Bowl Projections 2014: Updated College Playoff Predictions Before Week 12

Alabama has a golden chance to shake up the College Football Playoff rankings by topping No. 1 Mississippi State on Saturday.

Although placed inside the Top Four by The Associated Press and USA Today, the Crimson Tide sit just outside the edge of one of four playoff nods. If they can follow up an overtime win over LSU with another SEC triumph over the No. 1 Bulldogs, they'll certainly zoom up the leaderboard.

Only three weeks remain this season before the new playoff experiment rises to life. Along with that crucial SEC battle in Tuscaloosa, the other premier squads must handle more manageable opponents to maintain first-class seating in the ranks.

Let's take a look at the CFB rankings heading into Week 12, along with updated predictions for post-week projections.

Bowl	Date	Matchup	Prediction
Sugar	Jan. 1, 2015	Semifinal	No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Oregon
Rose	Jan. 1, 2015	Semifinal	No. 3 Mississippi State vs. No. 2 Florida State

College Football Playoff Outlook

As the SEC clashes in-house, Oregon, Florida State and TCU all face unranked opponents this weekend and throughout the rest of the season. 

The Horned Frogs don't play another winning team this season, but they knocked off three then-ranked adversaries (Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas State) during the past four weeks. ESPN College Football showed how well they fare against stout competition.

A surging offense that has posted 47.2 points per game is well positioned to remain in the voters' good graces. To maintain its surprising No. 4 seed, however, TCU should root for Mississippi State to take Nick Saban's team down a peg.

For that to happen, Heisman hopeful Dak Prescott must triumph against a passing defense that has allowed 185.6 yards per game on 5.7 yards per attempt. As illuminated by College GameDay, each side's strength will collide at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

The Crimson Tide have struggled when facing dual-threat quarterbacks in the past, particularly against Ole Miss' Bo Wallace during their only loss of the season. Saban acknowledged to ESPN.com's Alex Scarborough the challenges Prescott creates as an all-around playmaker.

"

He’s one of the best passing quarterbacks that we’ve played against all year, probably one of the best in the country. It’s a difficult combination when you have a guy that is big and physical and has the ability to run the ball on quarterback runs, which creates another gap, another responsibility, another key. It limits what you can do defensively to try and make sure you’re sound against him running the ball.

"

As a pure passer, however, the junior has faltered lately. In the past four games, he has accrued a 58.1 completion percentage with five interceptions. Such middling production won't cut it against Alabama, which has allowed 13.9 points per game while not yielding more than 23 in a single contest.

Throw in a tough road environment for a team that has played six of nine games at home, and Mississippi State's undefeated run comes to an end on Saturday afternoon. While a loss buries Alabama's CFB hopes, a defeat drops the Bulldogs to 9-1 with three wins over ranked SEC foes.

So long as they can finish off the campaign with triumphs over Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, they'll remain in the playoff picture. In fact, they can fall short against the Crimson Tide and still top them in the rankings.

To the dismay of some fans and the delight of others, the playoff voters showed that they will not overplay the importance of head-to-head matchups. Although TCU lost a 61-58 shootout to Baylor, it remains ahead of its conference rival boasting an identical 8-1 record.

A lopsided contest would dispel that notion, but look for Mississippi State to play tough in defeat. Such an outcome will have both SEC players vying for a championship this winter.