Breeders' Cup Favorites: The Biggest Flaw for Top Contenders at Santa Anita

After months of anticipation, the Breeders' Cup is almost here. At this point, official entries, courtesy of Daily Racing Form, are out and final workouts have been recorded. The only thing left to do is handicap the big races.

With a rich history dating back to the inaugural running in 1984, the Breeders' Cup has been the host of some of the most thrilling and memorable moments in horse racing. However, one trend has proven true year after year—no horse, no matter how great, is unbeatable.

Read on for a look at the favorites in this year's Breeders' Cup and find out why they may not be invincible come race day. 

Juvenile Turf: Hootenanny

Charlie Crowhurst/Getty Images

Odds: 3-1

Biggest Flaw: Distance limitations

Though it is difficult to find fault with his past performances, Hootenanny does have one major obstacle to overcome. Though the globe-trotting 2-year-old has won on two different surfaces in two separate countries, he is untested around two-turns.

He does have stamina in his pedigree coming from his sire, Quality Road, but he also has a good deal of sprint influence in his female family. In his last start, the Group 1 Prix Morny in France, he wound up settling for second after contesting the lead and appearing to get tired in the stretch. That race was only six furlongs, and he will have to go an additional two furlongs to win the Juvenile Turf. 

Dirt Mile: Goldencents

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Odds: 6-5

Biggest Flaw: Facing a tougher field than last year

Goldencents is the reigning Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile champion, and while he was essentially handed the race on a speed-favoring track last year, he has proven to be a legitimate, hard-knocking competitor. Though he has only one win from four starts this year, he has been in good form and training forwardly to defend his title.

However, he will have to contend with some up-and-coming horses as Tapiture and Vicar's in Trouble, two accomplished 3-year-olds, are making their first try against older horses and loom as legitimate threats. That being said, Goldencents may be the strongest favorite of the day. 

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Sunset Glow

Odds: 7-2

Biggest Flaw: More accomplished on synthetics

There is no denying Sunset Glow is a very talented filly. Like her stablemate and Juvenile Turf favorite Hootenanny, the 2-year-old filly is well-traveled from only five starts. She has won on both the East and West coasts and took a brief tour of Great Britain in between with a good runner-up finish at Royal Ascot.

While she has not yet gone a mile, she does not appear to have any distance limitations. However, her last two races, including a game victory in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante Stakes, both came on synthetic surfaces. Though she has won on turf, she has yet to prove that she can win against Grade 1-caliber competition on the lawn. 

Distaff: Untapable

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Odds: 5-2

Biggest Flaw: Unproven against older horses

Untapable has done very little wrong this year. With the exception of the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational in which she took on male rivals and struggled, she is perfect against fillies this year from five starts. That being said, she has been knocking heads with an arguably weak crop of sophomore fillies and will face a tougher task battling Close Hatches here.

Aside from Haskell, her only other blemish in her career came last year at Santa Anita in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. It poses a question: Was it the medication ban for juveniles that compromised her chances (she has run with Lasix in all of her other starts) or is she simply not as effective at Santa Anita?

Juvenile Fillies: Angela Renee

Odds: 3-1

Biggest Flaw: Average worktab

Angela Renee looks like a formidable favorite and has one major advantage over several rivals in this race—she is proven at Santa Anita at the Juvenile Fillies distance of 1 1/16 miles. Her win in the Grade 1 Chandelier Stakes was a sharp performance.

However, it begs the question of whether she peaked at that race. Since that effort, her worktab at Santa Anita has been average at best. She does not have the most consistent race record and may have taken a step backward off of that big victory. 

Filly & Mare Turf: Dank (GB)

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Odds: 5-2

Biggest Flaw: Unraced since June, may have lost a step

There is a lot to like about Dank (GB). In a race where international runners tend to dominate, she figures to be a top contender as she tries to replicate her winning effort from last year in the Filly & Mare Turf. She has proven she can handle the firm turf course at Santa Anita, but at this point, she does not appear to be the same horse she was last year.

Going into the Filly & Mare Turf last year, she had a strong United States prep in the Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes and at that point had won three times that year. This year, she has only hit the board once from two starts. Now, she's coming into a tough test in the Filly & Mare Turf off of a four-month break. 

