Breeders' Cup 2014: Power Ranking the Horses in This Year's Classic Field

A full field of 14 horses is primed for a run at the 31st Breeders' Cup Classic. 

This field has it all. It's got every winner of a Triple Crown race: California Chrome (Kentucky Derby and Preakness) and Tonalist (Belmont Stakes). There's the Travers Stakes winner (V.E. Day) and a colt who beat Game On Dude this year (Shared Belief).

The $5 million Classic puts the cash in cache.

This is one of the more competitive fields in recent memory. It's not fill-in-the-blank's race to lose. This is wide open and the divisional honors are on the line. Champion Three-Year-Old, Champion Older Horse and Horse of the Year are the 15th, 16th and 17th entrants in the Classic this year.

I've power ranked these horses using mainly the eyeball test (since I don't have speed figures yet). I watched many replays and weighed their performances and how they raced against one another. I also factored in running style and how that could affect this race and, thus, their standing in it.

Read on to see how the 14 horses rank.

14. Cigar Street

Morning-Line Odds: 12-1

Post Position: Two

This is a confusing 12-1 horse. His win in the ungraded Homecoming Stakes at Churchill Downs wasn't eye-popping. He's lightly raced this year, so he has that going for him. The Classic will be his third start of 2014. 

Maybe what makes him an underlay on the morning line is his trainer. Bill Mott won this race with Cigar and he won it most recently with Drosselmeyer in 2011. You can already hear race caller Larry Collmus drawing the Cigar parallel.

Here's what Breeder Cup.com says about Cigar Street: "To say Cigar Street has an outside shot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic would be a rather appropriate choice of words."

Exactly.

13. Candy Boy

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Post Position: 12

Candy Boy hasn't won a race since February 8, when he rated perfectly in the Robert B. Lewis and clipped Chitu at the wire. It was a great tactical win.

Since then he's been a nice, solid horse. He runs hard and hits the board. He finished third, second and second in his last three races, all Grade 2s. He finished 13th in the Kentucky Derby, a race where he had several excuses.

John Sadler, Candy Boy's trainer, said on Breeders' Cup.com: "He's got one placing ahead of California Chrome in the Pennsylvania Derby and he was second to Shared Belief in the Los Alamitos Derby (gr. 2). His form is his form. He's been good and steady. He hasn't shown that he's the best 3-year-old, but he's in the upper group."

12. Imperative

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Post Position: Three

Imperative, like many of the horses on this list, belongs.

He was last of them all after the first call in the Pacific Classic and closed strong to finish third. He was a disappointing fifth in his last race, the Awesome Again Stakes, so it's unclear how this horse will perform. Can he bounce back or will he flatten out? 

He's hard to back, as there are just so many other horses more capable of winning this race.

11. Toast of New York

Morning-Line Odds: 12-1

Post Position: Nine

Toast of New York's greatest achievement was winning the Group 2 UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai.

He's a long way from the Middle East. The Classic will mark just his third start on U.S. soil. His first was in the Belmont Derby on the turf back in June. He followed that up with a game second to Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic.

There will be a lot of speed for him to track, but he's also going to have a lot of company turning for home. It's tough to tell if the best is yet to come for this New York-themed colt.

10. Footbridge

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Post Position: 10

There's something to like about Footbridge. He finished third, second and second in his last three efforts. He's one of those horses that competes every time out. 

In eight starts, he's finished no worse than fifth in 2014. After he graduated to graded-stakes company, he hasn't finished worse than third.

Footbridge had a dream trip in the Awesome Again Stakes and still couldn't keep pace with a wide-tracking Shared Belief. That doesn't mean Footbridge can't move forward, but it does appear he's a notch below the best in this field.

9. V.E. Day

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Post Position: Five

V.E. Day is another closer in this field. He flew down the homestretch to catch stablemate Wicked Strong in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga. It was a major win and he took a decided step backward in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, finishing fifth in his first try against older horses.

Racing manager Cynthia Curtis said in The Blood-Horse:

"

After the Gold Cup, [trainer] Jimmy [Jerkens] and I obviously were a little disappointed, but we've been watching the replays and the horse didn't have the greatest trip and was very wide the whole race. He still finished in midpack and wasn't beaten that far. So all things considered, he didn't run all that badly, he's been competitive with these horses, and he's been training very well.

"

If there's pace in this race—and there will be—V.E. Day will make some noise down the center of the track when they turn for home.

8. Majestic Harbor

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Post Position: 14

Majestic Harbor has had the unfortunate circumstance of running into Shared Belief in his last two starts, finishing fourth and sixth respectively.

You'd have to go back to The Gold Cup at Santa Anita to be the slightest bit wowed by him. That day, he defeated Game On Dude and covered the 1 1/4 miles in 2:01.53. Not bad, but by Santa Anita standards that doesn't exactly light the track ablaze.

Post 14 doesn't help this horse at all.

7. Moreno

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Post Position: 4

Seeing Moreno at 20-1 is awfully tempting, and he could make somebody upgrade from Taco Bell to Chipotle come Saturday night.

