Bowl Predictions 2014: Projections for College Football Playoff, Other Top Bowls

The expansion to the four-team College Football Playoff was never going to erase the controversy from the BCS era.  Indeed, with four regular-season games left for most teams, a plethora of schools still hold legitimate cases for reaching the final four.

However, the thinning-out process has already begun.  Two-loss teams like Ole Miss and Georgia are now likely out of contention, barring total chaos, and more teams will join those ranks this Saturday.  The Big 10 and the Big 12, the two power conferences most likely to get shut out, will each host a virtual elimination game between top contenders.

Let's take a look at the current snapshot of the playoff field and selection committee bowl games, highlighting the Week 11 games that could particularly impact the race for the biggest bowls.

Bowl	Matchup	Prediction
Championship Bowl*	Semifinal winners	Alabama over Oregon
Sugar Bowl*	Semifinal	Florida State vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl*	Semifinal	Mississippi State vs. Oregon
Cotton Bowl	At Large vs. At Large	Notre Dame vs. Auburn
Orange Bowl	ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame	Clemson vs. Michigan State
Fiesta Bowl	At Large vs. At Large	Ole Miss vs. TCU
Peach Bowl	At Large vs. At Large	Marshall vs. Ohio State

Oregon vs. Utah

After a resounding win over kryptonite Stanford, the Oregon Ducks have finally broken into the playoff picture, earning the fourth and final seed in the committee's post-Week 10 rankings.  However, with the Ducks on an emotional high, this Saturday's game at Salt Lake City could be a prime letdown scenario:

Indeed, perhaps due to their struggles since joining the Pac-12, the Utah Utes have been largely overlooked by the public—even with their 17th-ranked designation.  The Utes lead the nation with 39 sacks, as their defense ranks 13th in the country, according to Football Outsiders' Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) metric. 

Thus, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota will face arguably his stiffest test of the season.  Though Mariota had issues escaping pressure earlier this season, the return of left tackle Jake Fisher has stabilized the line, as the Ducks have conceded just four sacks in their last four games.

A victory would also secure Oregon's spot in the Pac-12 conference championship game, where they would appear likely to host Arizona State.  This is the Ducks' toughest game until that potential conference championship, so a win could also effectively seal an opportunity to play for a playoff berth in the final week.

TCU vs. Kansas State

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As two of the three one-loss teams remaining in the Big 12, TCU and Kansas State are playing an effective elimination game for the conference.  While it is no lock that the Big 12 even receives a playoff bid, the winner will hold the inside track to the conference championship, along with Baylor.

The game's premier matchup will lie on the perimeter, as Kansas State's Tyler Lockett faces off against TCU corner Kevin White.  Last week, White shut down his namesake, West Virginia's Kevin White, holding him to just three receptions for 28 yards.  Lockett is in a similar class in terms of explosiveness and the ability to vertically stretch the perimeter, and White realizes he will once again have his hands full:

Despite their higher ranking, the Horned Frogs could be underdogs in this game.  Not only is the game in Manhattan, but the battered Frogs are coming off a difficult and physical comeback victory in Morgantown.  Though the geographic travel is easier this week, hitting the road once again could stress a weary TCU squad.

Ultimately, the game will come down to the biggest strength on strength.  TCU's defense leads the nation in takeaways, which has led to an astounding 101 points off turnovers.  Kansas State has the seventh-fewest turnovers in the nation, so if the Wildcats offense can take care of the ball, they should make life difficult for Trevone Boykin and Co.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State 

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The rematch of last year's Big 10 Championship Game holds less luster than last January's meeting.  However, while the Big 10 looks like the weakest Power Five conference in terms of overall depth, both the Spartans and the Buckeyes look like squads capable of crashing the playoff dance.

Ohio State has been teetering since the Spartans ended their 24-game winning streak in their last meeting, but the Buckeyes still harbor hope with just a single loss to Virginia Tech back on Sep. 6.  Freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett has held his own, throwing 23 touchdowns to just seven picks, while also maintaining a robust 9.0 yards per attempt average.  Indeed, some on Michigan State's defense have suggested that Barrett has represented an upgrade from preseason Heisman hopeful Braxton Miller:

Despite Barrett's strong play, Ohio State's road to the playoff will be difficult, even with a win.  The Buckeyes are ranked ahead of just two Power Five schools in the CFP Top 25, Duke and Utah, and the Virginia Tech loss is looking worse as the Hokies flounder at 4-5.  The Spartans' lone loss came in Eugene, though they too will suffer from a lack of marquee wins due to the weakened Big 10.

In truth, the winner will likely need the SEC to cannibalize itself for a realistic playoff shot, unless a heavy favorite like Florida State or Oregon falters.  But college football has always proven unpredictable, and the winner will put itself in position to exploit the unexpected if and when it arises.