NFL Predictions: Week 11 Awards Watch

The 2014 NFL season is entering Turn 4 as we speed toward Week 11, and that means one thing—awards season is coming.

Well, it means more than one thing, but now is a good time to start looking at candidates for NFL awards. The big picture is starting to come together, both for teams and individual players.

Let's take a look at the top five candidates for each major NFL award. These guys are at the top of their games, whether it's statistically or by national narrative. Each week, we'll update the candidates and the likely winner for each award as we head for the home stretch.

Most Valuable Player

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

In The Running

NFL MVP Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	N/A
2	Peyton Manning	QB	Broncos	N/A
3	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	N/A
4	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	N/A
5	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	N/A

 

Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Up until about midway through the second quarter of the Lambeau Massacre, Aaron Rodgers was practically an afterthought in the race for Most Valuable Player.

Green Bay's surgeon-quarterback may have been on some radars, but performances around the league had shunted him out of any real conversation. Then he tossed six touchdowns in a half against the Chicago Bears.

You may note that the top five consists of strictly quarterbacks. While it might be fun to think about other positions, the MVP award is shaping up to be an arms race. 

Houston Texans defensive end JJ Watt and Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray are worthy candidates too, but both would have to have absurd campaigns to have a realistic shot at the award. Both have fallen off a bit in recent weeks, overshadowed by massive performances by quarterbacks.

Murray has fallen off the 2,000-yard pace, and his team has done well in spite of mediocre output (or vice versa) in the past several weeks.

Watt is still the most dominant defender in the land, but the odds are stacked against him because of his position. It doesn't help that the Texans have fallen out of the playoff picture for now.

Of these top five, Ben Roethlisberger is by far on the shakiest ground. His 12 touchdown passes in two games are already becoming a distant memory after the Pittsburgh Steelers laid down against the woeful New York Jets. 

Right now, there is little question who should be at the top of the heap. Andrew Luck has been outstanding for the Indianapolis Colts, leading the league in yardage and second in passing touchdowns.

The problem has been a lack of efficiency, something Rodgers has mastered. To wit, the Packers quarterback has 116 fewer passing attempts than Luck yet trails the third-year quarterback by just one passing touchdown.

This is shaping up to be a similar finish to the 2011 MVP race, one that Rodgers won over New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees. 

The latter had the better raw numbers—a record-breaking 5,476 passing yards to go with 46 touchdowns—but Rodgers was ruthlessly efficient, leading the league with 9.0 yards per attempt and setting the record for passer rating. Rodgers is threatening his own record after that explosion against the Bears, and he leads the league in yards per attempt with 8.7 while throwing just three interceptions.  

Beyond the numbers, of course, is the question about where each team would be without its MVP candidate. That is certainly debatable, but one thing seems sure—none of these teams would be in playoff contention without their stud quarterback.

Of course, if the Packers falter down the stretch and fail to secure the division, then chances are Luck or Manning will swoop in and take the award. For now, though, Rodgers has his offense humming, and Green Bay has a great chance to reel in the Detroit Lions for the division crown.

Coach of the Year

Matt York/Associated Press

In The Running

NFL Coach of the Year Race

Rank	Coach	Team	Last Week
1	Bruce Arians	Cardinals	N/A
2	Jim Caldwell	Lions	N/A
3	Mike Pettine	Browns	N/A
4	Chip Kelly	Eagles	N/A
5	Bill Belichick	Patriots	N/A

 

Winner: Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals

Before the season began, who had the Arizona Cardinals pegged as the best team in the league after 10 weeks?

Bruce Arians probably did.

Arizona's head coach has instilled a winning attitude in a team that has been ravaged by injury and suspension, including time missed by stud defensive lineman Calais Campbell and a starting quarterback, Carson Palmer, who will have missed a total of 10 games when the season is over.

Admiration for Arians' work is widespread, as ESPN.com's Mike Sando wrote (subscription required): 

"

After the Cardinals' 28-10 victory in Dallas on Sunday, I called around the league for insights on Arians and other candidates worth a closer look at the season's midpoint.

One veteran player from another NFC team said Arians' players rave about him both as a coach and as a person. "I was doing my homework before free agency one year and contacted a coach of mine who knew Arians," this player said Monday. "The coach told me if the decision was close, sign with the Colts [then Arians' team] because Bruce Arians is the best coach he'd ever been around. That was my first experience, and I've heard remarkable things ever since."

"

The Cardinals are 8-1 and lead what most people pegged as the NFL's toughest division, featuring the defending Super Bowl champions.

The league's second-biggest surprise currently sits atop the NFC North division. 

That would be Jim Caldwell's Detroit Lions, who have stunned the league with the second-best record on the wings of several come-from-behind victories. Where former head coach Jim Schwartz's team might have wilted in years past, Caldwell's team has thrived.

