2014 Breeders' Cup: Last-Minute Predictions and Picks for the Classic
The Breeders’ Cup Classic is the high-water mark of an epic two days of racing. It is the finest cut of beef on the cow that is the racing calendar.
And before the 14 horses erupt in a Rohanian cavalry charge, it’s worth taking a microscopic look at the field for some last-minute predictions and picks. After all, the Classic deserves this kind of attention.
Many divisional honors are up for grabs in this race: Champion Three-Year-Old, Champion Older Horse and Horse of the Year.
Read on to see how this race is likely to shake out.
The Long Shots
1 of 5
Prayer for Relief, 30-1, Post 1
This son of Jump Start ran a huge figure—a 105 Beyer—while running third to Itsmyluckyday in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga.
He stayed within three to four lengths of the front-running Moreno but didn’t have a strong enough kick down the lane. He’s been training just fine at Santa Anita, but he hasn’t run since August 30, and that’s a concern.
Dale Romans, Prayer’s trainer, said on BreedersCup.com, "He's been running against the best horses in the country and in the biggest races on the East Coast, and he has been very competitive in every one of them. I think he's sitting on his biggest race of the year, and if a couple of others of them falter a little bit, he could win this race."
Prayer for Relief should be mid-pack and will try to make a final push at the leaders in the final quarter.
Imperative, 30-1, Post 3
Sure, Imperative gets the jockey services of European phenom Frankie Dettori, but this son of Bernardini is a notch below the best in this field.
He ran a big one in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic (a 107 Beyer), a race where all the show horses ran big numbers. He’s a deep closer, and given the fact that there will be pace in this race, Imperative could make some noise down the stretch.
This gelding could fill out the bottom half of superfectas at a pretty nice price.
Cigar Street, 12-1, Post 2
I still don’t understand how this horse is 12-1 on the morning line. He won the ungraded Homecoming Stakes at Churchill Downs, run at nine furlongs, in a tepid time of one minute, 49 4/5 seconds. He defeated only five other horses of middling ability, yet he’s 12-1.
What he does have in his corner is Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Mott won this race with Drosselmeyer in 2011 and with Cigar in the 90s.
Cigar Street will be forwardly placed, but he won’t have the speed to keep up with Moreno and Bayern.
Footbridge, 30-1, Post 10
There isn’t much to say about this colt. He’s never broken 97 on the Beyer Speed Figures and is a few cuts below the best horses here.
Footbridge is in the deep end here, folks. His list of honorable mentions features finishing within 2 1/2 lengths of Shared Belief in the Awesome Again Stakes. That was a race where Shared Belief traveled many lengths farther than Footbridge and runner-up Fed Biz.
It’ll be the back half of the field for this son of Street Cry.
The Dark Horses
2 of 5
V.E. Day, 20-1, Post 5
V.E. Day, the son of a Champion Turf Horse (English Channel), has run one big race in his career to date, that being the Travers when he nosed out stablemate Wicked Strong. That 102 Beyer was huge, and he bounced to a 93 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
He’s a deep closer and ran into modest half-mile fractions in his three wins prior to the JCGC (48, 47 and 47 seconds).
This colt needs to be closer to the pace so he gets an honest shot at the leaders turning for home.
Moreno, 20-1, Post 4
One thing we know for sure: Moreno will gun for the lead. He has no speed to his left, so he’ll get a clear shot at a rail-skimming trip. We also know he has never won at 10 furlongs.
He won the Whitney back in early August wire-to-wire, finished a half-length back in the Woodward and was disqualified to ninth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
There’s no mystery with this horse, which is nice when handicapping. It takes some of the head-scratching guess work out of that ink in the Daily Racing Form. He’ll get an easy chance at the lead, but he won’t be alone, and that could spell the end of Moreno.
Majestic Harbor, 20-1, Post 14
This son of Rockport Harbor won the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita back in June. It was run at 10 furlongs, and that gives him an edge over many of these horses. It was a decent time too: 2:01 and 2/5.
He’s been in downward form ever since that big effort in the Gold Cup, going from a 111 to a 100 to 95. He hasn’t been training particularly well, so it’s hard to back this horse.
Having won at 10 furlongs and carrying a familiar jockey, Tyler Baze, will be the saving grace for Majestic Harbor.
Candy Boy, 20-1, Post 12
Candy Boy has developed nicely since running 13th in the Kentucky Derby. His last two efforts have been promising, with speed figures of 101 and 100. This is his first try against older horses.
He also runs into horses like California Chrome and Bayern who smoked him in the Kentucky Derby (Chrome) and Pennsylvania Derby (Bayern).
Candy Boy has tactical speed that puts him in the middle of the pack. This makes him a bigger threat than some of the deep closers. If the favorites and contenders take a step back and Candy Boy moves forward, he could be a long-shot winner of this Classic.
