MLB's Power Players and Teams That Will Sway Big Offseason Shifts
The games are done. The championship is won. The awards are voted on.
Yet baseball still has a pumping pulse and plenty of energy.
One of the sport’s more intriguing times of the year is upon us. The Hot Stove season brings hope and anticipation, as even last-place teams become relevant again. Free agency, trades and overall roster turnover inherently brings baseball excitement in the fall and winter, with an eye toward spring training optimism.
This year, as usual, there are certain people who can sway and shift the markets. They are either seeking impact players, have one or two to sell or are the players themselves. Before the drama starts to play out, take a look at the impact people and teams of this offseason.
Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, Chicago Cubs President and GM, Respectively
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The Chicago Cubs have already made a splash to signal their offseason intentions, and they didn’t even wait until the end of the World Series. Epstein’s call to fire manager Rick Renteria and hand his job to Joe Maddon is a clear sign that the Cubs’ time is now. The executives have the young core in place, they have the high-profile manager to lead it and now they are willing to write some massive checks.
Epstein and Hoyer are expected to be aggressive in the trade and free-agent markets. They already placed a claim on Philadelphia Phillies ace Cole Hamels, who is set to make $90 million over the next four seasons, but the Phillies pulled him back. Still, it signaled the Cubs’ willingness to spend to contend next year. It would not be shocking if Epstein and Hoyer revisited that well again this winter.
Then again, maybe they don’t have to. The Cubs have clear interest in free-agent pitcher Jon Lester, and they could even be in on Max Scherzer, according to The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo. If this happens, it takes two aces off the market and drastically alters the pitching markets in both free agency and trade, not to mention the National League Central.
It is entirely likely other free agents and their representatives don’t want that to happen. If it does, it is probable that both Lester and Scherzer have taken less money than expected, tamping down the asking prices for James Shields and a secondary market that includes Francisco Liriano, Brandon McCarthy, Ervin Santana and Edinson Volquez.
Besides the aces, Chicago is interested in mid-rotation guys. McCarthy, Jason Hammel and Santana come to mind. If the Cubs land an ace, they could pick up one of these other pitchers, also helping determine what that secondary market looks like.
Scott Boras, Super Agent
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Scott Boras is no stranger to walking into the offseason with a big-ticket free agent at his side. This year, it is Scherzer, the former Detroit Tigers ace and 2013 Cy Young Award winner. And if speculation is correct, Scherzer will be seeking somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 million, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (subscription required).
At this point, it seems unlikely that a team will be willing to commit that much money and time—most likely seven years—to a pitcher who turns 31 next season. And as we’ve seen in the recent past, Boras has overshot market expectations and his clients have been left dangling as spring training report dates approach. There is also the fact that Scherzer will be tied to a draft pick, and as we’ve seen with some others, that kind of tag can keep teams away.
If Boras and Scherzer misread the market and hold out for an astronomical payday that he is probably not worth considering his age and the flooded market, it could alter the pitching landscape over the next two months since it is likely Scherzer will be the guy who sets the price. If he holds out past the start of the new year, not only does his price go down, but it could drop the prices of other free-agent pitchers depending on their wait.
Then again, if a team is willing to pay the asking price early on, it will drive up the prices for Lester, Shields and the others.
Scherzer could buck the trend, however, and demand that Boras work out a deal with a certain team, or he could insist that he likes a certain contract that is well below $200 million. If the client pushes his weight around in that way early enough, the rest of the pitching dominos will fall soon after.
Jon Lester, Free-Agent Pitcher
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While everyone expects Scherzer to set the market as the best available pitcher, Lester does not have to wait around. He is nearly as good—Lester has a 128 ERA+ over the last two seasons and Scherzer is at 135 over the same time—and only six months older.
If he decides he wants to sign with the Cubs, the Boston Red Sox or whatever team he falls for, Lester can be the guy who sets the market.
If Lester wants to make his move early, the asking price could be around $160 million over six years, as Bleacher Report's Jacob Shafer noted Friday. If Lester does ask for that kind of money, it would certainly drive down Scherzer’s price and likely lead to a long hold out for him and Boras.
An early signing for Lester could also mean the secondary pitching market will soon follow. If Scherzer is unwilling to come down to Lester's price, the alternatives will become far more attractive, and it could also lead to a rush in the trade market for guys like Hamels and Oakland's Jeff Samardzija.
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Andrew Friedman, Los Angeles Dodgers President of Baseball Operations
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If Ned Colletti were still in charge of the money and roster, the Los Angeles Dodgers would probably be linked to Scherzer, Lester, Hamels and several others, including hitters.