Eric Guillot, Moreno's trainer, says his horse is sharp heading into the Classic: "I had the filly press him, but she could only keep up for three-eighths. (The rider) said as soon as the filly got to his flank he popped his head up like he always does and started gradually inching away. By the time he reached the wire he was 20 lengths in front of her. It was like breakin' sticks."

He won't be alone on the front end. Bayern will go with him and may even be in front. But Moreno does have front-running Classic blood. His sire, Ghostzapper, won this race in 2004, nearly 10 years to the day (Ghostzapper won on Halloween. How cool is that?). 

Moreno got in a tangle and nearly killed Rajiv Maragh in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in September, so if you draw a line through that, Moreno could be dangerous.

6. Bayern

Morning-Line Odds: 6-1

Post Position: Seven

Bayern will make a lot of hay as being the "fastest" horse in this field. He'll also take a lot of dough, and that's a good thing for you, fellow horse player. 

This horse is bottled murder at nine furlongs, but that extra furlong buries many talented horses, as it did in the Travers. Bayern had the lead all to himself and still couldn't manage any run. He finished last that day.

Moreno, the resident speed ball of the older horses, will do everything in his power to keep Bayern company. 

Bayern flattened out like road kill at Saratoga and was essentially by himself. He could very well be lower on this list, but his sheer talent keeps him high on the power rankings.

5. Prayer for Relief

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Post Position: 1

Prayer for Relief is a stretch runner who will benefit from the fast pace and the inside post. All Irad Ortiz, Prayer's jockey, must do is fall out and keep him from getting smeared like jelly on the fence.

This horse finished a nice third in the Woodward, a nice fourth in the Whitney and a nice third in the Suburban. He could get up for a piece of this Classic pie, but he's far from a winner. 

Unless the race completely melts down, his best effort will put him around fourth place.

4. California Chrome

Morning-Line Odds: 4-1

Post Position: 13

Pop quiz, hot shot: Who was the last Derby winner to win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Unbridled in 1990. Only two three-year-olds who won the Derby have won the Classic in the same year: Unbridled and Sunday Silence (1989). 

Not good news for Chromie.

The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner ran with the proverbial target on his back in the Grade 1 $1 million Pennsylvania Derby in September. This is a horse that loves to get outside of horses and he failed to do that. As a result, he folded like a paper football.

Maybe that was jockey error, maybe not. In the Classic, he gets to break from the far outside with all the speed to his left. His trainer, Art Sherman, thinks he's sitting on a big effort.

"Every time your horse throws a little bit of a clunker you get a little bit concerned," Sherman told USA Today. "You hate to cry wolf, but you haven't seen the Chrome that I know."

Chrome's not the winner, but he's lightly raced since finishing in a dead-heat for fourth in the Belmont Stakes. That gives him an edge in terms of rest compared to the other three-year-olds in this field. Given that, he'll be traveling far from that post, and if he's hung wide, he won't have the kick to get any higher than fourth.

3. Zivo

Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

Post Position: Eight

Zivo has one move: run late. In the above race replay—the Grade 1 Woodward won by Itsmyluckyday—Zivo closes from the clouds to finish fourth. Fourth doesn't sound great, but it's better than it looks.

He split horses down the stretch and was one of the faster moving horses closing into a pedestrian pace. Horses with Zivo's running style have a hard time winning when the quarter-mile and half-mile fractions go in 24 and 47. He needs a 22 and 45 to be a big threat.

With Bayern, Moreno and maybe Candy Boy, Zivo will have the pace he needs to threaten the leaders and hit the board.

2. Tonalist

Morning-Line Odds: 5-1

Post Position: 11

Tonalist won the Belmont Stakes at 12 furlongs and the Jockey Club Gold Cub at 10 furlongs, so this horse knows a thing or two about getting the distance. 

When it appeared Zivo had a clear shot at the lead in the JCGC, Tonalist split horses and streaked for the front. It was a classy move in traffic that proved Tonalist has the mettle to run hard through tiring horses.

There will be lightning on the front ends, so horses with a great kick have the advantage in this year's renewal of the Classic. Tonalist has shown some inconsistencies this year, so he's hard to buy as a winner, but he's definitely going to hit the board.

1. Shared Belief

Morning-Line Odds: 9-5

Post Position: Six

Shared Belief, last year's champion two-year-old, didn't run through the rigors of this year's Triple Crown. He developed a quarter crack and was taken off the trail. That may have been the greatest blessing for this undefeated colt.

His most impressive win was the Grade 1 Pacific Classic, where he sat back in the middle of the pack while fan-favorite Game On Dude punished the front end. With three-eighths of a mile to go, Shared Belief uncorked that giant stride and peeled the skin off the leaders, covering the 10 furlongs in 2:00.28.

That, my friends, is Halloween-scary fast.

He likes to be outside horses and will have trouble getting clear from Post 6, but his jockey Mike Smith has won this race three times with Skip Away, Drosselmeyer and Zenyatta. Shared Belief is the most versatile horse in the field and could make a clean sweep of Champion Three-Year-Old and Horse of the Year with a win here.

All race stats and finishes came from Equibase.com. The morning-line odds came from Santa Anita. They were written after Monday's post draw.