Arians is well on his way to winning the award right now, barring an epic collapse over the next seven weeks. Considering how well the Cardinals have played this season, despite dealing with big injuries, it's a good bet they will finish strong.

Who could have thunk the Cleveland Browns would be in first place in November? That's where head coach Mike Pettine—originally a major oversight in this piece—has his team right now, a breath of fresh air near Lake Michigan.

Pettine is doing it despite his best receiver suspended for most of the year and having a career backup quarterback starting for his team. He is also doing it in the face of traditional powers like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens.

Were it not for the extraordinary seasons we are seeing in Arizona, Detroit and Cleveland, Chip Kelly would be a veritable shoo-in for the award. The Philadelphia Eagles are on top of the NFC yet again, and Kelly has his team performing despite quarterback Nick Foles' regression and ultimate injury. The fact that Kelly turned Mark Sanchez into a quality starter should be reason alone to consider him for the award.

Then there is emperor Bill Belichick, who looked death in the eye and laughed after the New England Patriots were left in its hands by the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4.

If the Cardinals, Browns and Lions wind up winning their divisions, this award is going to be rather tough to dole out. How about a three-way tie?

Offensive Player of the Year

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

In The Running

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	N/A
2	Peyton Manning	QB	Broncos	N/A
3	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	N/A
4	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	N/A
5	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	N/A

 

Winner: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

As is often the case, the Offensive Player of the Year award will be a consolation prize to the MVP runner-up. That man, for now, seems to be Luck. Yes, he is also atop the MVP leaderboard, but this is assuming Rodgers wins in the end. The third-year Colts quarterback is on pace to threaten Manning's records from a year ago, after all.

Of course, Manning could easily overtake Luck—he already erased Luck's touchdown lead with a five-score performance last week against the Oakland Raiders. Considering how much these two are chucking the ball, it's going to be a wild race to the finish.

The dark horse to win this award rides in Dallas, where DeMarco Murray got off to a white-hot start. He has cooled over the past couple of games, but a strong second half could get Murray over the 2,000-yard hump. He still has a shot at the rushing record too.

Should that come to pass, it'll be difficult to avoid putting him at the top of his list. But it will be difficult to get there, as we have seen through the NFL ages.

While Rodgers has a strong MVP case, his raw numbers may not be enough to get him past rivals Luck and Manning. And for as well as Brady has been playing over the past several weeks, he put himself behind the eight ball for any awards after his horrendous start to the season.

Defensive Player of the Year

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

In The Running

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	JJ Watt	TE	Texans	N/A
2	Justin Houston	OLB	Chiefs	N/A
3	Cameron Wake	DE	Dolphins	N/A
4	Ndamukong Suh	DT	Lions	N/A
5	Luke Kuechly	ILB	Panthers	N/A

 

Winner: JJ Watt, DE, Houston Texans

Could there be a bigger shoo-in for Defensive Player of the Year than JJ Watt?

Simply put, the Houston Texans defensive end is the most dominant defensive player in the league, and it isn't close. Watt would be a legitimate MVP candidate if his team was better—an unfortunate statement, yes, but it is the reality of the award.

Once again, Watt is far and away the top-rated player in the league, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He is blowing the league away in total quarterback pressures, despite the fact that he plays defensive end in a 3-4 scheme.

Heck, Watt has even caught a touchdown pass on offense to go along with a fumble and interception return for scores on the defensive side.

Justin Houston has reprised his role as quarterback terrorizer for the Kansas City Chiefs, leading the league in sacks. He has been lethal, but he hasn't received nearly the attention Watt has gotten, as ESPN's Adam Schefter put it:

"

This season, Watt leads the NFL in "disrupted dropbacks" -- which includes sacks, passes defended, interceptions and batted balls -- with 15½. Next on the list is Houston with 13.

Watt is the best player on the NFL's 27th-rated defense (in terms of yards per game); Houston is the best player on the NFL's fifth-best defense.

Houston has done almost everything Watt has -- without the headlines, without the attention, without the new contract. Houston is the Best Defensive Player No One Talks About. The talk, the attention, the headlines, the contract -- those all will come.

"

Down in Miami, the Dolphins have put together one of the league's best defenses. Their best defensive player happens to be one of the best pass-rushers in the league, defensive end Cameron Wake.

None of the competition really stacks up to Watt, however, despite the fact that his teammates seem to drag his unit down.

Of course, it seemed like Watt should win the award last season for similar reasons, but Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly won on the wings of his tackle count.

