Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers: Breaking Down Atlanta's Game Plan
The Atlanta Falcons could end up leading the division with a win against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. But if they want to win, they have to game-plan properly.
The biggest keys will be to establish the run game, protect Matt Ryan and attack a poor secondary on offense. While on defense, the biggest keys will be to establish a pass rush, stuff the run effectively and be opportunistic in the secondary against the pass.
Offense
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Rushing Attack
In the Falcons' three victories, they committed to the run and wound up rushing for over 100 yards in all three games, including long runs in each one as well. On top of that, they were able to score more touchdowns on the ground in those three games than the rest of the season. The big difference is that the yards-per-carry average really isn't that different from wins versus losses.
Atlanta averages 4.17 yards per carry in its losses versus 4.28 yards per carry in its wins. The issue lies in the amount of carries. In its six losses, Atlanta has just 109 carries for 454 yards. On just 27 fewer carries in its three wins combined, it has 351 yards. Atlanta needs to stick with the running game when it works. Just by making sure the backs get 25 carries a game, a run game would be established.
And while issues on the offensive line seemed to hurt during the losing streak, those, seemingly, have been corrected. If Atlanta continues to run man-blocking concepts for Steven Jackson to run behind like it did against Tampa, there should be running lanes all day. If the Falcons also continue to add a sixth offensive lineman on first downs, it wouldn't hurt.
But the Falcons should consider running more zone and zone stretch concepts for their speedier backs. Devonta Freeman, Antone Smith and Jacquizz Rodgers would all do better with a zone-based rushing scheme, while the offensive line seems to do fine blocking either style. With a commitment to the running game to help grind down the defensive line, it should only help in pass protection.
Pass Protection
Carolina's defensive line has been poor at rushing the passer without Star Lotulelei on the field taking up double-teams. Once he went down against the Eagles, the production from the defensive line dropped off a table. Atlanta faces a challenge with Kawann Short and Charles Johnson, but the other two spots on the defensive line for Carolina are manned by Dwan Edwards and Wes Horton—a pair of mediocre talents.
In reserve, the Falcons don't have much to worry about because of the lack of talent the Panthers currently have along their defensive line. Atlanta's offensive line is also finally starting to turn the corner. Left tackle Jake Matthews looks like he's finally healthy from a high ankle sprain that's been plaguing him all season, and right tackle Ryan Schraeder has been the Falcons' best to play the position all year.
At guard, Justin Blalock and Jon Asamoah have both been rocks and stabilizing forces for the interior of the line. James Stone has been having a much easier time because of who plays next to him. Stone also hasn't looked terrible, either. Atlanta might have its best offensive line since the 2010 season, even with five different guys on injured reserve—Sam Baker, Mike Johnson, Lamar Holmes, Peter Konz and Joe Hawley.
After allowing just two sacks, one hit and 19 hurries over the past two games combined, the offensive line looks like it's ready to have a shot at redemption against what was supposed to be a solid Panthers defensive line. The last time the Falcons played the Panthers, they allowed eight sacks, six hits and 15 hurries. Hopefully, they don't allow anywhere close to that this week.
Passing Attack
The Carolina secondary is one of the weakest ones the Falcons will play all season. At safety, Thomas DeCoud has been average at best while Roman Harper has been mediocre enough to the point that Colin Jones is seeing significant snaps. Melvin White has been solid as a third corner, and Josh Norman looks like he's coming into his own on the outside.
But Antoine Cason has been a huge weak link and should be attacked early and often. Atlanta should be able to burn the Panthers a couple times deep exploiting a poor pass rush combined with slower than usual corners. Julio Jones and Roddy White should both have a field day against the Panthers. The big question is how the Falcons will attack over the middle.
"Everybody on the practice field for the Falcons, including these two playmakers, Julio Jones and Devin Hest... https://t.co/hBbG0BRLgv
— Reid Ferrin (@FalconsRFerrin) November 13, 2014"
Levine Toilolo has been less than stellar as the starting tight end, and both slot receivers—Harry Douglas and Devin Hester—are banged up this week. Atlanta should focus on trying to get Toilolo to have his first breakout game of the season. He's got the raw talent and should be able to have fun against what looks like a bad pair of safeties despite a good linebacker group being active.
