Breeders' Cup Post Positions 2014: Odds and Predictions for Every Horse
The $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is the marquee event of the two-day championship event held at Santa Anita on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1. The winner will not only pick up a huge paycheck, but a victory will likely mean Horse of the Year honors.
A field of 15 was entered, but only 14 will start, with the undefeated Shared Belief likely to go off as the short-priced favorite.
The race will be televised live on NBC at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 1.
Let’s take a look at the post positions, betting odds and predictions for each horse, in post position order.
1. Prayer for Relief, 30-1
1 of 15Trained by Dale Romans, this six-year-old has not seen the winner's circle since taking the Tenacious Handicap at Fair Grounds last December. He comes into the Classic on an eight-race losing streak.
He did outrun his odds last time out when he finished third in the Woodward (G1) at Saratoga; he was beaten two lengths for the top spot by Itsmyluckyday and finished 1 1/2 lengths behind the runner-up, Moreno. Winless in eight starts this year, he is going to be a big price in the Classic and a real outsider.
Prediction: It’s tough to find a reason to think this horse might be in the hunt when they turn for home in the Classic. His trainer has won three Breeders’ Cup races, all on turf. Even a long prayer will not help this runner land in the money.
2. Cigar Street, 20-1
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The lightly raced Cigar Street has won five of his eight career starts, with an injury knocking him off the race track for more than a year. He came back at Saratoga with a good second against optional claimers and then was a good-looking winner of the Homecoming Stakes at Churchill Downs.
He is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who won the Classic with Drosselmeyer in 2011 and Cigar in 1995. The five-year-old has just one graded stakes win, taking the 2013 Skip Away (G3) at Gulfstream Park.
“He's coming off a good race at Churchill Downs, and, you know, he was a horse that has always been well thought of,” Mott said during the NTRA teleconference on Oct. 22. “I mean he's a big, strong horse with plenty of talent, and, you know, looks like he should get the 10-furlong distance.”
Prediction: With his connections and upside, he may be worth a good look and may end up one of the “wise guy” horses, possibly taking some late betting action. He has good tactical speed and should get a good trip while sitting in the second flight just off what is expected to be a fast pace. He may even have the lead heading for home but will have to hold off a good group of runners that are far more accomplished.
3. Imperative, 30-1
3 of 15The gelding ran huge, winning the Charles Town Classic (G2) back in April. He beat Game On Dude and Moreno, pulling off the upset at 26-1.
The gelding has made four starts since, and the best he could muster were third-place finishes in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) and the Pacific Classic (G1). He was soundly beaten by Shared Belief in his last two starts, most recently by 6 1/4 lengths in the Awesome Again (G1) over the Santa Anita main track.
Trainer George Papaprodromou made a shrewd acquisition when he took this horse at the claim box for $50,000 last December, as he has earned better than $1.2 million this year.
Prediction: It would be a surprise to see a horse that once ran for a $40,000 claiming tag win the richest race in the U.S. It looks like the competition is too tough for him.
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4. Moreno, 25-1
4 of 15Trainer Eric Guillot is pulling out all the stops, hoping that Moreno will improve over his 10th-place finish in last year’s Classic. He even installed voodoo dolls in his barn office, hoping to put a hex on the major contenders for the race.
The gelding has only won one of seven starts this year, taking the Whitney Handicap (G1) at Saratoga in August in gate-to-wire fashion. He may not get the lead here, as Bayern looks like he is a bit quicker.
Prediction: The gelding figures to battle with Bayern in the early going, and he does his best when he can control the early pace. It could be a similar fate as last year, when he dueled for the early lead and faded in the stretch.
5. V.E. Day, 20-1
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The upset winner of the Travers (G1) at Saratoga at 19-1, the colt had a troubled trip in a sixth-place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in his final prep for the Classic.
Along with Shared Belief, the colt is the most lightly raced in the field with just seven career starts, and three of those were on turf. Things set up well for him in the Travers, and it may again in the Classic, but he still has not run fast enough to win this race.
Prediction: He is going to need a pace meltdown for his late kick to be effective, and he would have to run a career best to be in the hunt. He likely is not good enough to grab a major share against this group.
