How Far Will College Football Playoff Committee Move Ohio State Up the Rankings?

The whole "separation Saturday" thing can be overdone, but Week 11 of the college football season did provide some clarity as far as the playoff picture is concerned.

Notre Dame, Auburn and Kansas State? More than likely out, barring all sorts of chaos over the next several weeks. Ohio State? Come on down. 

The Buckeyes had one of the statement wins Saturday by beating Michigan State 49-37 in East Lansing. It wasn't the low-scoring defensive struggle the series has produced as of late, but it showed just how far Ohio State's offense has come since the Virginia Tech loss in September.

Ohio State had 568 yards of total offense, closing in on nearly double what the Spartans allow per game. Quarterback J.T. Barrett, starting the season over the injured Braxton Miller, has grown up right in front of everyone's eyes. Barrett accounted for 386 of those yards and five touchdowns. 

The offensive line is playing well as a group, and the skill players, from running back Ezekiel Elliott to receiver Devin Smith, have established their roles. The way this offense has come together over the past two months has been one of the great turnaround stories. The softer part of the Buckeyes' schedule allowed this team to quietly improve and build confidence before showing up against Michigan State.

Couple that offense with an already formidable defensive line, and Ohio State is becoming the team no one wants to play. 

Now, the question is what happens from here. Where does the playoff selection committee place Ohio State when it releases its new rankings this week? (The Associated Press and Amway coaches polls will be released Sunday afternoon, but those hardly matter.)

For what it's worth, ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit has Ohio State as one of his two "next in" if the playoff field were to be formed today. 

That would mean Ohio State, in one person's eyes, jumped up about eight or nine spots from its No. 14 spot a week ago. (Herbstreit is not part of the committee.) Though the committee has released only two sets of rankings, it has already shown a willingness to reward teams for big wins. After Week 10, Arizona State was ranked 14th. After an overtime win against Utah, the Sun Devils jumped up five spots to No. 9.

What Ohio State did to Michigan State was far more convincing. At the very least, one would think the Buckeyes would come in higher than No. 8, where Michigan State was ranked coming into the weekend. 

This is all guesswork, though, and head coach Urban Meyer doesn't want to deal with it at the moment. 

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

"Oh, I don't know enough," Meyer said via Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports. "I like my team ... if I have to go fight for this team for what they've done …"

Then he will, but the time for lobbying isn't quite here yet. Meyer and his team are going to enjoy their first win over a Top 15 opponent since he arrived in Columbus; everyone else can and will stir up the conversation about what it all means. 

For that matter, all of this means nothing if Ohio State doesn't take care of its business going forward. The Buckeyes are rewarded for their win over the Spartans by traveling to Minnesota next week. The Gophers, tied atop the Big Ten West standings, have been one of the pleasant surprises this season. 

But if Ohio State is in a position to get a playoff spot at year's end, it becomes an intriguing case study in how much stock, if any, the committee places on a team's improvement. There shouldn't be any doubt at this point that the Buckeyes are dramatically better than they were in early September.

If the committee really is concerned about putting together a field of the four "best" teams, as it's said all along, then Ohio State has to be a contender based on how it has played, right? Any team wants to be playing its best football at season's end. 

The Virginia Tech loss does weigh heavily. The Hokies have gone belly up since winning in the Horseshoe, needing two wins in their final three games just to be bowl eligible. However, Ohio State can't control what Virginia Tech does. It can only control how much it gets better, and it has done more than enough to show that it has. 

That has to count for something. How much will be revealed later this week. This much is true, though: Ohio State is in the conversation. Heading into Week 12, that's a good place to be.

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.