser/Associated Press

The high-octane Horned Frogs offense will keep them just inside the Top Four. Baylor will have a chance to prove itself as playoff-worthy in the season finale, but slotting TCU here means that the Bears fall at home in a pressure-packed game against Kansas State.

Meanwhile, thanks to a rather generous ACC schedule, Florida State continues to claw its way to victories and preserve its perfect record, poising itself to enter the postseason as the top-ranked team in the country.

TCU will not have faced a cornerback tandem quite as formidable as the Seminoles' P.J. Williams and Ronald Darby. Bleacher Report draft expert Matt Miller succinctly explains:

Although the FSU secondary has been a bit leakier than expected in 2014, the defensive backfield will have something to prove against a talented but imprecise passer in Horned Frogs star Trevone Boykin. The playmaking signal-caller completes just 58 percent of his throws.

The experience Florida State has would give it the edge here. Last year's Heisman winner, Jameis Winston, had to overcome poor play early in the national title game to lead the Seminoles to a comeback victory as a freshman.

Although his play has dipped in his past two starts, which have featured five total interceptions, Winston has sparked a rally each time, keeping Florida State undefeated regardless of the circumstances.

That's going to count for something once the Seminoles run the regular-season table and set themselves up for another national championship game.

Prediction: Florida State 27, TCU 21

Rose Bowl: Alabama (2) vs. Oregon (3)

This leap by the Crimson Tide obviously comes with the expectation that they topple the College Football Playoff's only No. 1 team in history thus far, Mississippi State, at home this next Saturday.

Alabama can defend the run as well as anyone in the nation and should confine Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott to the pocket, where he'll make mistakes that his counterpart, Blake Sims, won't in Tuscaloosa.

The presence of Prescott will undoubtedly help, but the Tide appear to have his team's number, per ESPN's College GameDay:

As for a potential showdown with the Ducks, Alabama may have more trouble defending the fleeter-of-foot Marcus Mariota, whose dual-threat quarterbacking capabilities are among the best ever seen.

John Middlekauff of Comcast SportsNet is intrigued by Mariota matching wits with Alabama:

The uptempo, balanced attack Oregon throws at opponents is a strong contrast to the Tide's penchant for pounding the rock and wearing their adversaries down. If the Ducks were to strike early and often, it would put Sims in a position in which he'd have to pass often.

Should the likes of Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner and others get the chance to pin their ears back and pressure the pocket, Sims and Alabama would be in serious trouble.

Mariota would prove too much to handle even for Nick Saban's vaunted defense, as the potential top signal-caller in the 2015 NFL draft class is likely determined to end his career in Eugene on a high note.

Prediction: Oregon 35, Alabama 24

Championship Bowl: Florida State vs. Oregon

With how important the quarterback position is at all levels of football, what better way to decide this inaugural title format than by having the two best in the country duel it out?

Winston and Mariota are two of the most compelling figures in recent college football history, and it would only be fitting if they were to square off in the Championship Bowl.

Both QBs have overcome issues on the offensive line to still produce on a weekly basis and have shown extraordinary on-field leadership, but they have starkly different playing styles.

While Mariota runs a quick-strike spread attack, Winston is well-versed in pro-style principles and has a lot more responsibility due to the complexity of the Seminoles offense.

But that isn't to say that Mariota isn't smart or a good decision-maker. In fact, he's probably better than Winston in that regard, evident in Winston's 11 interceptions to Mariota's phenomenal 29-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Oregon coach Mark Helfrich noted how well the Ducks have responded since Mariota became more of a vocal leader this year, per The Associated Press' Ralph D. Russo, via NCAA.com:

"

After every play he had to say something to somebody. Great snap. Great route. We did that with Marcus just to get everything going. He is such a good guy it was vastly positive. And it grew into where he could push guys and subtly demand things in a great way. His credibility as a leader in our program is awesome.

"

In what would likely be a shootout for the ages, Florida State's epic winning streak would finally come to an end, thanks to Mariota, rather than Winston, taking center stage for late-game heroics.

The superiority of Oregon's ground game, combined with cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu doing a passable-enough job on senior Seminoles star receiver Rashad Greene, will be enough to deliver the national championship to the Ducks.

Prediction: Oregon 42, Florida State 38