Teams Who Could Play Spoiler in College Football Playoff Race
The end-of-season spoiler is one of the finest tropes in college football, a phenomenon that never gets stale or overplayed.
Last year, for example, we watched unranked USC exact revenge on then-No. 5 Stanford and unranked Arizona upset then-No. 5 Oregon. Without those losses, both teams would have had a case to make the BCS National Championship Game (and almost definitely would have made a hypothetical four-team playoff).
But which teams are in line to play spoiler in 2014?
To answer that, we first have to define what "spoiler" means.
For the sake of this list, a spoiler is any unranked team with a game left on its schedule against a College Football Playoff contender. "Unranked" refers to teams outside the Week 12 Associated Press Top 25*, and "College Football Playoff contender" refers to the 11 teams deemed thusly by Sam Chi of Bleacher Report.
Using those parameters, we narrowed down the teams most capable of springing an upset based on personnel, coaching, context, timing, location—you know, the things that decide a football game.
Let us know about any other teams you would add.
*We will update as necessary when the CFP standings are released.
Florida
1 of 6
Spoiler To: Florida State
Florida has already played the role of spoiler once this season, shattering Georgia's playoff hopes with a 41-20 upset in Week 10.
Florida State is better than Georgia, and this game will be played in Tallahassee rather than on a neutral field, but it's still plausible that the Gators can come in and wreck another rival's season.
The Seminoles' offense has been up-and-down all year, most recently drawing the ire of Bleacher Report's Bob Ferrante, who asked, "At some point, will [inconsistency] catch up with FSU?"
Florida's defense is good enough to force a comeuppance, matching up especially well with FSU on the outside. As good as Ermon Lane and Travis Rudolph have looked as true freshmen, Jameis Winston has still relied on Rashad Greene as a heavy No. 1 receiving target.
But there may not be a better cornerback in the country to match up with Greene than Florida's Vernon Hargreaves III. And Will Muschamp has his team—if nothing else—playing really, exceptionally hard.
Iowa
2 of 6
Spoiler To: Nebraska
Weird things always seem to happen in this series, including last year's game, which Iowa won 38-17 in Lincoln. It was the first time the Hawkeyes had beaten Big Red since upsetting the seventh-ranked Huskers in the 1981 season opener.
This year's Iowa team has been Jekyll-and-Hyde, chasing blowout wins like Week 10's over Northwestern with blowout losses such as Week 11's against Minnesota. But you don't need consistency to play the role of spoiler; you only need a high upper limit.
Iowa, for some reason, has that.
And the Huskers, despite having played well since barely beating McNeese State, are still a team that…um, barely beat McNeese State.
If they get past Wisconsin this weekend, they'd better not assume it's smooth sailing until the Big Ten Championship Game.
Miami
3 of 6
Spoiler To: Florida State
Florida might not even get a chance to spoil Florida State's playoff hopes after the Seminoles travel to Miami this weekend.
The Hurricanes have quietly been playing awesome football the past month and are currently ranked No. 12 on the Football Outsiders F/+ ratings. Florida State is a negligible distance ahead at No. 9.
Last year Miami hung with Florida State in the first half before getting blown away down the stretch. But the 'Noles have taken marked steps backward in 2014, and the Hurricanes—despite entering this game 6-3 instead of 7-0—have taken moderate leaps forward.
True freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya looks like a keeper, and running back Duke Johnson and linebacker Denzel Perryman are as talented as any skill players/defenders Florida State can trot out.
Miami is only a 2.5-point underdog, per Odds Shark.
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Minnesota
4 of 6
Spoiler To: Ohio State
Minnesota is one puzzling loss to Illinois away from being 8-1 with a legitimate outside shot of making the playoff. Its only other loss came at the beginning of the season at TCU.
The Gophers did not look good in their one game against Ohio State-level competition, losing to the Horned Frogs 30-7, but they did look good in their most recent performance, steamrolling Iowa 51-14.
What's more, the Gophers get Ohio State in a heck of a letdown spot: one week after its biggest win of the season, 49-37 at Michigan State. One could argue it was the biggest win of the Urban Meyer era in Columbus. In fact…it almost definitely was.
That is often when the biggest upsets are sprung.
Oregon State
5 of 6
Spoiler To: Oregon
Even more than Iowa-Nebraska, the Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State is a recipe for annual chaos.
The Beavers haven't beaten the Ducks since 2007, but they've come close in each of the past two years. In 2013, they led in Eugene with less than a minute to play before a Josh Huff touchdown catch gave Oregon a 36-35 victory. In 2012, they led 20-17 midway through the third quarter.
Oregon State has not played great this season, but it always seems to get up for its rival. Plus, we don't know what kind of shape Oregon's offensive line will be in after All-American center Hronnis Grasu left the Utah game with a serious-looking knee injury.
Reser Stadium is not unacquainted with monumental upsets, having famously played host to Oregon State's 27-21 win over then-No. 1 USC in 2008 and its 33-31 win over then-No. 3 USC in 2006.
If Oregon is indeed the Pac-12's new USC—the dominant program competing year-in and -out for a national championship—it should be wary of its trip to Corvallis.
Texas
6 of 6
Spoiler To: TCU
Texas beat its first ranked opponent (and earned its first back-to-back wins) of the Charlie Strong era with a 33-16 romp over West Virginia in Week 11. It was the best this team has looked in quite some time.
"It's a really good win for our program," Strong told reporters after the game. "We just, week by week we continue to get better."
A team that gets better each week is by definition strongest at the end of the season—precisely when TCU has to play the Longhorns in Austin. Worse yet, it has to make that trip on Thanksgiving Thursday (when weird things tend to happen) and with Texas coming off a bye.
The Longhorns held Baylor to 389 yards of total offense and 28 points earlier this season. They will not be intimidated by TCU's spread offense. They know they have the size and speed to stop it.
And their bowl eligibility might be hanging in the balance.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
