USC vs. Cal Complete Game Preview

WHEN: Thursday, Nov. 13; 9 p.m. ET

WHERE: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

TV: ESPN

The surprise of the 2014 Pac-12 football season comes to the Coliseum for a Thursday night showdown when 5-4 Cal squares off with 6-3 USC. 

The Golden Bears are a win away from gaining bowl eligibility for the first time since 2011 and would certainly love to gain it with their first defeat of the Trojans since 2003.

For USC, Thursday's contest is its last hurdle before facing back-to-back rivalry weeks. UCLA and Notre Dame loom as the final two dates on the Trojans' schedule.

Overlooking the upstart Golden Bears is one potential pitfall with the Bruins and Fighting Irish waiting, but a bye week heading into this Pac-12 matchup gave the Trojans an opportunity to be mentally and physically prepared. 

The physical component is particularly noteworthy. Head coach Steve Sarkisian gave the team the bye week off from practice to heal from injuries. As a result, the USC lineup on the field Thursday could be the closest to full strength it's been since Week 1. 

Any depth or energy gained from the time off will be needed when facing Cal head coach Sonny Dykes' explosive bear-raid offense. 

The Golden Bears come into the Coliseum averaging more than 41 points per game. 

Keys to Victory for USC

USA TODAY Sports

Don't Let Goff Go Off

Cal sophomore quarterback Jared Goff is putting together one of the most statistically impressive seasons of any player in the Pac-12 at 3,116 yards passing with 27 touchdowns and just four interceptions. 

Goff is the engine driving Dykes' potent offensive scheme, so it stands to reason that limiting his productivity is key to grounding the bear raid.

Indeed, the Golden Bears dropped three straight to Washington, UCLA and Oregon over a stretch in October, and during that run, Goff threw just four touchdown passes.

USC comes in with one of the better pass defenses in the Pac-12, snagging as many interceptions (11) as it has allowed touchdown throws.  

The secondary certainly deserves credit, and it will need to have another big game as a unit against the multifaceted Cal wide receiving corps. Goff can choose among six primary targets who have at least 21 catches on the year. 

But shutting down the Golden Bears' passing attack starts with denying them a run game. USC's defensive front must get into the backfield early and frustrate Cal's ball-carriers, thus forcing Goff to go to the air early. 

That might seem contradictory, but a stymied Cal run game allows USC to spend more time in nickel and dime packages without the threat of giving up long rushes. 

Maintain Killer Instinct 

In the days following USC's loss at Utah, Sarkisian talked about instilling "killer instinct." The Trojans had conceded fourth-quarter leads in each of their two Pac-12 losses, and an end-of-game collapse against Arizona came a missed field goal away from costing USC a third time.

The Trojans responded to their coach's challenge resoundingly at Washington State. When the Cougars pulled within 14 points early in the third quarter, USC rattled off 20 straight to pull away.

USC must once again keep the pressure on its opponent this week, particularly given Cal's ability to score points in bunches. A lead isn't necessarily safe against the Golden Bears' uptempo offense.  

Keys to Victory for Cal

USA TODAY Sports

Study (Basketball) Game Film

Cal's record when scoring 45 points or more is 4-1. Conversely, the Golden Bears are 1-3 when falling below that mark.

Obviously that's by design. While first-year defensive coordinator Art Kaufman has brought some improvement to a defense that ranked next-to-last in the Football Bowl Subdivision a season ago, the young Golden Bears are still the most porous bunch in the Pac-12.

Cal's best bet for victory is turning the game into a shootout. To wit, in three of its four wins in which it hit 45 points, Cal surrendered 56 and 59 points.

USC is going to get its points. That's virtually unavoidable.

But that's fine for Cal, if not expected. The Golden Bears would benefit from a score better suited to the hardwood than the gridiron—it is November, after all. 

Make USC a Passing Team 

In losses to UCLA and Oregon, Cal gave up  237 and 264 yards. Both outputs were strategically produced, as the Bruins and Ducks each aggressively pounded away on the Golden Bears' young, thin front seven with almost 50 carries each. 

Cal lost talented defensive end Brennan Scarlett for the season, only compounding the team's woes up front. USC is likely to try exploiting that weakness early with a heavy dose of running back Javorius "Buck" Allen. 

Slowing Allen will require Cal's best effort of the season, but it's vital to turn the USC offense one-dimensional. 

As good as quarterback Cody Kessler has been for much of the season, including throwing seven touchdown passes against Colorado for a USC record, the Trojans thrive on balanced play-calling. 

Cal must replicate Boston College's strategy at the point of the attack. The Eagles shut USC down to the tune of 20 rushing yards, forcing Kessler to pass 41 times. That's not USC's game. 

USC Players to Watch

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

Offense

RB Javorius "Buck" Allen

Among the many gems Allen produced late last season was his performance at Cal. He scored three touchdowns and put up 192 yards of total offense—and he did it all on just seven plays. 

You read that right: Allen caught one pass for 57 yards and averaged more than 22 yards on his six carries, tearing through the porous Golden Bears defense. 

Sarkisian has talked extensively this season about increasing the amount of "explosive plays" his offense produces. Allen set quite a high bar for such plays against Cal. 

