Bowl Predictions 2014: Latest Playoff Projections Before Week 11 Rankings
There are college football games on the Week 11 schedule on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday, but the real news will be when the College Football Playoff selection committee releases its new batch of rankings.
The Top Four will certainly look different than it did in the initial rankings since Ole Miss lost its second game of the season.
Teams like Oregon, Notre Dame, Kansas State, TCU and even Michigan State will be holding their collective breath in anticipation of where they stand. However, the actual playoff field will almost assuredly be different than the Week 11 rankings considering how many marquee showdowns are still on the schedule.
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With all that in mind, here is a look at the latest playoff projections before the Week 11 rankings are released.
Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Mississippi State
Rose Bowl: No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Alabama
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (Semifinal Winners)
Florida State will win out and finish undefeated with the majority of its difficult games behind it. Alabama is hitting its stride as a dominant force and will also win out. That would give the Crimson Tide the SEC title, which would virtually lock them into the field of four.
Mississippi State will lose one game this season (to Alabama), but wins against Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss would give the Bulldogs enough substance on the resume to make the playoffs.
Michigan State will defend home-field advantage against Ohio State in Week 11 and win the Big Ten. The Big 12 contenders, Pac-12 contenders and Notre Dame will all lose at least two games this year, which will open up an additional spot for the Spartans.
Week 11 Showdowns With Playoff Implications
Week 11 is a college football fan’s dream.
When the regular season is over, we will likely look back at Saturday’s slate of games as some of the defining few hours of the entire championship race. Among the marquee games are showdowns between Ohio State and Michigan State, Oregon and Utah, Alabama and LSU, Kansas State and TCU, Notre Dame and Arizona State and Baylor and Oklahoma.
Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports noted how many ranked teams will be playing each other, while Matt Brown of Sports on Earth pointed out that fans better have their remote control skills ready to go on Saturday:
The winner of the showdown between the Buckeyes and Spartans will likely still need some help to reach the playoffs, but the loser will almost assuredly be eliminated with a second loss. As if that wasn’t enough pressure, the winner will have the inside track to a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.
It is no wonder that ESPN’s College GameDay is going to be there:
This is a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship Game. Michigan State upset the Buckeyes, ended Urban Meyer’s 24-game winning streak to start his tenure at Ohio State and prevented the Buckeyes from reaching the national championship game.
Linebacker Darron Lee wants revenge, via Doug Lesmerises of Cleveland.com: "We feel like these guys took something from us. It's full metal jacket now, we're trying to go win this game. Everyone is focused, this game is here now, and we want to go take it."
While the Buckeyes want to go take it, the home crowd under the lights will be the difference for Michigan State. Ohio State looked lost offensively at times against Penn State, an inferior opponent, in a raucous road atmosphere. The crowd will be rocking in East Lansing, and the Michigan State squad that lines up on the other side will be much better than the Penn State one the Buckeyes recently beat.
Elsewhere, Utah may be the last true obstacle standing between Oregon and the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Ducks should handle Colorado and Oregon State, so fringe playoff contenders (like Ohio State and Michigan State, among others) should certainly be on the Utes’ bandwagon in Week 11.
The showdown between Alabama and LSU may have lost some of its luster when the Tigers picked up a second loss earlier in the season, but we just saw how difficult it is to beat LSU at home when Ole Miss lost there in Week 9. The Crimson Tide will be tested early and often by a stiff defense and a deafening crowd.
Perhaps the most underrated showdown in Week 11 is the one between Big 12 title contenders Kansas State and TCU.
The Wildcats and Horned Frogs both lost heartbreakers (to Auburn and Baylor, respectively) earlier in the year, and this is something of an elimination game in the playoff race. TCU brings the nation’s second-leading scoring offense to the table against Kansas State’s 12th-best scoring defense.
Something has to give.
Elsewhere in the Big 12, Baylor will be tested by an Oklahoma squad that is on the outside looking in with two losses. The Sooners may not be playing for a playoff spot themselves, but they could certainly play spoilers and knock the Bears out of contention with a home victory on Saturday.
Finally, Notre Dame will have its hands more than full with a road trip to Arizona State. The Sun Devils are one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about (likely because many of their games take place in the wee hours of the night on the East Coast) and will test Notre Dame with a balanced offensive attack.
Like so many other showdowns in Week 11, the loser will in all likelihood be eliminated from the playoff race.
Buckle up, because the playoffs essentially start on Saturday for many teams facing must-win scenarios.
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