Wesley Matthews Ready to Earn Big Payday with Strong 2014-15 Season
Prior to the 2014-15 regular season, Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard Wesley Matthews made a bold declaration, one that was dripping with confidence.
"I'm never going to be the type that gets gaudy numbers to make an All-Defensive team," Matthews said, according to The Columbian's Erik Gundersen. "Do I think I'm All-Defense? Absolutely. I think I'm the best two-way 2-guard in the NBA. But I feel like we need to be a good defensive team within the scheme of the game. We're not out there gambling, trying to reach and get steals. That would put us in a bind if I don't get it."
Following a breakout 2013-14 campaign that saw Matthews average a career-high 16.4 points while shooting 39.3 percent from three, his resume could be viewed in a more favorable light, and at the perfect time.
One of five players to drill at least 200 threes last season, according to Basketball-Reference.com, Matthews' status as a vaunted three-and-D weapon was suddenly very real—especially after he limited opposing shooting guards to a player efficiency rating of 12.9, according to 82games.com.
So as Matthews' stock continues to trend in a positive direction with a substantial payday looming, it's worth pondering just how much he's worth to the Blazers and if they can afford to keep him in a contract year.
After the Blazers defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers, 101-82, Tuesday night, Matthews finds himself sporting similarly impressive numbers, ones that continue to reinforce his claim.
With a field-goal percentage of 54.5 and three-point field-goal percentage of 36.4, Matthews has scorched the nets in ways that have been consistent with last year's offensive explosion.
As Portland continues to spread the floor and clear out room for LaMarcus Aldridge to operate in the mid-post, Matthews has thrived as a catch-and-shoot maestro.
According to NBA.com's player tracking data, 47.3 percent of Matthews' field-goal attempts this season have come via catch-and-shoot threes, and he's drilled 38.5 percent of those attempts.
Aided by Terry Stotts' shooter-friendly scheme, 32.7 percent of Matthews' attempts have come with the closest defender in the range of four to six feet (defined as "open") and another 25.5 percent of his looks have been generated with the closest defender more than six feet away (defined as "very open"), according to NBA.com.
What that means is Matthews has continued to embrace his role, one that he should thrive in so long as Aldridge and Damian Lillard command the bulk of defenses' attention.
Against the Cavaliers, Matthews helped limit Cleveland's starting wings (Dion Waiters and LeBron James) to a combined 7-of-23 shooting on a night when the opposition knocked down just 36.5 percent of its shots. He also made his presence felt in the form of 21 points (8-of-14 shooting, 3-of-8 from three).
As we've become accustomed to, Matthews' shot chart took on a particularly efficient form, with his focus predictably laying in the restricted area and beyond the arc, according to NBA.com:
A quick scan of the Blazers' payroll indicates general manager Neil Olshey will have plenty of room to operate under the cap next season.
However, that's not necessarily true when you consider all of the variables at play.
According to ShamSports.com, the Blazers were staring at a maximum of $34.9 million on the books at the start of next offseason, but they've been proactive, declining Thomas Robinson's team option for next season. As a result, we can shave $4.7 million off that projected sum.
And with Will Barton, Joel Freeland and Victor Claver all due qualifying offers, the Blazers can easily renounce their rights in order to free up an additional $6.7 million in cap room.
That said, the Blazers have already exercised team options worth $2.5 and $3 million, respectively, due to C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard, ensuring that Portland should hover in the range of $29 million when free agency opens.
Why does all this matter, you ask?
Well, with Aldridge, Matthews and Robin Lopez all set to hit unrestricted free agency, the Blazers will have some tough decisions to make.
According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, the Blazers presented Aldridge's camp with a max extension worth $55.5 million over three years this summer, which the power forward turned down as he seeks a five-year pact in the range of $108 million.
With that marriage looking like it will be extended, per Wojnarowski, that leaves Portland with a rather difficult decision.
Since the Blazers need to save a nice chunk of cap space in order to pay Damian Lillard when he becomes eligible for an extension next summer, Portland may be forced to choose between its prized perimeter and interior weapons.
So how much could Matthews be worth on the open market?
As Ryan A. Chase of Blazer's Edge wrote in September, trying to peg Matthews' value based on statistical measures alone is no easy task:
"For Matthews, his defensive skills are prized, but his offensive skills may be underestimated. His 6.3 offensive win shares last season were third best on the team behind Damian Lillard and Robin Lopez. He can be a streaky shooter, but when hot is one of the best marksmen in the league. His contributions are hard to measure traditionally, so finding a price point for him is just hard.
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Examining a list of next season's most generously compensated shooting guards, it's hard to imagine Matthews being paid anything less than eight figures annually.
| Player | Base Salary (2015-16) | Team |
| Kobe Bryant | $25,000,000 | Los Angeles Lakers |
| Joe Johnson | $24,894,863 | Brooklyn Nets |
| Dwyane Wade | $16,125,000 | Miami Heat |
| James Harden | $15,756,438 | Houston Rockets |
| Eric Gordon | $15,514,031 | New Orleans Pelicans |
| Gordon Hayward | $15,409,570 | Utah Jazz |
| Klay Thompson | $14,746,000 | Golden State Warriors |
| Andre Iguodala | $11,710,456 | Golden State Warriors |
| DeMar DeRozan | $9,500,000 | Toronto Raptors |
| Lance Stephenson | $9,000,000 | Charlotte Hornets |
While he shouldn't command a max offer like Gordon Hayward or near-max offer like Klay Thompson (Grantland's Zach Lowe provided a comprehensive breakdown of Thompson's complex deal), Matthews is worth a long-term investment from a team that's quickly assembled one of the league's most potent offenses.
Crossing the dreaded luxury tax threshold may be the only solution if Portland decides it wants to commit to both Matthews and Lopez, but sacrificing the former in lieu of a more cost-effective solution like McCollum doesn't jibe with the team's title window.
Regardless of whether Portland is the one to step up, though, Matthews' play indicates he'll be compensated handsomely when the free-agent signing period opens next summer.
Earning $7.2 million in the final year of his deal, a new agreement that pays anywhere in the range of $10-12 million annually would represent fair value for a dependable perimeter threat in a league devoid of depth at shooting guard.
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