Bowl Projections: Predicting College Football Playoff Matchups After Week 10

The weird thing about the College Football Playoff committee issuing a poll every week is how weirdly unnecessary it'll all seem in a few weeks. In the BCS system, polling mattered. Only two teams were going to get a chance to play for a national championship, and everyone needed a look to see how this convoluted formula worked.

There is no convoluted formula in the playoff system. There are 12 people in a room coming to a consensus, not unlike the selection committee for March Madness. Those respected folks meet once a year—when they are deciding which 68 teams to put into the NCAA tournament. There are explanations given afterward, but we're never provided with a Top 68 list because there's no need for one.

All of which is to say that while debating the CFB Playoff polls is nice, there is only one of them that matters. And that poll won't be coming out for more than a month.

So instead of parsing the latest outlook, which was released Tuesday night, let's instead look forward. We'll use the current rankings as a framework of the committee's mindset, but they're generally thrown out in favor of projections related to future performances.

Meaning, at this very moment, these are the two matchups I expect to see when the Dirty Dozen mails in its final term paper. So, anyway, let's hop to it.

No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Mississippi State

USA TODAY Sports

Despite their half-dozen close calls, Florida State is a near-lock for a playoff spot. The second-ranked Seminoles play three of their final four regular-season games at home, none coming against especially difficult competition. Boston College and Miami are both frisky, to the point betting expert RJ Bell indicated the Seminoles will open as an underdog against the Hurricanes.

That, of course, is lunacy. Florida State, despite its inherent flaws, has won all of its games. Controversial opinion alert: Winning is better than losing. Come hell, high water or 21-point deficits, Florida State has won 24 straight games. To make them an underdog at any point is disingenuous—at least until that high-wire act comes back to haunt them.

Florida State is good enough to navigate this minefield they call the ACC. And by minefield, I mean comfortably furnished Victorian home with stuffed animals for carpeting. 

Mississippi State, meanwhile, is a Call of Duty rookie navigating a field of experienced snipers. The Bulldogs have road trips to Alabama and rival Ole Miss sandwiched between gimmes against UT Martin and Vanderbilt. Given that Ole Miss sits No. 11 in the latest rankings, there is a strong possibility that Mississippi State will be facing its fourth and fifth Top 10 team of 2014 down the stretch.

Factor in a potential SEC Championship Game, and I don't see Dak Prescott and Co. getting through to January unscathed. The SEC is too daunting, and the West is almost masochistic in its difficulty.

That said, Dan Mullen's team is getting in if it finishes the regular season with one loss. The Bulldogs' back-to-back-to-back victories over Top 10 teams is perhaps the most impressive feat of this college football season. Their flaws are minimal. Prescott can get into trouble when he tries to do too much with his arm, and their special teams is weak enough that it could swing a game down the stretch.

Losing one game is totally within reason. Dropping two down the stretch would be ignoring the two-plus months of excellent football Mississippi State has turned in. Look for them to be the last team in with a single loss.

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Oregon

USA TODAY Sports

Yep, I realize putting Alabama in this spot means picking the Tide to defeat two of the nation's three best teams, go on the road to take down LSU and possibly win the conference outright. I realize that is a task more difficult than the one resting at Mississippi State's feet. I realize how impossible that sounds—especially for a team that dropped its only game against an elite opponent.

I also realize it is very dumb to bet against Nick Saban. Alabama has not lost more than one regular-season game since my sophomore year in college. Three of the past five seasons have seen the Tide play for a national championship, and they undoubtedly would have been given to a theoretical playoff in 2013.

Saban is the best, most prepared coach in the country. Lane Kiffin's offense has scored 93 points over its last two games after criticism reached a fever pitch following the Tide's 14-13 win over Arkansas. Saban's defense has not allowed more than 23 points all season; only Mississippi State, Alabama and Auburn rank top-10 nationally in Football Outsiders' FEI plus ratings on both sides of the ball. As we saw last season, Alabama having home-field advantage against Auburn might provide just enough boost to send the Tide into the playoffs.

As for Oregon, it all essentially comes down to Saturday. Get past 17th-ranked Utah on the road and it's clear sailing until the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Ducks close their regular season with games against Colorado and Oregon State, which boast a combined 1-10 record against intraconference opponents. That lone win? It was Oregon State defeating Colorado.

Utah doesn't have the offensive talent to take advantage of Oregon's defensive weaknesses. Travis Wilson's 165-pass interception-less streak is perhaps the nation's most misleading statistic. Wilson has not had a pass gain more than 20 yards since Sept. 27. Devontae Booker will give the Ducks' shaky run defense problems, and Utah has enough defensive talent to keep the game semi-close, but Oregon has scored 40-plus points in four straight games. I have a difficult time conjuring 28 for Utah.

Oregon is probably headed for a collision with Arizona State in the Pac-12 title game, which could mean anything in a few weeks. The Sun Devils play their biggest game of the season Saturday against Notre Dame. Hold home field and it's possible that Arizona State and Oregon are headed for a de facto play-in game for the playoffs.

Either way, advantage Oregon.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter