Breeders' Cup Odds 2014: 10 Betting Tips from Handicapping Expert
While the Kentucky Derby is the most well-known horse race each year, the Breeders' Cup brings together the best horses, jockeys and trainers from throughout the world for 13 championship races and $26 million in purses up for grabs.
For horseplayers, it is the holy grail of betting. There will be over $160 million wagered over the two days and a seemingly endless number of wagering opportunities for the $2 bettor up to the high roller who goes after millions in the Ultra Pick Six and other exotic wagers.
Before heading to the betting window or firing up your online wagering account, here are a few betting tips from a horseplayer who has wagered on every single Breeders' Cup race since 1984.
Manage Your Wagering Bankroll
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Wagering on horse racing, and the Breeders' Cup in particular, can be a rush. It's not risking $110 to win $100 on an NFL game or dropping $20 in a football pool for the Super Bowl.
Wagering on horse racing is completely legal in almost every state in the U.S., and there are a ton of ways to wager and win.
This year's wagering menu on the 13 Breeders' Cup races features an abundance of wagering opportunities including two Ultra Pick Sixes, a low takeout 50-cent pick five, 10-cent superfectas, 50-cent trifectas, Pick Threes, Pick Fours and Pick Fives, a Breeders' Cup Distaff/Classic daily double and two Super High Five wagers.
It's important to plan your wagers and decide ahead of time which pools to jump into. Smaller players should stick with traditional bets like win, exactas and doubles.
If you like to take a swing for the fences and have a larger bankroll, there is nothing sweeter than taking down Saturday's Ultra Pick Six, which features a $2.5 million guaranteed pool.
Favorites Can Be Beaten
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There will be plenty of talk about the high-profile horses in the Breeders' Cup, like the undefeated Shared Belief, the 7-5 morning-line favorite for the Classic, and Goldencents, the defending champion in the Dirt Mile and the 6-5 morning-line favorite.
However, when the best horses from around the world get together, anything can happen. In the Dirt Mile, the last six betting favorites have finished out of the money, and the average payoff for the winner was $29.
In the Classic, the average payoff for a $2 wager is $28, and just one of the last eight winners has paid less than $10.
The Breeders' Cup is not for chalk players; wager accordingly.
Look for an Overseas Invasion
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They have crossed the pond and landed in Southern California. The European contingent numbers more than 30, with plenty that can go home with hardware and cash.
From the Turf, Mile and Filly & Mare Turf, to the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Juvenile Turf, expect the Euros to make their mark.
In the four runnings of the Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita, the home team has been blanked. Chriselliam won the Juvenile Fillies last year, and the overseas invaders will again be a factor.
Last year, Dank won the Filly & Mare Turf, and Magician won the Turf. The Euro runners this year look just as good. With Wise Dan out of the Mile, expect the Euros to take full advantage, with Toronado and Goldikova's little brother Anodin leading the charge.
In the turf races, the home team is up against it.
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Mike Smith Is Money
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Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith is one of the best money riders of all time and leads all riders in Breeders' Cup wins with 20. Along with his wins, he has nine runner-up finishes and six third-place finishes. He also has amassed purses that total $25,614,260.
As legendary trainer Bob Baffert said via Sports Illustrated's Tim Layden, "When you’re at one of those really big-money races, and you see Mike Smith coming over to the paddock with his silks on, you know you don’t have to tell him anything. He knows what to do.”
Fellow Hall of Fame jockeys John Velazquez with 12 and Gary Stevens with 10 are next in line in Breeders' Cup wins among active jockeys.
The 49-year-old Smith is best known for riding the great mare Zenyatta to wins in the Distaff in 2008 and the Classic against the boys in 2009.
Smith will be very busy over the two days of the Breeders' Cup, riding in nine of the 13 races, including getting a leg up on the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) Shared Belief.
The AARP may be calling, but Smith will be very busy this weekend.
Finding Key Prep Races Key to Profits
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Most winners of Breeders' Cup races are already accomplished in top-class company, and it is a good idea to know which races are key preps for the Breeders' Cup.
