5 Games That Will Determine Ohio State's Playoff Fate

Urban Meyer and Ohio State surged back into the College Football Playoff race with a convincing 49-37 victory over Michigan State last Saturday, but despite their best efforts, the Buckeyes still need help to make the highly anticipated four-team postseason.

That reality became evident on Tuesday when the latest rankings were released by the selection committee, which slotted Ohio State at No. 8. 

The Buckeyes still have opportunities to impress the pollsters. A road matchup against No. 25 Minnesota will be a tough out this weekend, and if Ohio State can take care of Indiana and Michigan, a trip to the Big Ten title game against a ranked Nebraska or Wisconsin team likely awaits.

But even if the Buckeyes cruise through their remaining schedule and win the conference title game, they'll still need some chaos to make a significant leap in the polls.

With the regular season winding down, which games around the country will impact Ohio State's standing the most? These matchups will be key, because they all involve possible upsets to teams ranked ahead of the Buckeyes. 

No. 1 Mississippi State vs. No. 5 Alabama (November 15)

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This game should put Ohio State fans in a familiar position—rooting against Alabama and the Crimson Tide.

A second loss for the Tide would almost assuredly push them out of the way, allowing the Buckeyes to move up the rankings. The same, however, can't be said with certainty if Mississippi State were to lose, because the Bulldogs would only have one (very respectable) loss while boasting wins over three teams currently ranked in the Top 25 (Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M).

Ohio State should be cheering hard for Mississippi State to win out. That would ensure at least two losses for every other SEC team, leaving the three remaining playoff spots for teams from other conferences.

No. 3 Florida State vs. Miami (November 15)

Will Florida State finally play a complete game and dominate an overmatched opponent, or will it struggle again this weekend when it travels to play a surging Miami team? 

If the Seminoles come out sluggish as they have numerous times this season, the Hurricanes could be the team that finally makes them pay. Miami has a strong running game led by Duke Johnson—who ranks seventh nationally with 1,213 rushing yards—and the 11th-ranked total defense, which will challenge a Seminoles offense that struggles with consistency. 

No. 6 Arizona State vs. No. 14 Arizona (November 28)

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Arizona State rocketed up the polls much like Ohio State last weekend thanks to a 55-31 victory over then-10th-ranked Notre Dame.  

The Pac-12 South is absolutely loaded, as four different teams—Arizona State, UCLA, Arizona and Utah—rank inside the Top 25.

Ohio State's ideal situation would be for the winner of the Pac-12 South to have two losses, and for that team to beat Oregon in the conference title game. That would open the door wide open for the Buckeyes, who currently sit behind two Pac-12 teams in the rankings.

No. 9 Auburn vs. No. 5 Alabama or No. 1 Mississippi State vs. No. 10 Ole Miss (November 29)

Ohio State's rooting interests for these huge SEC matchups will be dependent on the outcome of this weekend's showdown between Mississippi State and Alabama. 

The worst-case scenario for the Buckeyes would be for the SEC West to produce two one-loss teams at year's end. If the Bulldogs can beat the Tide this Saturday, it would eliminate that possibility. But if Alabama comes out on top and both it and Mississippi State enter the final week of SEC play with one loss, the Buckeyes should become big fans of Auburn and Ole Miss.

That's because any one-loss SEC team will have a compelling argument to make the playoff over a hypothetical one-loss Buckeyes team. If both Alabama and Mississippi State have a lone blemish at the end of the year, the SEC could send two teams to the playoff.

No. 13 Kansas State vs. No. 7 Baylor (December 6)

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Perhaps the biggest threat to Ohio State's playoff hopes comes from the pair of one-loss teams in the Big 12. Baylor and TCU have edged Ohio State in the polls, and with no conference title game in the Big 12, the remaining marquee matchups for both teams are very limited. 

That's why the season-ending showdown between Baylor and Kansas State is so important.

The Wildcats have already suffered two losses (Auburn and TCU), so Ohio State will want to see them pull this one out in Waco. It's hard to forecast how the committee will evaluate the Big 12 contenders without a conference title game—whether it will benefit or hurt them—but Ohio State would rather not worry about two one-loss teams from the same conference. 

Other Games of Note

• No. 4 TCU vs. Texas (November 27)
• Florida vs. No. 3 Florida State (November 29)

It's hard to imagine either TCU or Florida State dropping either of these matchups, but as the saying goes, that's why they play the games.

The Longhorns got off to a slow start this season, losing four of their first six games, but things have started to click for Charlie Strong's squad after back-to-back wins over Texas Tech and No. 23 West Virginia. TCU's remaining schedule includes games against Kansas and Iowa State, so Texas provides the only legitimate chance for the Horned Frogs to fall.

Florida doesn't have the most explosive offense, but it has the kind of defense that could slow down Jameis Winston. And if the Gators' rushing attack continues to surge—they've rushed for an average of 316 yards over the last two games—it could make things interesting in Tallahassee. 

If the Buckeyes don't get the chaos they need from the matchups listed above, they'll have to hope for some major upsets in the conference title games on December 6.

All stats via NCAA.com.

David Regimbal covers Ohio State football for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @davidreg412.