How Terrence Jones Can Turn Hot Start into a Breakout Season for Houston Rockets
Terrence Jones has been hot, and under the radar, for Houston Rockets' early season. That’s largely due to an improved skill set combined with smart shot selection. If he continues playing with the same wisdom, he can turn a great start into a breakout season.
The 6’9”, 252-pound power forward is averaging career highs across the board: 14.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.8 blocks and 29.3 minutes.
While it’s early (insert your favorite small-sample-size disclaimer here), that doesn’t mean that Jones’ start is due for a regression to the mean. Even accounting for the fact that he’s missed three games due to a peroneal nerve contusion, there’s enough basketball to suggest he is legitimately improved.
In part, that’s because it’s to be expected. Being just 23 years old, he’s at the stage where career slopes are still on the incline.
Beyond that, though, part of the trick of early-season analysis is identifying the difference between anomalous numbers and early trends. And the best way to do that is see if there’s an underlying reason to explain the surprising numbers. If a player has developed a new skill, then there’s a good chance those changes are real.
In Jones’ case, there are two things to suggest his success will continue, and they’re seemingly opposites: He doesn’t need to have plays made for him, but he’s also become a guy you can create plays for.
Plays Not Designed for Him
Jones is an offensive-rebounding vulture. Per NBA.com/STATS, the Rockets grab 36.0 percent of their offensive rebounds when he’s on the court, which is more than with any other player. He accounts for 14.6 percent by himself, which also is best on the club.
Getting offensive rebounds is important, but making the right decision with the ball afterward can be just as essential. At 82games.com, a study was conducted a few years ago, comparing what happens when a player tips out an offensive rebound versus what happens when he shoots it right away.
What they found is that when a player puts the shot back immediately, the effective field-goal percentage was 50.9, whereas when the team tipped it out, it was 47.0 percent. So, in general, you’re better off taking the shot than tapping the ball out.
There’s a logic to it, as the site explains:
"Perhaps the real advantage on the shot following an offensive rebound is that the rebounder has secured a good position near to the hoop?
As we suspected, the vast majority of quick shots after an offensive rebound are from close range, dunks or tips, and that accounts in part for the high overall field goal percentage on these putbacks. The defense is also likely to be off-balance.
"
That’s especially true when the player goes up for the dunk. On those occasions, the average field-goal percentage was 87.7 percent.
On the other hand, when you tap it out, it gives the defense a chance to set up. Furthermore (and what’s not reflected in the study), there’s the chance that the defense can recover it and turn it into transition points.
This is meaningful in the Jones discussion because of things like this:
Jones isn’t a tapper-outer; he’s a grab-the-ball-and-dunker. Based on data from NBAWowy.com, 24 percent of Jones’ field goals have come from offensive rebounds.
He’s one of those guys who’s going to get a certain amount of offense just by being on the court, and those are going to be fairly consistent buckets.
Plays Designed for Him
One of the nice things about the new player dashboards at NBA.com is the addition of more tracking stats. That includes intriguing data on the distance of the nearest defender when a player takes a shot. One type of skill is being able to create and make shots when a defender is on top of you, and now we have a way to quantify that skill.
Last year, within two feet of a defender, Jones was taking just 3.2 field-goal attempts and making just 1.6. This season those numbers have climbed to 4.3 and 2.3 respectively.
Also, he’s making treys at twice the rate this year, going from .4 to .8 per game. Furthermore he’s shooting 42.9 percent from deep compared to 30.7 percent.
Jones has improved both in scoring on contested shots and in shooting from deep. Those two things actually complement one another.
He’s making his threes when no one is challenging him—literally. Every one of them has come without a defender within six feet of him. When opponents do come to challenge him, he attacks the closer.
Since he has great ball-handling skills, speed and footwork for a big, that usually results in a mismatch, and that’s how he’s getting his contested shots.
A pump fake followed by shimmy here, a shake there, throw in a juke or two and leather parts nylon.
Or for those who prefer the eye test, here’s another way of saying it. Because he does this…
…and this….
…he can do this….
…or this.
Jones has an inherent advantage, as well. He's almost always going to have a mismatch.
He has second-option talent, but on Houston he’s the co-third option, along with Trevor Ariza. Some would argue he’s the fourth option. Regardless, it means that he’s going to be getting less defensive attention than his offensive talents merit.
Defenses aren’t going to give Jones the priority when the more accomplished three-point shooters, Ariza and James Harden, are there. They’re not going to put their most athletic big on Jones with Dwight Howard playing. Therefore, invariably, Jones is going to enjoy the advantage, and that’s going to translate to continued production.
Through the early going, he’s been able to maximize that by making good decisions, knowing when to take the deep shot and knowing when to drive to the rim. Keeping inferior defenders honest is a great way to be an efficient scorer.
The danger here, though, is if Jones starts thinking he’s the next Kevin Love and becomes the next Josh Smith instead. His primary offense needs to come by attacking the rim. Utilizing a little range to keep defenses guessing is great, but he needs to not get carried away.
As long as he continues using discretion and doesn’t fall in love with his three-point shot, look for Jones to have a breakout year.
Stats for the article were obtained from NBAWowy.com and NBA.com/STATS.
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