The other option would be to have Smith play out wide as a receiver and have White in the slot. Smith has shown that he needs more touches, and the best way to have him destroy a defense is to have him out in space. If the Falcons can get their passing game to White and Jones going, though, they will be able to beat the Panthers soundly.
Defense
Run Defense
The biggest thing the Falcons need to worry about is gap control for their run defense. Carolina's running game has been pretty terrible this year, as they rank just 26th in the NFL with 3.6 yards per carry. However, it's even worse when you take out Cam Newton as a rusher. Without him in there, the Panthers average just 3.35 yards per carry.
A lot of it has to do with just how awful Carolina's offensive line has been. Atlanta has some excellent run-stuffing defensive linemen, and its concept of setting up 3rd-and-longs to help the pass rush should be effective this week. Carolina doesn't seem to have the push up front that it needs to be effective on the ground, regardless of who the running back is.
Atlanta's run defense has been showing flashes the past two games on designed runs. It held the Lions to just 2.55 yards per carry on designed runs while the Buccaneers gained just 2.94 yards per carry on designed runs. With how Atlanta has been controlling the line of scrimmage on run downs, the biggest issue is how it can get after a quarterback on passing downs.
Pass Rush
Attacking Newton in the backfield is the best way to go about beating the Panthers. He looks like he's a bit hobbled from recurring leg injuries based on his film. Carolina also has one of the worst offensive lines in all of the NFL. It has a pair of tackles who shouldn't be playing tackle in the NFL in Nate Chandler and Byron Bell. It also has a trio of guards who are injury-prone and inexperienced.
On top of that, Ryan Kalil hasn't looked like a good center all season. Atlanta needs to force Kalil into double-teams with guards Andrew Norwell, Trai Turner and Amini Silatolu every play. Then, it need to stunt a linebacker or end behind them. Newton is the kind of quarterback who can break containment, but if Atlanta puts Kemal Ishmael on him in a spy-style setup, it could be for the best.
Carolina's offensive line as a whole has underperformed in pass protection all season. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), 25 sacks, 15 hits and 97 pressures have been given up by the offensive line alone this season. For comparison, Atlanta's offensive line has given up 10 sacks, 20 hits and 80 hurries on more dropbacks this year than Carolina.
Due to the weak receiving targets Newton has, Atlanta could combine press concepts in coverage with good pass rush design to destroy the mediocrity on Carolina's offensive line. Osi Umenyiora, Kroy Biermann and Jonathan Massaquoi have all shown flashes of pass-rushing talent this season. If all three of them can go at full speed, Atlanta could get four or five sacks from just those three guys.
Add in some interior blitzes from Prince Shembo and Paul Worrilow, and the Falcons might just have a way to stop Newton quickly on every play. The only real question is whether the defensive tackle rotation of Ra'Shede Hageman, Paul Soliai, Tyson Jackson, Corey Peters and Jonathan Babineaux will be able to generate enough push up the middle to force those double-teams needed to run blitz and stunt concepts.
Coverage
Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen seem to be the two who would cause the most headaches for the Falcons. Outside of them, the combination of DeAngelo Williams and Fozzy Whittaker out of the backfield could also cause some trouble. But Atlanta has the defenders to completely neutralize Benjamin if it just plays Desmond Trufant one-on-one with him.
Olsen is a much tougher matchup, but mixing man, bracket and zone concepts should do well to hold him off, too. With how the pass rush should be able to create pressure, the coverage concepts should be more focused on creating turnovers and gambling than worrying about keeping plays in front. Newton won't have a ton of time to allow these receivers to get open.
The biggest concern that Atlanta's coverage should have is whether or not Newton takes off running. He seemed to be hobbled by injuries during the Eagles game, and should he still be injured, it could be a good chance for Atlanta to put forth one of its best defensive efforts of the 2014 season. Atlanta needs a game to make a statement that it is going to compete for the division. This week's game could be it.
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.
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