Can Anyone Stop Novak Djokovic Winning World Tour Finals Except Roger Federer?

Heading into the ATP Tour’s end-of-season spectacle of breath-taking ball-striking and intense drama and emotion, Novak Djokovic is a firm favourite to triumph at the O2 Arena for the third consecutive year.

Djokovic has had a terrific last few months. Most significantly, he got married to long-time partner Jelena and then became a father to their son Stefan. But he’s also won tournaments at Wimbledon, Beijing and Paris too.

He didn’t even drop a set in the latter two events and is currently on an indoor winning streak of 27 matches going into London.

Current world No. 2 Roger Federer hasn’t performed too badly himself either recently, though. He’s won events in Cincinnati, Shanghai and Basel to put some pressure on Djokovic at the top of the rankings.

The Swiss great still has a slight chance of usurping his Serbian rival come the end of the 2014 season. Djokovic sits on 10,010 points, while Federer has 8,700, with a maximum 1,500 up for grabs in London. Federer also has points on offer in the Davis Cup final, too, though.

Looking at their head-to-head record this season, it is certainly Roger who seems to have the best chance out of the other seven players to have qualified for the World Tour Finals to oust Djokovic.

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The two have met on five occasions in 2014, with Federer leading the way 3-2. Recently, in the semis in Shanghai, the 17-time major champion produced an extraordinary performance to defeat his Wimbledon nemesis 6-4 6-4. It was a wonderfully aggressive, free-flowing, net-approaching masterclass.

He came to the net a massive 48 times in the match, according to Craig O’Shannessy’s Brain Game analysis, winning 11/15 serve-and-volley points behind the first serve, which was at 70 percent in the match. He only faced one break point in the match—which was saved—against the returning monster that is Djokovic and created 10 of his own.

Djokovic just had no answers. He admitted after that his opponent had played “the perfect match.” You sense, however, that Roger is going to have to play that well again to beat Novak in London. But can any of the other six men challenge the champion of the past two years?

Joining the Serb in Group A are two more of 2014’s Grand Slam champions in Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic, as well as Tomas Berdych. It’s fair to say that Djokovic will be fairly satisfied with this group, given the ridiculously one-sided head-to-heads he possesses with all three.

He leads Australian Open winner Wawrinka 14-3, Czech Berdych 16-2 and US Open champion Cilic a colossal 10-0. It would be a huge surprise if he doesn’t top this group.

Wawrinka did beat Djokovic in a stunning five-set quarterfinal back in the Australian summer in January, but that must feel like an awful long time ago for suffering Stan. Over his last four tournaments, he’s won just one match.

Berdych won’t have much confidence going into his meeting with the Serb either, after being pasted 6-0 6-2 in the Beijing final. That match was very nearly a double bagel, too.

Perhaps Marin Cilic will be the man to challenge Djokovic in this group, if he can repeat his ruthless New York performances of powerful, precise serving and groundstrokes. He defeated Berdych, Federer and Kei Nishikori all in straight sets in his last three matches to win the US Open.

He’s pushed the world No. 1 hard in all three of their previous meetings in 2014. In the Wimbledon quarterfinal, Cilic led by two sets to one, but Djokovic rebounded to win in five. The Croat also took sets off the Serb at Roland Garros and Indian Wells.

Djokovic should saunter into the last four, though, based on current form and head-to-head records, but that second spot in the group is very much up for grabs.

What about across the way in Roger Federer’s Group B? Is there anyone there apart from the great man to challenge the relentless two-time defending champion?

Well, looking back to the Masters 1000 event in Paris just last week, the answer would have to be no. 

Djokovic faced each of the other Group B players—Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic—in Paris and defeated them all comfortably. One would hope that since they’d all qualified for the World Tour Finals by then that maybe they were saving themselves a little. Still, though, Djokovic will be extremely confident that he can beat them all.

Murray has dealt his Serbian friend a fair share of defeat in the past (we’re thinking 2012 Olympic semis, 2012 US Open final and 2013 Wimbledon final), but in 2014, it’s been all about Djokovic so far in their four meetings.

Russell Fuller of BBC Sport stated after their recent match in the French capital:

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There remains clear water between Murray and Djokovic - as there has been all season - but Murray's form has improved so much over the past six weeks that he will relish the chance to take on his rival when he's not playing his 23rd match in 37 days.

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Murray may not have beaten his main rivals Djokovic and Federer this year, but there’s still at least one more chance of changing that fact before the calendars turn to 2015. He told ESPN.com:

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I've won against Roger and Novak in the past. The more time I spend on court with them this year, the better for me next year. Whether I win against one of them this week or not remains to be seen. I'll give it my best shot. I still believe I can win against them, that's half the battle.

"

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Beating either one of them this week would show how far Murray has come over the course of the season, or even just since the US Open. He did match Djokovic strike-for-strike over the first two sets in New York but then tailed off after that.

But now he’s got a lot of tough matches and three more titles to draw upon at the crucial moments that will inevitably come in these contests in London.

The other two to complete Group B are both young stars competing at the World Tour Finals for the first time.

Nishikori had that storming run to the US Open final, beating Djokovic along the way, before eventually succumbing to Marin Cilic. So Djokovic will certainly have that match in his mind should the two of them meet over the next week.

Nishikori has an excellent chance of making the last four, with his opening match with Murray being the key contest.

Serving goliath Raonic wraps up the group. The Canadian beat Federer last week in Paris, obviously serving ridiculously well. But where he was most impressive was off the ground. He stuck with the Swiss in baseline rallies, surely playing one of the matches of his life in that regard.

Federer will look to use his vast experience of this event and pounce on a potentially nervous Raonic early when they face each other on Sunday evening.

Djokovic is most certainly the favourite, but he will have to be on the top of his game in every single match as the other seven are too strong not to take advantage. Federer is right on his heels, with home favourite Murray not far behind him.

The ATP World Tour Finals is truly a celebration of the men’s game. The eight contenders display such a variety of styles of play, with aggression the key to some and defence being first for others.

Sit back and enjoy the end of the season, as the elite eight go toe-to-toe and whip up a cauldron of noise inside London’s O2 Arena.