Filly & Mare Sprint: Judy the Beauty

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Odds: 5-2

Biggest Flaw: May have needed a prep race

Judy the Beauty figures to be one of the strongest favorites on the Breeders' Cup card. Last year, she was a game second to the brilliant Groupie Doll, and without that rival to contend with, she should be very tough.

However, she did take a different trajectory to the Breeders' Cup this year. Last year, she had a winning prep at Keeneland in October, which seemed to set her up perfectly for a big effort just about a month later. This year, she has been on the shelf since winning at Del Mar in August, and though her worktab is strong, she may need a race. 

Turf Sprint: No Nay Never

Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images

Odds: 9-2

Biggest Flaw: Unproven on downhill turf, unfavorable post

In a surprising move, No Nay Never was named the morning-line favorite, which is further evidence that the Turf Sprint may be one of the most wide-open and contentious races on the card. There is no doubt that this 3-year-old colt is brilliantly talented, but he does have some major question marks here.

The Santa Anita downhill turf course is a tricky, unique surface. Some horses simply need a race over it to be at their best. No Nay Never, while well-traveled and accomplished, has never run over it. In addition, drawing the outside post is not an advantage for a horse with his kind of early speed. Though talented, he has gotten unlucky and is up against it here. 

Juvenile: Daredevil

Odds: 7-2

Biggest Flaw: Has never won on a fast track

The landscape of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile changed in a major way on Tuesday morning. Claire Novak of The Blood-Horse reported that the formidable favorite, American Pharoah, would have to sit out the race with an injury. Daredevil, the undefeated son of More than Ready, inherited the favoritism for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Though Daredevil is a perfect two-for-two, he will find Santa Anita's main track considerably different than what he has won over from two starts to date. Both winning efforts came over wet tracks at Belmont Park, and at this point he has not proven he can be as brilliant on a fast track. 

Turf: Flintshire (GB)

Thibault Camus/Associated Press

Odds: 7-2

Biggest Flaw: Quick turnaround

Flintshire (GB) has been knocking heads with the best that Europe has to offer. Reading through his past performances is essentially a who's who of the international racing scene with names like Treve, Cirrus des Aigles and Ruler of the World. He was last seen running second in the prestigious Prix de l'Arc de Grade 1 Triomphe to the superstar filly Treve.

That race was less than a month ago on Oct. 5. So, in the span of less than a month, he will be traveling from France to California and competing in one of the biggest races of his career. Even for a very talented horse, which he is, that is asking a lot. 

Sprint: Secret Circle

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Odds: 9-2

Biggest Flaw: Not the same horse as last year

With Secret Circle, the question is never whether this horse can perform off of a limited recent record. Last year, in a masterful training job by Bob Baffert, the brilliant sprinter won the Sprint with only an optional claiming victory to his credit that year after being on the shelf for over a year.

This year, however, he just does not seem to be as sharp. He has had two races this year, one in February and one in October, and he has not shown the same kick that had made him so dangerous in previous seasons. He is still a legitimate threat, but his best days seem behind him. 

Mile: Toronado (IRE)

Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images

Odds: 5-2

Biggest Flaw: Unproven at Santa Anita 

When two-time defending champion Wise Dan went to the sidelines, the Breeders' Cup Mile became a much more interesting and competitive race. Toronado (IRE), a highly regarded multiple Group 1 winner, looms as the favorite in a race where European runners have a history of dominance.

He will have to perform over a much different surface than he is accustomed to running over. The turf course at Santa Anita is a very firm, hard course, whereas in Europe, he often ran over much softer surfaces. He did catch a firm course in the Grade 1 Prix du Moulin in France and ran well to finish second, but for the most part he has performed better on softer surfaces. 

Classic: Shared Belief

Ringo H.W. Chiu/Associated Press

Odds: 9-5

Biggest Flaw: Unproven against top caliber horses

Shared Belief showed his class in the Grade 1 Awesome Again. He was able to prove that he can win over the Santa Anita main track, overcome a bad trip and still prevail. It was a strong gut check for the talented gelding, and he emerged undefeated, a perfect seven-for-seven.

He was all out to defeat Fed Biz, a talented but inconsistent horse who is better suited to a mile and will compete in the Dirt Mile. He also beat Footbridge, who has more pedigree than he does actual accomplishments. He is facing a legitimate Grade 1 field here and will take on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome, Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist and the brilliantly fast Bayern. 

On Saturday, we will see how special Shared Belief may be.