Georgia RB Nick Chubb Is Not the Next Todd Gurley, He May Be Better

In the insistent refusal to compare Georgia freshman running back Nick Chubb to the man he’s replaced over the past three games, Todd Gurley, something interesting has happened.  Chubb has actually played better than the suspended one-time Heisman Trophy candidate.

The statistics tell the story with startling clarity.  In three starts, Chubb has racked up 599 yards of offense and five touchdowns.  In five games earlier this year, Gurley racked up 826 yards of offense and eight touchdowns.  Put bluntly: Nick Chubb’s average performance (199.67 yards and 1.67 touchdowns per game) has surpassed that of Todd Gurley (165.2 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game).

But these statistics are not anomalous representations.  Chubb has eclipsed 200-yard marker in total offense in two of his three starts.  In 29 career games, Gurley has reached such a total only once.  And Chubb’s worst game over this short stretch yielded 174 yards of offense.  Over the course of three seasons, Gurley has averaged under 130 rushing and receiving yards per contest.

Of course, statistics never tell the full story, but if anything, the narrative surrounding Chubb’s emergence should magnify his measurable output.

Chubb isn’t performing at this level in a vacuum.  On the contrary, he’s performing at a Heisman level himself in the face of multifaceted adversity.

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

Chubb, who was playing high school football this time last year, was thrust into the starting lineup in dire circumstances when Gurley, arguably the best running back in the country, was suspended in October.  Replacing a player of that caliber is never an easy task, but Chubb was not aided by what was supposed to be tremendous depth in the backfield as junior running back Keith Marshall and fellow freshman star Sony Michel were inactive due to injury.

Chubb didn’t merely pick up the work load of Todd Gurley; he picked up the workload of the entire backfield.  At 33 offensive touches per start, Chubb has averaged a heavier workload than Gurley has ever recorded in a single game.

And he’s done all of this against three noteworthy SEC opponents in three games away from the comforting confines of Sanford Stadium.

Chubb carried the ball 38 times and hauled in four receptions on the road against a Missouri team that currently sits atop the SEC East.  His ability to churn out yardage kept the Tigers from overcoming a slew of turnovers.

In a road game against Arkansas, a team that many expected to upset the Bulldogs, Chubb ran for 202 yards against a defense that is allowing just 136.8 rushing yards per game.

And in a disappointing loss to the Florida Gators, Chubb was the lone bright spot thanks to his 156 rushing yards and 59 yards through the air.

But the rarity of those types of performances seems to go unnoticed—or at least underappreciated—even by Georgia fans.  After all, the consistency with which Gurley changed games has become the new standard at Georgia.  But Chubb’s last three games have been stellar even relative to other national stars.

Wisconsin star Melvin Gordon is the lone running back still in serious contention for the Heisman Trophy.  His best three-game stretch against power-five opposition came against Northwestern, Illinois and Maryland.  Over the course of those three October games, Gordon accounted for 568 yards of offense.

Mark Ingram, the last running back to win the Heisman, put together just one comparable three-game run in 2009, when he accounted for 603 yards of offense in consecutive games against Kentucky, Ole Miss and South Carolina.

So, ironically, the comparisons between Chubb and Gurley may actually be unfair to the younger star running back not because he doesn't stack up, but because he comes out ahead.  And when his youth is considered, it’s hard not to heap lofty expectations on Chubb.  After all, his play as a true freshman has been every bit as good as Gurley, the consensus favorite to be the first running back selected in the 2015 NFL draft.

Gurley returns on November 15 for a game against the Auburn Tigers, and Georgia head coach Mark Richt told Seth Emerson of Macon’s The Telegraph that Gurley “can’t wait to play.”

If Chubb has another big game against Kentucky this week, Gurley may find himself in a competition for carries.

Unless otherwise noted, all quotes obtained firsthand and all stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.