College Football Playoff Rankings 2014: Predictions for Week 11
Another wild and unpredictable college football weekend is just fresh in the books, but it's already time to assess the damage and figure out how the College Football Playoff should look entering Week 11.
There were huge tests on tap for every team currently in the CFP top four, and not all of them prevailed. Well, that would be obvious with two teams—Auburn and Ole Miss—facing each other, but the far-reaching implications from Week 10 don't start and end in Oxford, Mississippi by any means.
The first-ever CFP rankings were just released before Week 10, but there's considerable work to be done for the committee before another batch of rankings hits the presses.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Let's do some of the work for them and decide how the CFP is likeliest to play out at the end of the season after what we saw throughout Week 10.
1. Mississippi State
Mississippi State is done making statements. The Bulldogs are just trying to stay perfect in the toughest division in college football, and they did so for yet another week with a 17-10 win over Arkansas at home.
The victory improved the Bulldogs to their best record since before the turn of the millennium, as per ESPN Stats and Info:
The Bulldogs were nearly put on upset alert in each of their last two games against Kentucky and Arkansas, but it's not about the style points when you're undefeated in the SEC. It's about simply surviving and advancing, and Mississippi State will know that better than ever down the stretch.
Two of Dan Mullen's toughest matchups are yet to come: facing Alabama on the road on Nov. 15 and Ole Miss also on the road in the Egg Bowl to close out the season.
Despite those gigantic matchups looming, it's hard to bet against Mississippi State. Dak Prescott just gets it done when the game is on the line, and as long as he's healthy and effective, the defense doesn't need to be dominant.
2. Florida State
It's looking less and less likely that Florida State's unbeaten streak will end in the 2014 regular season.
In what many pegged as the last best chance for the Seminoles to fall from the ranks of the undefeated, Florida State slipped past No. 25 Louisville on Thursday night in a tough matchup, 42-31. It suffered an early 21-point deficit, but Jameis Winston found his groove late and didn't look back.
Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel summed up the Florida State win in the most blunt way possible:
To be fair, he's probably right. Winning out would most certainly put Florida State into the four-team playoff. All that's left are games against Virginia, Miami, Boston College, Florida and the ACC title game more than likely versus Duke again.
Florida's shocking win over Georgia this weekend may make that end-of-season tilt a bit tougher, but the Gators are no match defensively for Winston. The Seminoles have mastered the art of winning ugly against inferior teams, even when the other team pulls out all the stops.
As far as if that recipe will work in the CFP, the Seminoles look like they'll at least get the chance to find out.
3. Auburn
Gus Malzahn once again looks like the guy with the magic tricks in his back pocket this college football season.
If Saturday's SEC West showdown between Auburn and Ole Miss was indeed a CFP elimination game, then the Tigers are very much alive and well in their quest to make up for last year's defeat in the final BCS title game ever.
They almost never do it in convincing fashion, and there are always deficiencies to point out—like porous tackling or massive penalty troubles, at least on Saturday. But when it comes to winning close games, Auburn is among the best.
They faced a championship-caliber battle from Ole Miss who simply refused to accept a second straight defeat, but the Tigers stepped up to the task again. Travis Haney of ESPN said how Malzahn makes sense of it:
The defeat to Mississippi State hasn't lingered long at all for Auburn, as the team has bounced back with two huge victories over South Carolina and now Ole Miss. The Tigers should out-class Texas A&M and Georgia in their upcoming two games before closing the season at Alabama.
Auburn doesn't control its own destiny in the SEC West, but winning out would most definitely get the Tigers into the top four. Toppling Alabama on the road won't be easy, but Auburn now has two huge road wins on the year against the Rebels and Kansas State.
4. Oregon
The Oregon Ducks might not be the fourth-best team in the country after Week 10, but they're in perfect position to make the CFP at the end of the season.
Alabama still has Mississippi State and Auburn both to play. A couple of other SEC teams could throw things for a loop with one upset. The one-loss Big 12 teams all face uphill climbs to win the favor of the committee.
But Oregon? It was the first team out of the top four in the first rankings released and is likely to be the last team in when the Week 11 rankings are out.
The Ducks stomped a Stanford team at home that has given them so many fits in recent memory, taking the 45-16 victory. Oregon can impress again by beating Utah next weekend.
Mississippi State, Florida State and Auburn will all stay ahead of Oregon should each continue its winning ways, but the Ducks are on a collision course for the Pac-12 title game. Should they end that game with a 12-1 record, nothing will keep Mark Helfrich's squad from being one of the four.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
