5 Predictions for Second Half of Minnesota Vikings 2014 Season
With a bye now under their belt, the Minnesota Vikings have seven games to finish the season on a high note, still in playoff contention if the train of wins keeps rolling.
The next two and four of the final seven game are divisional showdowns, so the Vikings will have ways to gain ground on the rest of the division and state their case as a playoff contender. The 29-34-1 combined record of the teams that remain on the schedule should give Minnesota a fighting chance.
What else will happen as the season unfolds? Will the early success of the team’s young players persist? Will the potential return of a few key players spark the Vikings to bigger things?
These predictions are ordered by confidence, with the most likely showing up last.
Anthony Barr Wins Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Without a doubt, linebacker Anthony Barr has been one of the most impressive rookies on an NFL field in 2014.
His fast start was mostly made via impressive tackles in space and impactful blitzes, not all of them ending in sacks. The lack of splash plays early on may have disadvantaged him in the rookie race, which will feature the likes of Oakland linebacker Khalil Mack, Chicago cornerback Kyle Fuller, St. Louis defensive tackle Aaron Donald and Baltimore linebacker C.J. Mosley.
Then Barr made a play in Tampa Bay voters can point to in their backing of him, stripping the ball before scooping and scoring in walk-off fashion.
His current stat total stands at 58 tackles, four sacks, one forced fumble, three fumble recoveries and three pass deflections. Mack, though impactful, falls short of Barr's standing in each statistical category. Mosley only holds an edge in tackles with 85 but can point to a pair of interceptions as well. Creating turnovers and adding sacks is necessary for Barr to stand out above Fuller and Donald.
The Vikings will continue to let Barr chase down anything and everything in run defense and continue to let him terrorize quarterbacks as a rusher, especially in the A gaps. If his current play holds up for the rest of the season, he should be the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Defense Finishes Top 5 in Sacks
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Per teamrankings.com, the Vikings currently stand at No. 2 in the league with 3.3 sacks per game. At 9.46, their sack percentage is even higher with the No. 1 standing.
In terms of offensive sacks per game, the rest of Minnesota's schedule averages a No. 22 standing, counting the Bears twice. The only team higher than No. 20 is Miami. The Dolphins are still only near league average. To make matters worse for them, star left tackle Branden Albert went down with what is believed to be a season-ending injury on Sunday, according to Kevin Patra of NFL.com.
That means low-hanging fruit for an already tall-standing Vikings unit. The defensive line has carried the pass-rush load too, which means the defense's early production should be sustainable against the leaky offensive lines that remain on the schedule.
The Vikings will continue to lean on the potent rush while supplementing the defensive line with talented blitzers. Mike Zimmer has shown a knack for crafting blitzes and twists to create guaranteed pressure, only strengthening an already-effective group.
The emergence of Everson Griffen and Sharrif Floyd has turned the Vikings defensive line into one of the league's best pass-rushing units. Expect that to continue.
Tight End Production Remains High
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Over the last two games, tight end Chase Ford has caught 11 balls for 127 yards and a touchdown. Rhett Ellison added four catches for 30 yards against the Redskins.
The growth of Teddy Bridgewater into the Vikings' passing game has increased the output from the tight end position, raising Ford into a bona fide target for the rookie quarterback. Ford's production should sustain itself too. In each of the last two weeks, he has been the No. 2 receiver in terms of targets.
Bridgewater is a quarterback who attacks defenses over the middle of the field, which brings tight ends into the game heavily. He also works progressions very well for a rookie, often finding Ford or Ellison in hook routes sitting in holes in zone coverage.
Production from tight ends should only increase with the return of Kyle Rudolph as well, which could happen on Sunday in Chicago according to ProFootballTalk. That would give Bridgewater two towers at tight end in Ford and Rudolph, both being the best bet for targets in the red zone and in the middle of the field.
The return of Rudolph and the continuous growth of Bridgewater will keep this unit supplied with a heavy share of targets and receptions. Touchdowns are the next prerogative.
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Teddy's Touchdown-to-Interception Ratio Skyrockets
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With Bridgewater at the helm for five starts, the Vikings are 3-2. The problem has been the untimely interceptions and inability to finish drives with touchdowns, especially through the air.
The trends point in the right direction for the rookie signal-caller though.
In his second and third starts, Bridgewater threw a combined five interceptions to only a single touchdown pass. That left him in a statistical crater. Since then, he has not turned the ball over in either of his last two starts and has a touchdown pass in each. In fact, his touchdown to interception ratio has improved every week since the Detroit game, the one he'd like to burn the tape of.
Bridgewater has become increasingly sharp over recent weeks, making better decisions and getting the ball out of his hands quicker. That will keep the interceptions down moving forward.
The passing touchdowns will come up too. Rudolph's return will help, but Bridgewater has the coverage recognition skills to be effective in the red zone, so his touchdowns were coming up regardless.
Right now, the rookie's ratio hovers below 1:1 with three touchdown passes to five interceptions. By season's end, expect his touchdown numbers to at least double the number of interceptions, which should stay in the single digits.
Vikings Get First Win in Chicago Since 2007
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No matter the state of the Chicago Bears, a road win in the Windy City would be a feather in Mike Zimmer's cap. The Vikings haven't scrapped out a win in Chicago since 2007, the day Adrian Peterson burst onto the scene as a rookie with 224 yards on the ground.
The Bears are ripe for the picking this time around. Vikings players were able to kick back and relax on a bye while Chicago was walloped in Green Bay on Sunday by a score of 55-14, further highlighting the faults in a fractured Bears team.
Chicago is a just bad team right now with a putrid defense. Bleacher Report's Zach Kruse provides the telling stats:
"#Bears outscored 106-37 over the last TWO games. One hundred and six points allowed. 1-0-6. 100 plus six more. Equivalent of over 15 TDs.
— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) November 10, 2014"
Furthermore, the curse of playing outdoors seems to have been lifted for Minnesota. Entering the 2014 season, the Vikings had a 10-game streak of failing to win in outdoor stadiums dating back to a win against the Redskins in 2011. In Chicago, the Vikings always look like baby deer on a patch of ice, having no idea how to play on the mush that is Soldier Field.
Maybe those outdoor demons were exorcised in Minnesota's Week 8 win in Tampa Bay this season. Either way, Minnesota has no excuse for losing to this comedic rendition of the Bears.
Statistics via ESPN.com unless noted otherwise.
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