Greg Roman's Approach Is Steering the San Francisco 49ers Toward Mediocrity

The San Francisco 49ers were one yard away from beating the St. Louis Rams Sunday. It was the sort of script cut straight from Kevin Dyson’s nightmares or a Tony D’Amato rant that crescendos when a fallen man speaks about inches and the lessons of past failures while sporadically screaming (NSFW language).

It’s every football cliche ever. And for the 49ers it was also a 13-10 loss in the most agonizingly avoidable way possible.

The 49ers had the ball on St. Louis' 5-yard line with one timeout and 46 seconds left. There was no need for urgency, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman had time to be comfortable while leaning on the strengths of his unit. With that timeout in his pocket he had a chance to hammer away with one of his team’s two power running backs, Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde. He could put the ball safely in their hands and ask them to push the pile forward.

With those two he had an option that presented a far greater opportunity for forward momentum and less risk without the ball dangling perilously from the quarterback’s hands during a sneak.

Instead bumbling and eventually fumbling followed.

Go ahead and turn several shades of red while watching the replay of quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s plunge if you’re the sort who chooses to focus solely on the officials and a difficult call. But know that anger is misplaced.

The fumble ruling was only questionable in the sense that no call on a play of this nature—a ball-carrier disappearing through a sea of large bodies at the goal line—will be sufficiently definitive. Officials on the field saw the ball coming out before Kaepernick hit the ground, and due to the wall of humanity around him they couldn’t get a replay angle to conclusively reverse their ruling.

We may not be far away from more technology and blinking lights being introduced. But for now this is the replay system we have, and it's not perfect.

Your anger at those wearing black and white stripes should be directed toward the ruling on wide receiver Michael Crabtree’s catch two plays earlier.

As he so often does Kaepernick targeted Crabtree on a quick throw wide to his right from the 2-yard line. The throw was low though still catchable. Crabtree bobbled it, but did he have control when the ball broke the plane of the goal line?

Maybe? Probably? The result is in the eye and bias of the viewer.

The problem was that when Crabtree established full control after hitting the ground and rolling he was then out of the end zone. Rulings about what constitutes control and a catch in the NFL have foreign-language-level clarity.

But the best place to direct your angst is at Roman and by extension head coach Jim Harbaugh.

On that goal-line sequence the 49ers were able to run three plays either at or inside the Rams’ 2-yard line. They had the ball there with 42 seconds left and with a timeout that was more than ample time to summon Gore or Hyde.

Yet instead Roman’s focus was horizontal, not straight ahead. Crabtree was targeted wide, followed by a throw away after a rollout and then Kaepernick’s misery that ended the game.

It’s all a familiar 49ers horror film we’ve already seen this season, and now at 4-4 they’ve fallen to an even .500 record. That’s mediocre and average by definition.

The 49ers are at their worst when there’s a departure from a core offensive structure. Power is central to everything they do offensively, and it starts with the running backs and the equally powerful run blocking in front of them.

Combined the two San Francisco running backs were given 16 carries Sunday, and they were averaging 21 per game prior to Week 9. That may seem like only a minor game-planning detour if it were any other opponent and any other defense. But the Rams entered this week with the league’s 31st-ranked run defense, allowing 144.3 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.

Still Gore and Hyde watched for much of the game, even when it mattered most.

Even if they’re not hammering away for significant gains, power running backs are still being productive when fed the ball consistently. A primary function is slowing down aggressive pass-rushers, which was desperately needed Sunday afternoon.

The Rams pass rush teed off on Kaepernick repeatedly, highlighting the vulnerability of a 49ers offensive line that was already struggling and is now dealing with the loss of center Daniel Kilgore.

Kaepernick was sacked a career-high eight times, one of which ended in a fumble that gifted the Rams a touchdown and life at the end of a first half when they were otherwise dominated.

Throughout league history there have only been 20 games when a quarterback was sacked at least eight times, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. Kaepernick’s Week 9 beating now puts him on that exclusive list alongside legendary names like J.T. O’Sullivan, Kevin Kolb and John Beck.

Facing a historically painful volume of pressure is even worse when we consider that, well, it was the Rams.

Between defensive end Robert Quinn and freakishly athletic rookie defensive tackle Aaron Donald, the Rams’ front four offers plenty to be scared about. However, despite that talent they've struggled to get pressure this season. Opposing offenses have minimized pass-rushing opportunities by either a) running the ball down up the gut or b) focusing on short passes and getting the ball out more quickly.

The 49ers did neither, and by the end of the first half the Rams had equaled their sack total on the season.

	Passing attempts faced	Sacks
Prior to Week 9	206	6
Week 9 vs. 49ers	33	8

There’s a deeper problem now with the 49ers’ offensive line, one that could quickly derail playoff hopes.

Between the Rams and the Denver Broncos two weeks ago San Francisco has faced some of the league’s most imposing pass-rushers. And against that highest-caliber of competition Kaepernick has been sacked 14 times over his last eight quarters of play.

Looked at from a different and more excruciating angle: Over that stretch Kaepernick has been sacked once every 5.1 dropbacks.

That’s how a season spirals. The problem grows and festers when a potential remedy, the running game, is pushed aside again and then entirely forgotten in the red zone, where the 49ers are ranked 31st. It grows and festers when Stevie Johnson is neglected and targeted only three times even though he’s the team's most efficient receiver.

All of it—the mismanagement of key assets and the leaky offensive line—has now grown to the point that the 49ers are three games back of the division-leading Arizona Cardinals, and they’ve already matched last year’s loss total.