Incidentally, Kuechly leads the league in tackles again this season, which automatically boosts his chances to actually win the award, despite more deserving competition. That's no knock on Kuechly, who is a great player, but Watt and others have simply been better.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Rob Carr/Getty Images

In The Running

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Panthers	N/A
2	Sammy Watkins	WR	Bills	N/A
3	John Brown	WR	Cardinals	N/A
4	Mike Evans	WR	Buccaneers	N/A
5	Zack Martin	OG	Cowboys	N/A

 

Winner: Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

It's the Year of the Wide Receiver, at least as far as rookies go.

The rookie class is on pace to blow away all other rookie classes, and no single greenhorn has pulled away from the competition.

For a little while, it seemed like Carolina's new No. 1 receiver would run away with the award. Kelvin Benjamin has cooled a bit, but he is still among the rookie leaders in receptions and yardage, and he leads his class in touchdowns.

Granted, context is key—Newton has been awful at times, including during much of his matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football before catching a pair of meaningless touchdowns late in the game.

That and his team's record are reasons why Buffalo's Sammy Watkins should catch Benjamin for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors this season.

Watkins has come on strong following a slow start after being handicapped by injury and quarterback, and he has been a big reason for Buffalo's unexpected success. He is a more consistent player than Benjamin is, and that should help Watkins catch his peer in the race.

As for John Brown, well, the diminutive rookie has made a big impact for the Cardinals. His stats aren't as gaudy as those of some of his peers, but Brown has put them up when they count most. 

Brown now has four game-winning touchdown receptions—half of Arizona's eight victories—on the season, per Kyle Odegard of AZCardinals.com, including a 75-yard bomb against the Philadelphia Eagles and a 48-yard go-ahead score from backup quarterback Drew Stanton just last week.

In the end, however, he will be too far behind, statistically, to win the award. Being the No. 3 receiver on his own team will ensure that. But despite that long touchdown pass, Stanton isn't quite the starter Carson Palmer was before getting knocked out for the season with a knee injury.

You may note Saints receiver Brandin Cooks is conspicuously missing here. He is certainly deserving to be in the discussion, what with him leading rookie wideouts in receptions and all.

At some point, Pittsburgh Steelers receiver Martavis Bryant is going to shove himself into this conversation if he keeps scoring touchdowns—he has six through the first four games of his career. He probably has too much to overcome given he wasn't active until Week 7, unfortunately.

Let's break up the wide receiver stranglehold for a moment, however.

Offensive guard Zack Martin has been a gem for the Dallas Cowboys, and he deserves consideration for the award. He doesn't compile stats like quarterbacks or skill position players, but Martin has been a big factor in his offense's success.

Consider the fact Martin is the fourth-best-rated guard by Pro Football Focus. He has done a solid job both in the run and pass games, and his addition to a good offensive line has made it great.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

In The Running

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Anthony Barr	OLB	Vikings	1
2	C.J. Mosley	ILB	Ravens	2
3	Aaron Donald	DT	Rams	3
4	Khalil Mack	OLB	Raiders	4
5	Jason Verrett	CB	Chargers	5

 

Winner: C.J. Mosley, LB, Baltimore Ravens

We heard this was a deep rookie class. That much is evident on the defensive side alone, given how some of these guys have been performing.

While the wide receivers have been making a lot of noise on the offensive side, a host of first-year defenders have somewhat quietly made a huge impact.

Early on, it seemed like inside linebacker C.J. Mosley would run away with the award for the Baltimore Ravens, and he may well win it if he keeps up his current pace—he has 90 tackles on the season, good for fourth in the league.

That won't happen if Anthony Barr gets his say, however.

The Minnesota Vikings outside linebacker kicked down the door to the polling center in Week 8 when he ripped the ball from Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins and ran it back for a game-winning touchdown in overtime. 

The outstanding play vaulted Barr to the head of the class. Whether he can stay there remains to be seen over the next few weeks.

Defensive tackle Aaron Donald has been nothing short of dominant at times for the St. Louis Rams this season. Pro Football Focus has him rated among the best defensive tackles in the entire league, and he has been downright disruptive when on the field.

That is the rub, however—Donald has seen the field on a limited basis compared with other rookies, which could hurt his campaign.

About the only bright spot in Oakland has been the play of Khalil Mack. Of all the offseason moves general manager Reggie McKenzie made, drafting Mack seems to be the only one that has panned out, at least immediately.

He has more than just panned out, though—Mack is the second-highest-rated 3-4 outside linebacker in the entire league, according to PFF. He has been particularly good against the run. Unfortunately for him, playing for the winless Raiders makes it difficult to stand out when it comes to winning awards. Of course, his fellow rookie defenders have been pretty good too. 

