What Trade Will Finally Fix Crowded LA Dodgers' Outfield Situation?

It’s no secret the Los Angeles Dodgers have more quality outfielders on the roster than any one club needs.

Between Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford, the group has nine All-Star appearances, four Gold Glove awards and four Silver Slugger awards. And that’s not taking the considerable talents of Scott Van Slyke and Joc Pederson into account.

With the excess, unfortunately, comes the reality that the combined weight of their contracts are cumbersome, and there isn’t enough playing time to keep each of them satiated. Simply put, the Dodgers have too much of a good thing, and it's becoming problematic.

Steven Senne/Associated Press

The issues are not lost on the front office.

To that effect, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has stated that he plans on trading one of them between the general managers meetings that recently ended and the beginning of spring training. “I think it’s most likely the best course of action to move one of those players," Friedman said, via Mark Saxon from ESPNLosAngeles.com.

Logically, we can assume that Puig is off the table. He is under team control through 2019, earns a moderate salary and is not part of the problem. Moreover, Dylan Hernandez from the Los Angeles Times recently noted that there is a “mandate to not trade” him from up top.

That leaves Kemp, Crawford and Ethier as the candidates to be moved in an effort to fix the crowded situation.

There are two directions the Dodgers can take in find a solution. Of course, each option revolves around creating space in the outfield and clearing up payroll, but is the end game of the trade to shed the most payroll and get the best return, or to be as competitive as possible in 2015?

If we are looking at getting the best return and slashing an extraordinary amount of salary, moving Kemp is the play. He is the best of the available bunch at the plate and has the highest contract with $107 million still owed through 2019.

The problem is that if the Dodgers move Kemp, the offense will suffer tremendously. He is easily the best right-handed hitter in the lineup (or second best, depending on how you view Puig), and the balance he provides with his speed and power cannot be replaced.

Simply put, Kemp brings too much to the table to be traded if the Dodgers want to field the best lineup possible. And seeing as how he can play an adequate center field as well as left, he brings enough defensively to make him a piece not easily parted with.

That leaves Crawford and Ethier.

Crawford, who put up a 300/.339/.429 slash line with eight home runs, 46 RBI and 23 stolen bases in only 343 at-bats last season, would surely demand more of a return, but seeing as how he only has so much value from a production standpoint, the Dodgers won’t simply be able to use him in a swap of inflated contracts.

And that is what is going to fix the situation.

Newly installed GM Farhan Zaidi’s best course of action is to unload Ethier, who is owed a minimum of $56 million through 2017, for a pitcher in a swap of poorly placed money. Simultaneously, he would open up the outfield and bring in a replacement for the recently retired Josh Beckett without adding a cent to the payroll.

There are multiple options.

The Chicago White Sox, for example, have an albatross of a contract in the form of John Danks sitting on the 25-man roster and desperately need to add a left-handed bat to the lineup.

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

The problem is that Danks is a lefty, and the Dodgers are best served adding a right-handed pitcher to the back end of the rotation to complement Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-jin Ryu. Another thing to consider is that Danks only has two years and $28.5 million remaining on his contract, meaning that the Dodgers would either have to send a significant prospect or a quite a bit of coin over to finalize a trade.

Nick Cafardo from The Boston Globe added shortstop Alexei Ramirez's name to the conversation on Sunday. Citing an "internal debate" among Dodgers' brass about how to fill the void at short once Hanley Ramirez is officially on another club, Cafardo wrote that the White Sox mainstay "has become a popular name in trade rumors, and they would deal him."

To be sure, Ethier’s versatility and ability to reach base (lifetime .359 on-base percentage) could play well on the South Side. Unfortunately, the scenario involving Danks isn't an ideal fit for either side, and it seems unlikely that the White Sox would part with Ramirez for Ethier. Much more would have to be involved.

Enter Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco.

Yes, the Dodgers let the right-hander walk after the 2013 season, but he was effective following his acquisition from the Miami Marlins, posting a 3.52 ERA, 3.15 FIP and a 1.195 WHIP over 16 appearances (15 starts).

True, Nolasco was awful last season, compiling a 5.38 ERA, 4.30 FIP and an unfathomable 1.516 WHIP in 27 starts, but he hasn’t lost it completely:

	Fourseam	Sinker	Slider	Splitter	Slow Curve
2013	91.33	91.07	82.95	80.87	75.36
2014	91.41	91.04	82.73	80.68	74.95

The real reason for the decrease in production last season from the year prior (13-11, 3.70 ERA) is that the swing percentage on his slider and splitter fell from 51.72 percent and 55.01 percent to 48.94 percent and 45.79 percent, respectively, according to BrooksBaseball.net.

It must be noted that the reduced swing rate was largely due to poor location, but each metric from 2014 was the lowest percentage Nolasco has recorded since 2008.

Ultimately, the maintenance of Nolasco’s velocity and the drop in swing rate tells us that the chance of a rebound on the mound is high. He must locate his repertoire more effectively to induce more swings and misses, of course, but he is by no means through. 

Nolasco’s also owed a minimum of $36 million over the next three seasons, which could rise to $49 million if his 2018 vesting option based on innings pitched in 2016 and 2017 kicks in. In other words, the salary figures for these two change-of-scenery candidates line up more favorably than they do in a deal involving Danks.

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Also keep in mind that the Twins are in dire need of outfield help. Not only would Ethier provide manager Paul Molitor with the ability to set his lineup more effectively, but he would then be able to play Danny Santana at shortstop, which is his natural position. No direct offense to Eduardo Escobar, but Santana is better in almost every way.

Cash will have to be sent to the Twins to make up some of the salary difference, of course, but the amount will be considerably lower than it will be if Ethier were sent to the White Sox or if Crawford or Kemp were the player moved.

All told, the Dodgers have many options this offseason, and Ethier and cash to the Twins for Nolasco is but one way to fix the problem.

It is a rare change-of-scenery trade, however, that benefits both clubs—on paper, at least.

Unless otherwise noted, traditional and advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Contract information pulled from Cots Contracts. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.

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