Bowl Projections 2014: Playoff Predictions and Pairings for Top Teams
We're entering the home stretch of the college football season now, folks, and it feels as though we know less than when we started.
The Big 12 could end up offering the selection committee a really interesting choice between Baylor and TCU. The SEC West remains a cloudy, competitive mess. The Pac-12 feels like a two-team race between Oregon and Arizona State but you never know. The Big Ten feels like a two-team race between Ohio State and Nebraska but, again, you never know.
But hey, why not try to predict how this jumbled mess of confusion and possible outcomes will play out? Below, I'll do just that, making predictions for the four playoff seeds and the top bowl matchups after that.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Playoff Seeds
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. TCU
Playoff Analysis
Florida State has a cupcake schedule the rest of the way, so they're an obvious choice to finish undefeated and atop the rankings. The No. 2 team is where things really get interesting.
The SEC West has been so tight this year that the deciding factor in the division may just be that Alabama faces both Mississippi State and Auburn at home. That advantage against the two toughest teams they'll play this year is why I see them winning out and reaching the playoff.
Oregon is another fairly easy call. The Ducks are cruising right now and are on a collision course with Arizona State in the Pac-12 championship. That win would be the final feather in their cap, as would be the conference title, something that will certainly factor in heavily with the committee.
Conference championships are why I think you'll see TCU at No. 4. Their schedule, in general, is more impressive than either Ohio State's or Nebraska's—whichever team wins the Big Ten—and I just can't see the committee snubbing TCU for a Buckeyes team that has a really bad loss to Virginia Tech.
But what about Mississippi State? Let's say their only loss on the season is a tight road loss to Alabama. Is their incredibly impressive resume enough to get them into the playoff despite not even reaching their conference championship?
I don't think so. Maybe if there wasn't a team out there with as strong a resume as TCU, yes, they'd get in. But TCU will be a conference champion with wins over Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas State and a three-point loss on the road to a good Baylor team.
Yes, in this scenario I envision Baylor losing to Kansas State. If they don't lose that game and end up winning the Big 12, well, then things will get really interesting.
The Best of the Rest
Cotton Bowl: Kansas State vs. Marshall
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State vs. Michigan State
Orange Bowl: Duke vs. Ohio State
Peach Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Baylor
Best of the Rest Analysis
Good luck trying to figure this out right now.
For starters, we all want to see Marshall in one of the other big four bowls if they go undefeated, right? So let's just make that happen here. And should Duke win out until the ACC title game, a very strong possibility, they'll be an automatic selection for the Orange Bowl.
Teams like Mississippi State, Ohio State and Arizona State will undoubtedly be represented in some bowl, likely matched up to a geographical fit. So that leaves three spots open, likely to the top three teams represented in the rankings.
For now, I'm going with Kansas State, Michigan State and Baylor, with apologies to Notre Dame. The Mississippi State versus Baylor matchup would be a ton of fun and a great geographical fit, while Kansas State will likely be ranked ahead of Baylor and thus set up with the Cotton Bowl.
The Fiesta Bowl would end up with a de facto Rose Bowl matchup, while we would get the opportunity to see just how legit Marshall and Duke really are. Not a bad appetizer, right?
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
