Will Rafael Nadal Ever Win the ATP World Tour Finals?
While the ATP World Tour Finals showcases eight elite tennis players amidst pomp and all-stars matches, superstar Rafael Nadal is conspicuously absent. Fans are aware that he withdrew to undergo appendix surgery, but it has always been an excruciating task for him to win this tournament.
Nadal has never won the WTF and he is not likely to win it in the future.
This is not a knock on the 28-year-old Nadal, a superstar who has arguably overachieved in being mentioned as one of the greatest players in tennis history. No player at any time, not on any surface, has dominated tennis the way that Nadal has on clay, forging a decade of dominance with nine French Open trophies.
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Nadal has won just about everywhere else that is important, twice taking Wimbledon and U.S. Open titles, and once claiming the Australian Open title. He was the No. 1 player in the world 141 career weeks, winning on all surfaces, although falling short on the fast indoors surface for London’s year-end battle of the best.
The real question should be why it matters whether Nadal wins the WTF, even as we examine why he will not likely win it in the twilight of his career.
Reality Check
Fans have occasionally referred to Nadal’s “failure” to win the WTF. It’s the glaring hole in his resume, or the most obvious area to attack a human tennis machine who somehow is expected to win everything everywhere.
No, Nadal is not the only player to be scrutinized. It’s part of being an athlete and especially magnified in being a superstar. All of the greatest legends have their disappointments:
- Bjorn Borg never bagged the U.S. Open.
- Ivan Lendl whiffed at Wimbledon.
- Pete Sampras fell at the French Open every time.
- Roger Federer took several big-match beatings by Nadal.
- Nadal failed to win the WTF.
Why should we expect that these players should have won at the venues that gave them the most fits? Even Hercules needed to enlist Atlas to obtain the Apples of Hesperides.
The reality is that all of these players did have tremendous success at their most difficult quests. But it was usually the case that someone else, better and more suited for that particular tournament was able to win the day.
For the tennis fans and media who greatly care about superstars and their legacies, it’s a natural motion to find what is missing. Yet, the act of finding fault in a superstar’s resume is also an implication of just how great that player is.
Leaving all this to Nadal, if we must be reminded that Nadal could not win the WTF, it is conversely strong evidence that the rest of his legacy is incredibly awesome.
Window Almost Closed
It’s clear by now that Nadal’s best chances to win the WTF have come and gone. If we look back at this event since 2005 (played at Shanghai 2005-08; London 2009-present), we can see Nadal’s results:
- Injured and did not participate in 2005, 2008, 2012, 2014.
- Round Robin losses and unable to advance to semifinals in 2009, 2011.
- Semifinals in 2006-07 (lost to Federer)
- Finals in 2010 and 2013. Lost to Federer and Djokovic respectively.
The first thing that jumps out in this 10-year sample is that Nadal is 40 percent likely not to participate due to injury. So if Nadal’s career continues for five more years and if he can keep qualifying for the WTF event, past history shows we can throw out two future years, if not more. Nadal’s injuries are increasing, as evidenced in missing two of the last three years at London.
When he did participate, he has qualified for the semifinals two thirds of the time and the finals one third of the time.
If we calculate that he is only 40 percent likely to qualify and be healthy enough to play, one third likely to reach the final and 50 percent chance to win that final (which is generous), then his odds of winning in any future year is 10 percent at best.
Nadal’s greatest years, those in which he won multiple Grand Slam titles (2008, 2010, 2013) figured to be his best opportunities. He was the top player in the world, but he ran into injuries in the former and two superstar rivals in Federer and Djokovic in the latter years, and both are superior players on this fast surface indoors.
There was never a time, including 2010, when we could say that Nadal “should have won” this tournament. Likewise, the possibility of winning this event in the next five years is mathematically descending to zero.
Asking Aquaman to Sprint on Land
It’s not that great clay-court players cannot win the WTF event on carpet or fast indoors courts, but it would seem that it is more difficult for players who prefer to grind on hot, outdoor clay in springtime.
A look back shows that French Open champions like Ilie Nastase, Guillermo Vilas, Bjorn Borg, Ivan Lendl, Andre Agassi and Gustavo Kuerten won this title on fast surfaces. Even clay-court players like Manuel Orantes and Alex Corretja won the WTF (at least how it was formerly exhibited).
But timing and winning this event is more difficult for a baseline player who does not possess a big serve, or powerful quick-strike attacks. It’s like taking a marathon runner and asking him to win a sprint.
Maybe deciding the best player in tennis is sort of like figuring out a triathlon, adding up the accumulative results to swimming, biking and running. But to hold the WTF completely away from the pool is clearly more difficult for Nadal than for other great players who are more suited for indoors competition.
And that’s the way it is for Nadal at London, just as it is for Federer at Roland Garros (or for that matter anyone else at Roland Garros). He might not like the WTF ignoring his complaints about not rotating the surface on this event, but he would be the first to cry foul if Roland Garros decided to install carpet in 2015.
It all adds up to very tough odds for Nadal, even when he is at his absolute physical peak and in great form. By autumn, his game fades through with fatigue while other fast-courts players are more rejuvenated to grab hardware in spite of Nadal.
In addition, the WTF’s round-robin format allows others to grow more comfortable in preparing for Nadal. Some of his mystique in winning big matches is his mastery of focus in winning a huge elimination match in the draw. At the WTF, he is visible in a more festive atmosphere. Indoors, he is less able to strike the same kind of fear into his opponents.
Furthermore, Nadal himself is less likely to care as much about winning the WTF as adding a 10th French Open trophy, or a second Australian Open title. The titles that will most torment him long after his career (at least in judging this through 2014) would be Australia 2014, Wimbledon 2007 or perhaps Roland Garros 2009.
Nadal would like to win the WTF, but it’s not his most urgent quest, not 10 years ago, not now and not in the future. It's a stark contrast to his maniacal preparation and intensity at Roland Garros; there, he is simply at another level. First, because he is more equipped to dominate there, and second, because the thought of losing there and giving up his crown would be catastrophic, like having someone break into his home and cart away his trophies. Winning the WTF would merely be adding another ornament to his robust collection. Nice, but not essential.
Being the all-time King of Clay is his absolute biggest legacy, not to fill out his resume with a priority much lower on his list.
Nadal’s diminishing physical peak makes it more likely he will put everything into winning the tournaments he can most likely succeed at, namely places like Melbourne, Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome and Roland Garros. Competing to win for other titles will require his health and energy to be optimum. By the time mid-fall rolls around in London, Nadal is not likely to be the best player in the world.
We can never write off Nadal, and he could contend a couple more times at the WTF, but the best of his career is already in the rearview mirror.
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