But since the front-office shuffle that brought in Friedman from the Tampa Bay Rays, that thinking has changed. Friedman, and whoever he hires as his GM, will be committed to building the next Dodger core from within, which means far less spending on the free-agent market.
That still leaves work to be done, though.
There is the logjam in the outfield that has to be cleared soon. Joc Pederson is major league-ready, and if the team waits on him much longer, it is going to waste his early year production—he will be 23 in April—in the minors. How the Dodgers create space for him is the intriguing part.
Matt Kemp looked to be rounding back into elite form in the second half of the season, and he is still owed $107 million over the next five years. Now is the time to sell high on him to create room in center field for Pederson. Then again, if Kemp does continue his resurgence, the Dodgers are going to be trading away an all-around player who can potentially be an MVP-caliber outfielder for the next few seasons. This is their current dilemma.
The other option is to trade Andre Ethier and eat a massive chunk of his remaining $56 million—he has a $17.5 million club option for 2018 that will most likely end up being a $2.5 million buyout.
Don’t expect Friedman and co. to throw their cash around at free agents, but the way handle their outfield situation could sway how other teams see the market.
Brian Cashman, New York Yankees General Manager
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Brian Cashman is still in his seat, and this time there are (relatively) no financial restrictions on how he improves the New York Yankees. That doesn’t mean it will be easy.
The Yankees are so locked into big, bad contracts, there is only so much Cashman can do. The obvious start is the rotation, where there is plenty to pick from. He might attempt to bring back Brandon McCarthy, who proved he can pitch in New York by posting a 134 ERA+ in 90.1 innings with the Yankees. He won’t be cheap, though. It’s possible he could net around $30 million for three years, per ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand, and he will be 32 in July.
In a rotation with plenty of health questions, signing an older player who has pitched 200 innings only once in his career might not be the answer to get the Yankees back to the top of the division.
Cashman might want to go bigger, and if he does, it could change the pitching landscape. The Yankees don’t have enough trade pieces to be in on Hamels, but they have enough money to sit down with Scherzer, Lester and Shields. Assuming a healthy rest of the rotation, any one of those names would give the Yankees the best rotation in the American League East and again make them title contenders.
Philadelphia Phillies
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The Philadelphia Phillies have the Cole Hamels chip, and general manager Ruben Amaro has already admitted the team “may not be a contender” for the next two seasons. That statement seems to foreshadow a Hamels trade that brings back top prospects.
Amaro pulled back on a trade with the Cubs in August, and he clearly wasn’t looking for just a salary dump, because the Cubs were willing to take on Hamel’s contract. The Cubs may be more willing to part with prospects this winter, especially if Scherzer and Lester are asking for those $200 million contracts.
The Phillies are being buried in the National League East by every other team in the division, but they still haven’t made a strong commitment to rebuilding. If they do, they will have to eat big chunks of some of the untradeable contracts they are paying out, including Chase Utley's. However, Utley does not seem keen on a trade, and his 10-and-5 rights allow him to veto any trade because he has 10 years in the big leagues and five with the same team.
Oakland A's
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The Oakland A’s might not contend either, and GM Billy Beane may shrewdly dismantle the team by ridding it of two of its biggest assets, pitcher Jeff Samardzija and third baseman Josh Donaldson. Moving either or both of those parts shifts the weight of the AL West and immediately improves any team that lands one of those two—or both.
The A’s traded for Samardzija last July, and he was a stud in Oakland, putting up a 3.14 ERA after the deal. For teams unwilling to pay big for Scherzer, Lester or Shields, making a deal for Samardzija might be the next best deal. He has one year left before free agency, so the asking price might not be as outrageous as once thought.
As for Donaldson, it wouldn’t be a shock if Beane traded a player, Donaldson, with the fourth-best WAR in the American League. But an A’s official shot down that idea last month to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Of course, that means very little if the price is right.
Boston Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox are a weird team as they stand, too old in some places and not quite old enough in others. That means they could look at Hamels, Lester, Scherzer and Shields as well as trading for younger players or another major league-ready pitcher by trading Yoenis Cespedes, a free agent after next season.
Cespedes has become a highly overrated player since the A’s collapsed after they traded him. Reality is he was a worse player in Boston than he was in Oakland—he had a 115 OPS+ with the A’s and was at 100 for the Red Sox—and he might have more value to Boston as a trade piece.
The Red Sox have the prospects to be aggressive with a trade, either for Samardzija or Hamels, and that might be the better way to go since they don’t know exactly how some of the prospects will pan out. Better to sell on promise than disappointment.
It would also keep payroll down, as the alternative would be signing one of the Big Three free-agent pitchers. None of them will come cheap, including former ace Lester. Then there is the organization’s hesitation to give long-term deals to pitcher’s in their 30s, but Lester could be an exception.
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