The Contenders
3 of 5
Bayern, 6-1, Post 7
This horse is wickedly fast. The real question is whether he can carry his speed beyond nine furlongs. The two times Bayern stretched beyond nine (Preakness and Travers), he finished ninth and 10th.
If you draw a line through those races, he has won six of seven starts from seven furlongs to nine. He even set a track record in the Pennsylvania Derby at nine furlongs.
He will be on the lead or right on Moreno’s right flank the entire way around the oval. He broke like a shot in the Travers, and he’ll get the jump on Shared Belief and V.E. Day to his left.
If he catches a speed-biased track, watch out. He could take these cats all the way around.
Zivo, 15-1, Post 8
Zivo is the best closer in this field, but he’ll be last of them all at first call. He has won five of his seven starts in 2014 and closed well in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Woodward.
Even in the Woodward, where he finished fourth, he threaded his way through to show his ability to get up to the wire in traffic.
That makes him dangerous in exotics.
Toast of New York, 12-1, Post 9
In just his second start on U.S. soil, Toast of New York put up a scintillating 111 Beyer in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. The problem was he still lost. Shared Belief ran even bigger that day.
Toast of New York won the Group 2 UAE Derby in Dubai and didn’t run again until July. It appears this colt needs a lot of time between races, and that may be his undoing. He ran that big number on August 24.
If there’s any hangover from that effort, the two months may not be enough for him to run back to that number. But if he does? He’s dangerous.
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The Favorites
4 of 5
Tonalist, 5-1, Post 11
The Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner is the only three-year-old with a win over older horses. He’s also one of the most consistently good horses in this field.
He finished off the board just once in his career—the first start of his career. Since then, his worst finish was third in the Travers Stakes.
Andrew Beyer of The Washington Post writes, "Tonalist’s forte is running 1 1/4 miles or longer. Unlike California Chrome, he is clearly in peak condition. He overcame trouble to win his last start, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but he was beating a sub-par field by the standards of that historic event."
He’s got a great running style to win at 10 furlongs. He’s usually forwardly placed and can rate right off the speed. The one time he had to close was in the Jockey Club. He can do it all and is probably the biggest threat to Shared Belief.
California Chrome, 4-1, Post 13
Post 13 is a recipe for a wide trip for this Derby winner. He also hasn’t run well since May, so he’s hard to back even at a long price, let alone 4-1.
He’s the resident feel-good story and the first Derby winner to run in the Classic since Mine That Bird in 2009. It’s hard to believe he’s going to run back to the 108 Beyer he earned in the Santa Anita Derby back in April, but it was over this very track that he earned that number.
Beyer writes:
"Bettors ought to be skeptical. It is hard to be confident in a horse who hasn’t run a good race since May. And even if he returned to top form, is that form good enough? With the benefit of hindsight, it appears California Chrome was beating a weak bunch of rivals in the Triple Crown. The second-place finishers in the Derby and Preakness have a combined 0-for-15 record in stakes competition.
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Chrome has run only once since the Belmont Stakes. Will he still be sharp? Can he contend? He’ll take a bunch of money, though it’s hard to conceive of any scenario where he hits the board.
Shared Belief, 9-5, Post 6
The likely winner, Shared Belief has posted the fasted Beyer of them all, a 115 in his blazing Pacific Classic. He’s undefeated and has the perfect running style and makeup to win the Classic.
In the Pacific Classic, two horses got into a speed duel, which allowed Shared Belief to coast along eight lengths behind. When they turned for home and he switched from his left to his right lead, he exploded by to win the 10-furlong test in two minutes and 1/5th seconds.
He’s training out of his skin, so the only question is this: Did the Awesome Again Stakes, where riders tried to take him out by swinging way wide, wear him down?
If he wins, he’ll be only the third Champion Three-Year-Old not to run in any of the Triple Crown races.
Writes Beyer, “if a handicapper is prepared (as I am) to eliminate California Chrome and Bayern, he is the almost inescapable choice to win Saturday.”
Predictions
5 of 5Well, this is it. Throw down three G's, and smoke a Benjamin because here's your meal ticket. Break out the Grey Goose, and let's forget the night.
1. Shared Belief
2. Moreno
3. Tonalist
4. Imperative
Here we have the heavy favorite—the unbeaten Shared Belief—getting an identical trip to the one he had in the Pacific Classic. Moreno is a speed ball who has finished second at 10 furlongs and has shown the ability to hang on.
Tonalist is like a vulture around the board, finishing no worse than third in his last seven starts. Imperative will play janitor and clean up the back end of this ticket.
When you speak of me, speak kindly.
All speed figures and odds come from purchased Daily Racing Form past performances.
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