NFL Rookie of the Year

Associated Press

In The Running

NFL Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Panthers	N/A
2	Sammy Watkins	WR	Bills	N/A
3	Anthony Barr	OLB	Vikings	N/A
4	C.J. Mosley	ILB	Ravens	N/A
5	Aaron Donald	DT	Rams	N/A

 

Winner: Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

Who to choose from a gaggle of fantastic rookies season? 

Like with the NFL MVP award, offense trumps defense. The Pepsi Rookie of the Year award has featured exactly one defensive player—Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh in 2010—though the award has only been in existence since 2002.

If the MVP award is any indication, however, it's going to be difficult for one of the outstanding defensive rookies to overtake the sheer numbers this rookie receiver class is putting up.

With that in mind, the Offensive Rookie of the Year is a good bet to win the overall award, and the prediction there was Sammy Watkins.

Comeback Player of the Year

Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

In The Running

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	N/A
2	Rob Gronkowski	TE	Patriots	N/A
3	Geno Atkins	DT	Bengals	N/A
4	Henry Melton	DT	Cowboys	N/A
5	Julio Jones	WR	Falcons	N/A

 

Winner: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

There were some big names on the watchlist for Comeback Player of the Year before the season began. 

Some of those names haven't panned out—Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III has dealt with more injury, and his counterpart in Baltimore, Joe Flacco, hasn't had a Philip Rivers-like turnaround. Others, however, are in the thick of the race.

Among the latter, New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski stands out. The monstrous pass-catcher got off to a slow start, as he was still trying to make it all the way back from a devastating knee injury from a year ago. He has caught fire as of late.

Right now, however, Philadelphia Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin takes the cake. He eats it too.

Maclin was lost for the entire 2013 season before it began, tearing his ACL during practice in July. It was a huge blow for the talented receiver, who was entering a contract year. Instead of signing a multiyear deal well below market value this season, however, Maclin bet on himself by signing a one-year tender to stay with the Eagles. Boy, has that paid off.

Maclin has made Eagles fans forget about DeSean Jackson—last season's leading receiver—catching 48 passes for 828 yards and eight touchdowns. It has been a marvelous comeback for a guy who seemed destined to be pushed out by rookie Jordan Matthews at some point.

If you ask him, though, the one-year deal was merely a better choice, per Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Bob Ford:

"

"I'm not going to call it gambling on myself. I just think it was the best situation for myself and my family," Maclin said. "As far as the contract, when the time is right that stuff will take care of itself. The most important thing is playing football and helping the team win games."

The other Eagles players selected Maclin as the team's 2014 winner of the Ed Block Courage Award. That was certainly a recognition of Maclin's comeback not only from the ACL surgery that kept him out all last season, but his ability to persevere through a similar injury in college and a cancer scare in 2011. On the business side of the ledger, however, the honor from his teammates had something to do with that contract courage, too.

"

Gronkowski's dominance cannot be denied, however. He got hot as he got healthier, and New England's offense has been on fire the more he has played.

Despite that slow start, the monstrous Patriots tight end leads the league in receiving at his position and is quickly gaining on Denver's Julius Thomas and San Diego's Antonio Gates in touchdown receptions.

Fantasy Player of the Year

USA TODAY Sports

In The Running

Fantasy Football Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week	Fantasy Points
1	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	N/A	193.4
2	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	N/A	149.3
3	Julius Thomas	TE	Broncos	N/A	114.3
4	Antonio Brown	WR	Steelers	N/A	156.3
5	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	N/A	282.2

 

Winner: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Can you imagine the NFL handing out an award for fantasy football with Vince Lombardi present? My, how the NFL has evolved.

Where would television ratings for prime-time blowouts be without fantasy football? 

This season has seen plenty of top-tier fantasy talent falter. Guys like Philadelphia running back LeSean McCoy and Detroit receiver Calvin Johnson have been huge disappointments relative to their average draft position.

There have been plenty of great performances, however, headlined by Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray. The talented back has managed to stay healthy. That's helped him become this season's most consistent performer, buoying fantasy lineups everywhere, thanks to his record-breaking streak of eight 100-yard games to start the season. 

For the most part, Broncos tight end Julius Thomas has been huge for his fantasy owners, thanks to his league-leading 12 touchdowns.

Matt Forte has been great, but he has been far more valuable in points-per-reception leagues. At one point not too long ago, he led the entire league in receptions.

Then there is Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, the league-leading fantasy scorer. The best part about Luck in fantasy football is that he was the fifth quarterback off the board on average, according to FootballGuys.com.

The funny thing about the top five here is that there was a realistic chance to draft them all in many leagues, depending on draft slot. Whichever lucky fantasy owners managed to land the draft spot and these five have probably booked a trip to the fantasy playoffs.

 

All fantasy statistics courtesy of FFToday.com. Unless otherwise stated, all other statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Follow @AlexMiglio