For the Classic, the key prep race is the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which is run at Belmont Park, producing seven winners of the marquee event of the Breeders' Cup. This year's race was won by Tonalist, who also won this spring's Belmont Stakes.
For the Distaff, the road also usually goes through New York, with the Beldame a key race. Belle Gallantey won this year's Beldame.
The Spinster has also been a key prep, and with Keeneland going back to conventional dirt this year, it should be considered an important prep. Close Hatches tossed in a dud, while Don't Tell Sophia got the job done.
Keeneland's Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes has produced five consecutive winners of the Filly & Mare Sprint.
Take a little time to review race charts and replays of the key Breeders' Cup races, and it could lead to padding the bankroll.
Speed Is King at Santa Anita
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Santa Anita installed a new dirt surface for the fall meeting, and while trainers and jockeys are raving about how safe it is, the surface has certainly been kind to horses that show early speed.
In six-furlong sprints, nearly 80 percent of the winners have been either on the lead or close to the lead at the first call. Thirty-nine percent have gone gate to wire.
In races at one mile on the main track, nearly half of the 17 races run have been won by horses going gate to wire. Horses on or near the lead have accounted for over 90 percent of the winners.
Last year at Santa Anita, the Friday card saw a strong inside-speed bias, while the track played fair Saturday. It is important to see how the track is playing early Friday to see if speed horses are going to have an advantage.
Clones Will Outdo Chromies
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The $5 million Classic is being billed as Clones vs. Chromies, with the Jim Rome-owned Shared Belief and Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome set to do battle.
Shared Belief missed the Triple Crown trail with foot issues, while California Chrome won the first two jewels, and then his bid for history was derailed with a fourth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes.
Shared Belief has come back with a vengeance, winning all four starts this year, including beating older foes in a pair of Grade 1 races.
A win in the Classic for either secures Horse of the Year honors. It looks as if at this time of year the Clones might have the better chance of cashing a ticket.
Look for Ward, Brown to Score Big
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Two very talented young trainers are worth tracking over the two-day championship meeting: Wesley Ward and Chad Brown.
Ward has been blanked with his 16 Breeders' Cup starters, but this year he may finally break through, sending out four very live runners.
On Friday, he sends out Hootenanny (3-1) in the Juvenile Turf and Sunset Glow (7-2) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. On Saturday, he will saddle Undrafted (8-1) and No Nay Never (9-2) in the Turf Sprint and Judy the Beauty (5-2) in the Filly & Mare Sprint.
Brown has won two Breeders' Cup races for 23 starters and will be very busy. He saddles four contenders in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, a pair in the Juvenile Turf, Bakken (10-1) in the Sprint, Bobby's Kitten (10-1) in the Turf Sprint, Dayatthespa (8-1) and Stephanie’s Kitten (3-1) in the Filly & Mare Turf and Zivo (15-1) in the Classic.
There is a pretty good chance both Ward and Brown will spend some time in the winner's circle.
Rome Has Best Shot of Racking a BC Win
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There are plenty of well-known owners at this year's Breeders' Cup who could be holding up hardware during the two-day championship event.
Among the owners of Breeders' Cup contenders are sports personality Jim Rome (Shared Belief), Ottawa Senators owner Eugene Melnyk (Leigh Court), World Cup soccer star Michael Owen (Brown Panther), Denver Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker (Undrafted) and University of Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino (Goldencents).
Of the celebs who will be walking the red carpet, Rome appears to have the best shot of heading to the winner's circle. The undefeated Shared Belief is the betting favorite for the $5 million Classic.
Three-Year-Olds Will Dominate Elders in Classic
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The older handicap division has been decimated by injuries and retirements, with last year's winner Mucho Macho Man on the sidelines, along with runner-up Will Take Charge, two-time beaten favorite Game On Dude and Palace Malice.
That leaves the three-year-old division with the likely top four or five betting choices for the $5 million Classic, led by the undefeated Shared Belief and Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome.
Only two of the last 13 editions of the Classic have been won by three-year-olds: Curlin in 2007 and Raven's Pass in 2008 at Santa Anita.
Betting odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport
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