The Denver Broncos Must Create Opportunities for Rookie WR Cody Latimer

Focusing on the running game on a team with quarterback Peyton Manning might not be maintaining the status quo, but it’s a bit like obsessing over the seat material of a race car. Only once in Manning’s career has his rushing offense been better than 15th in the league in yards. Unsurprisingly, it was when Manning’s Indianapolis Colts went 6-10.

With one of the best offenses in the NFL in 2014, it’s easy for the Denver Broncos to obsess over the wrong things and maintain the status quo by default. The running game has been putrid, but it isn’t why the team has lost twice on the road against other contenders.

If offensive coordinator Adam Gase really wants to improve the horsepower of his offense, he must create more opportunities for rookie wide receiver Cody Latimer. Making such a change will come at the expense of slot receiver Wes Welker’s playing time, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Welker is in decline, which is proving to be an issue because Manning trusts him to a fault. Welker was the target on three of Manning’s five interceptions this season, and the Broncos are also 1-2 in games Manning targets Welker more than three times.

Manning so trusts where Welker is going to be that he has lost track of defenders or tried to squeeze passes into tight windows. Welker isn’t a bad receiver, but he’s no longer reliable enough or important enough to the offense to spend too much time correcting the disconnect.

The offense and the team would be better off trying to get the team’s second-round pick up to speed. In the long term, the team will be better off for it. Welker's numbers no longer justify his continued use when Latimer has yet to receive a single target after such a positive training camp and preseason.

The Broncos don’t have to transition away from Welker all at once. A gradual transition to Latimer over the final eight games with the goal of him being the No. 4 option in the playoffs makes the most sense.

Welker’s White Flag

Welker has made his living in the slot, everyone knows that. As the No. 4 option in the offense, he is now also Manning’s security blanket, but Manning thrives when he needs to make someone else better.

Welker’s decline may have been predictable, but he’s been able to delay his demise by keeping his drop rate down compared to previous seasons. That and Manning's trust have been vital to his continued success, but it may be time to make a change. 

Latimer’s draft status in a deep draft for wide receivers suggests he is going to get a chance eventually, but his 6’3” frame, speed and ability to catch passes at their highest point is a better fit outside the numbers. That is a bit of a problem with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders entrenched as the top two receivers, but it shouldn't be a problem going forward.

Now that Sanders is up to speed, the Broncos can start the transition. Sanders can play a higher percentage of his snaps in the slot, and Latimer can take his snaps outside. This not only helps Sanders, but also tight end Julius Thomas.

Sanders and Julius Thomas have both been more productive when Welker is out. That makes sense given a limited amount of touches for everyone, but they are also both more productive than Welker is in the slot. Sanders is the fourth-most productive slot receiver in the league, according to the yards per route run statistics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Data via Pro Football Focus

Welker is currently 39th out of 54 qualified slot receivers and 72nd out of 82 qualified receivers in yards per route run. At a drop rate well below what it has been in recent years, his production could easily decline further if he has a little more trouble hanging onto the ball.

When Welker has been out, Sanders has run 51.6 percent of his routes out of the slot. That’s 14.9 percent more snaps in the slot when Welker is out than when he isn’t, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Sanders averaged 11 routes out of the slot without Welker compared to over 18 with him. The Broncos are simply running more pass plays with Welker than they were without him.

With Welker	Slot %	YPRR in Slot	Slot TDs	Total YPRR	Non-Slot TDs
Without Welker	Slot %	YPRR in Slot	Slot TDs	Total YPRR	Non-Slot TDs
Emmanuel Sanders	36.70%	2.41	1	2.44	3
Demaryius Thomas	14.70%	1.4	1	3.29	4
Julius Thomas	16.20%	0.59	1	1.1	5
Wes Welker	93.30%	1.02	1	1.1	0
Emmanuel Sanders	51.60%	2.12	0	2.89	0
Demaryius Thomas	37.90%	1.59	1	1.9	0
Julius Thomas	15.60%	3.29	0	3.18	4

What that means is that Sanders is not more productive in the slot just because Welker is out, but because he’s actually a good slot receiver. The fact that Sanders was also more productive overall with Welker out likely has to do more with Demaryius Thomas’ performance in those games than Welker’s absence.

Julius Thomas has been the most negatively impacted by Welker playing and would be the biggest beneficiary if the Broncos were to go with more Latimer. Thomas’ slot usage is about the same either way, but Manning has targeted him 19.2 percent less in the slot when Welker is playing. Thomas’ yards per route run with Welker is also 2.08 less than it is without him.

Demaryius Thomas wasn’t nearly as productive without Welker, but he was actually more productive without him last season. The difference seems to be due to his early-season struggles and a small sample size more than Welker actually helping Thomas in any tangible way.

Given the data, Sanders would be an upgrade over Welker in the slot, Julius Thomas should be more productive overall and Latimer would need only to average 1.1 yards per route run to replace Welker’s production. Everything is pointing to the transition to start now so the Broncos can work out the kinks before the postseason.

The Latimer Latency

Of the 12 rookie wide receivers playing at least 25 percent of the time, all of them have been more productive than Welker on a per-route basis. Playing wide receiver as a rookie is notoriously difficult, but the rookies this year are defying the odds.

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Given Welker’s struggles, there is no longer any reason not to give Latimer the experience he needs even if his transition is a little slower than his fellow rookies. A good example of a rookie receiver who Manning has helped develop and who has gone on to help him in the playoffs is Anthony Gonzalez in 2007.

In the case of Gonzalez, the Colts gave him 15 or fewer snaps in five of his first six games. It wasn’t until Week 12 that Gonzalez became a permanent fixture of Manning’s offense. Gonzalez also played outside the numbers as Latimer would in Denver.

Latimer wouldn’t get many tough assignments because defenses would continue to focus on Demaryius and Julius Thomas and Sanders. He would be in a great spot to have early success with a limited amount of snaps to start, with the hope that he continues to earn more of Manning’s trust by the end of the season.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).