Finding the Perfect Rotation for the Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger has exercised patience with his team's rotation as he searches for offensive rhythm.
Health permitting, he's played the same starting lineup of Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Tony Allen, Courtney Lee and Mike Conley.
Joerger has played at least five men off the bench in each game throughout its struggles.
The second-year head coach, who varied rotations last season, has expressed confidence that this year's bench players will settle in.
"We've been putting them out there and believe that they're going to get the job done. We've been really positive with some of those guys," he told The Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery (subscription required).
As reserves sort themselves out, one can surmise the shape of the rotation.
The following is a breakdown of the best possible Grizzlies rotation while taking into consideration players' roles and the potential for currently inactive players like Nick Calathes.
Ideal Starting Lineup
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Center: Marc Gasol
Power forward: Zach Randolph
Small forward: Tony Allen
Shooting Guard: Courtney Lee
Point Guard: Mike Conley
This lineup features the team's four most productive offensive players and four leading defenders.
Gasol, Lee and Randolph are shooting better than 50 percent. The 33-year-old Randolph will see his field-goal percentage slip, but his scoring average of 17.4 points per game—which matches last year's—won't.
He and Conley, who should do better than his 14.9 PPG on 38.7 percent shooting, will propel the scoring.
Gasol has been strong on both ends, averaging 19.1 PPG on 50.5 percent from the field and allowing 93 points per 100 possessions.
Whether he can stay aggressive as a shooter is open to question since his 13.6 field-goal attempts per game amount to 1.5 more than his previous career high set in 2013-14.
Allen isn't on the same level as a scorer, as he's averaging 10 points per 36 minutes this season and 13.8 for his career.
However, his superior defensive ability to any other wing gives him a place in the lineup. The two-time All-Defensive Team honoree is allowing 90 points per 100 possessions and currently sports the second-highest steals rate in the league.
His 3.3 percent career steals rate serves as a reminder that he'll continue attacking ball-handlers.
Reserve No. 1: Vince Carter
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Vince Carter hasn't started well, but the Grizzlies will depend on him to lead bench scoring.
Carter is averaging 6.2 points in 14.3 minutes per game while shooting 35.9 percent from the field and 30 percent from three-point range.
The Commercial Appeal's Chris Herrington pointed out (subscription required) that Carter looked gimpy in the first few games of the season.
The 37-year-old should return to being the player who shot 39.4 percent from downtown and averaged 11.9 points per game last year for the Dallas Mavericks.
His high-volume three-point shooting will be central to an improved standing for the team in that area. The Grizzles are currently at 36.1 percent, placing them in the top half in the league. If Carter gets back to normal and takes four or five shots from long range per game, Memphis could maintain that position.
Beno Udrih/Nick Calathes (after Nov. 21)
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Beno Udrih is earning his share of playing time. He has been the bright spot on an underperforming bench, scoring 5.9 points in 17.1 minutes per game on 45 percent shooting from the field.
However, the Grizzlies can't count on him continuing as a key bench scorer. The 32-year-old scored fewer than 12 points per 36 minutes in two of three seasons before 2014-15.
Udrih shouldn't be receiving the minutes due to the first or second man off the bench. He isn't a ball-heavy creator or helpful defender. His usage rate is 19.2 percent, 0.3 higher than his career mark. His 100 points allowed per 100 possessions is nice, but it's near the bottom among the Grizzlies' rotation players.
When Calathes' suspension ends after Nov. 21, he'll take Udrih's spot in the rotation as the No. 2 point guard. Because of the growth Calathes showed as a rookie, he's more deserving of 15 minutes per game.
He's become more effective creating for himself and others. He had a 26.5 percent turnover rate in the first three months and a 20.8 percent clip the rest of the season.
During an interview in October with The Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery in October, Calathes said (subscription required), "I think I did some things turnover-wise that was from me being a rookie. Now, I know what kind of passes I can make."
In last year's final 37 games, he also had a 28.2 percent assist rate while scoring 6.6 points in 20.1 minutes per game on 47.9 percent shooting.
Reserve No. 2: Kosta Koufos
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Koufos doesn't need as much action as Carter or Quincy Pondexter since he doesn't score as much as them.
His value for 14 minutes per game lies in his rebounding and defense.
Koufos has picked up his rebounding recently, with five boards against the Phoenix Suns on Nov. 5 and seven against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Nov. 7.
He's now at 11.2 rebounds per 36 minutes, which is on par with last year's clip. He also holds a 17.7 percent total rebounding rate, 0.7 percent off last season.
Koufos is allowing 97 points per 100 possessions. With a defensive rating of 103 for his career, Koufos' rim protection gives the Grizzlies the surest thing on that end of anyone on the second unit.
When the Grizzlies insert Koufos, they'd be wise not to pair him with Zach Randolph. As the Memphis Flyer's Kevin Lipe wrote, "When Kosta Koufos is in the paint taking up all of that space near the rim, it pushes Randolph up to the elbow or out to the short corners instead of giving him room to work under the basket."
This was seen in Randolph's drop in rebounding with Gasol out last season. He had a 10.4 percent offensive rebounding rate and a 18.3 percent total rebounding rate, 3.4 and 1 percent lower than his season marks, respectively.
Quincy Pondexter
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Quincy Pondexter's rough start is cause for anxiety.
He is scoring 3.9 points in 18 minutes per game while shooting 23.3 percent from the field and 21.1 percent from beyond the arc. He hasn't made more than one-third of his shots in a game with more than two attempts.
He's two years removed from scoring 6.2 points per game while knocking down 39.5 percent of his shots from three-point range. Last year's 32.4 percent long-range mark could be excused.
To his credit, he has played within himself, posting at 13.2 percent usage rate and 5.4 percent turnover rate.
Then again, that's another reason to drop him from the rotation. By shooting poorly and rarely touching the ball, Pondexter allows defenders to ignore him and focus on veritable bench scorers like Carter.
While his 102 points allowed per 100 possessions is respectable, he's last among the Grizzlies' regulars in the category.
If he were playing up to his three-and-D projection, Pondexter would deserve to be the second player off the bench. However, continued ineffectiveness should lead to a drop in the rotation.
Reserve No. 5: Jon Leuer
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Jon Leuer is an ideal player to have at the end of the Grizzlies' rotation. He's a stretch 4 who will help add outside shooting and some rebounding.
The Commercial Appeal's Chris Herrington compared (subscription required) him to the San Antonio Spurs' Matt Bonner, noting that beyond their similar three-point abilities, Leuer is "quicker and more athletic off the dribble. He's got more of a post game. ... But stretching the defense with his jumper needs to be both his primary attribute as a player and his most important contribution to the Grizzlies."
Leuer has started poorly, shooting 23.1 percent and missing his only three-point attempt. As the season progresses, he'll get closer to the 46.9 percent downtown and 49.2 percent overall clips he shot last year.
He's playing 11.6 minutes per game, which is promising, since he averaged 13.1 per game last year while playing double-digit minutes in just 23 of his 49 games in 2013-14.
Joerger has played the 25-year-old every game despite his struggles.
While Leuer has yet to find his shot, he's been effective on the boards and defense. He's pulling down 8.2 rebounds per 36 minutes. He pulled down six rebounds in two of the last three games. He's allowing 98 points per 100 possessions.
Statistics are current through Nov. 9 games. Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics come from Basketball-Reference.com.
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