Matching that standard early on Thursday should put the Golden Bears back on their heels early. 

WR George Farmer

In his return from a two-game absence due to injury, George Farmer seamlessly stepped in to grab three passes for 61 yards at Washington State.

It was easily Farmer's best game statistically since coming to USC, and his continued emergence could be an X-factor for the Trojans offense.

Nelson Agholor came into the season the established No. 1 receiver. Agholor has maintained his place as Kessler's primary target. Freshman John "JuJu" Smith is stepping up as the No. 2 target.

Throw the speedy Farmer into the mix, and USC boasts a formidable top three in its receiving corps.  

Defense

LB Hayes Pullard 

Hayes Pullard has an opportunity to write his name at the top of USC's record books as the program's all-time career leader in tackles.

"

 

"

Tackling machine: LB Hayes Pullard (@FightOn10) is 46 tackles away from the USC career record (Marcus Cotton). pic.twitter.com/VshtqDl3yM

— USC Trojans (@USC_Athletics) November 7, 2014"

"

Considering the greats to have donned cardinal and gold before him, setting the new record would be a remarkable achievement.

Pullard won't set the mark Thursday, but the amount of plays Cal runs per game—80, according to CalBears.com—means the senior linebacker will have plenty of opportunities to pad his numbers in pursuit of history. 

Cal Players to Watch

USA TODAY Sports

Offense

RB Daniel Lasco

Focus on Dykes' offense is usually on the passing element, but running back Daniel Lasco is quietly having a big year with 796 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns.

Lasco is coming off his best game to date: a 188-yard, three-touchdown performance in Cal's win at Oregon State.

"Once [Oregon State] tried to stop [Goff], we just had to ground and pound," Lasco told Jeff Faraudo of the San Jose Mercury News. 

Cal's ability to mix it up like that is part of what makes this offense dangerous, and Lasco is the run-game catalyst.  

QB Luke Rubenzer

No, Luke Rubenzer isn't the gun-slinging starter putting up monster numbers in Dykes' bear-raid offense. But Rubenzer is a possible thorn in the side of the USC defense. 

Dykes uses the freshman in order to mix up play-calling, introducing a zone-read facet. Having that additional look doesn't just mean USC defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox is left preparing for more diversity; Rubenzer can also challenge an aspect of the Trojans defense that has been its most significant weakness in recent years. 

USC's struggles defending zone-read offenses came to a head this season in Week 3 when Boston College's Tyler Murphy went off for 191 yards rushing. 

The Trojans were much better against Arizona's Anu Solomon, but they must be ready to respond similarly when Cal sends Rubenzer into action. 

Defense

LB Michael Barton

Michael Barton is Cal's leader in tackles and tackles for loss. He can add to the latter category against a USC offense that ranks No. 111 in the Football Bowl Subdivision for tackles for loss allowed with 69.

Barton is the Golden Bears' best hope of slowing down the Trojans just enough to give their explosive offense enough breathing room to operate. 

What They're Saying

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

USC 

Sarkisian on his Nov. 2 weekly conference call, describing former colleague Pete Carroll's success in November and how USC can replicate it: 

"

The biggest thing I got from Pete was [that] by November, you have a pretty good idea of the strengths of your team. You start to lean on those strengths in November. We've experimented with this, we've experimented with that...Here comes November, we're going to lean on the things we know we do well, and they're proven we do well. You preach that to your team.

"

Cal 

Dykes during the Nov. 4 Pac-12 coaches teleconference, discussing Goff's improvement and what's been different in his second year: 

"

We were terrible last year and so he was just trying to generate some points and move the football. [He] would force some things because we had to. We were down early in so many football games and just not very competitive. What happens...is your quarterback starts thinking, 'I've got to make a play here, I've got to make a play there,' instead of taking what the defense gives him.

"

Lasco on getting above .500 with the Oregon State win and building on the momentum, via CalBears.com: 

"

Every single game is important. I'm excited right now, but come tomorrow, we start focusing on USC. This was a huge one. We all knew it was this big coming into it. We were sitting at 4-4, but I kept telling the team we were 0-0 and it was a whole new season about to start. It feels good, it feels real good; but this train is not going to stop right here.

"

Prediction

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Thursday's matchup between USC and Cal is the 102nd meeting in a series dating back 99 years. Both those numbers are appropriate, because the final combined score could very well be somewhere between 99 and 102.

OK, so that might be a stretch. But even with marked improvement from a year ago when it surrendered 62 points to the Trojans, the Cal defense still sports the Pac-12's worst opponent point-per-game average at 39.9.

The question facing USC isn't so much if it will score points—the Trojans should have no trouble getting in the end zone. Doing so more than a prolific Cal offense is the more pressing concern.  

Moreover, how USC gets its points will be a storyline worth following. The last time the Trojans were in the Coliseum, Kessler threw for a record seven touchdowns in a 56-28 romp over Colorado.

Look for USC to take control early in the third quarter and lead comfortably much of the way, with Cal tacking on some points late.

Prediction: USC 49, Cal 35

Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise cited. Statistics courtesy of CFBstats.com.