6. Shared Belief, 7-5
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Last year’s two-year-old champion missed the Triple Crown trail with foot issues but has taken command of the three-year-old division with his wins against older in the Awesome Again (G1) and Pacific Classic (G1). A victory in the Classic would wrap up Horse of the Year honors, which would have been hard to imagine moments before they sprung the gate for the Belmont Stakes (G1) back in June.
Perfect in seven starts in his career, the colt had things his own way in his first six starts and got tested last time out, winning the Awesome Again (G1) by just a neck.
It was a harder prep than the connections may have wanted, but it should have him battle-tested for Saturday. It sure does not hurt to have all-time leading Breeders’ Cup jockey Mike Smith aboard.
Prediction: The colt looks as if he is going to be very tough in the Classic and the deserving favorite. He should be sitting mid-pack and will get an honest early pace to run at. His post position seems perfect for him. The main knock on him is how much value he is going to offer at such a short price.
7. Bayern, 13-2
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The speedy Bayern is coming off a gate-to-wire score in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) at Parx Racing, leaving California Chrome 7 1/4 lengths back in sixth. The colt’s best effort this year among his five wins came in the Haskell Invitational (G1) at Monmouth Park, where he drew off to win by 7 1/4 lengths.
The colt figures to be right in the mix early, but there is a question as to whether he can handle the 1 1/4-mile distance. His trainer is Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who saddled the beaten favorite Game On Dude in the last two editions of the Classic.
Baffert has won 10 Breeders’ Cup races but has been blanked in the Classic.
Prediction: The colt is able to get to the front hounded by Moreno and fades in the stretch.
8. Zivo, 15-1
8 of 15While the three-year-olds in the race are getting most of the attention, Zivo may be worth a good look off a solid runner-up finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in his last outing behind Tonalist.
The colt is in good hands with the Chad Brown barn that has won two Breeders’ Cup races with 23 starters; both were turf winners. Brown is having a solid 2014; he's second in the trainer standings at Saratoga and first at the recently concluded Belmont Park meeting.
Zivo won the Suburban Handicap (G2) back in July at 1 1/4 miles, which was his sixth victory in a row. He found Grade 1 company too tough in his last two starts, though, but don’t count this guy out.
Prediction: With Game On Dude, Mucho Macho Man and Palace Malice out of the picture, the older division is weak, but this guy might be the best of those still standing. He has a realistic shot of landing in the exacta at a generous price.
9. Toast of New York, 12-1
9 of 15This colt will be making his first start on conventional dirt, having raced only on grass and synthetic surfaces in his seven-race career. Five of those starts came overseas.
He made his U.S. debut in the Belmont Derby (G1) on turf and was a disappointing sixth. He came back with a solid effort over polytrack in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar, getting beaten 2 3/4 lengths by Shared Belief.
Prediction: This is perhaps the trickiest read in the Classic field, since he hasn't raced on dirt. Jockey Jamie Spencer is not exactly a favorite among U.S. bettors and is 0-of-12 in the Breeders’ Cup. If he goes off around 10-1 to 12-1 as expected, he should be put on exotic tickets. If he runs back to his effort on poly on dirt, he could be in the hunt.
10. Footbridge, 20-1
10 of 15Trained by former Bob Baffert assistant Eoin Harty, this colt is without a stakes win and is going to be one of the long shots in the field. His last effort was his best, a third-place finish in the Awesome Again (G1), where he was beaten 2 1/2 lengths by Shared Belief.
The colt has run well over the Santa Anita main track, landing in the money in seven of his eight starts, but he gets a real class test taking on this group in the Classic.
Prediction: Even a home-field advantage is not going to help this colt, who just looks overmatched. He would be a big surprise if he managed a finish in the top four.
11. Tonalist, 11-2
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Tardy to the Triple Crown trail, the late-developing colt won the Belmont Stakes (G1). After coming up short in the Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers (G1), he looks to be back on track after an impressive victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), a race that has produced seven Classic winners.
His trainer, Christophe Clement, is one of the most respected conditioners in the game and known more for his prowess with turf runners. Clement is long overdue for his first Breeders’ Cup victory, coming into this year with a 0-of-23 record. He trained Gio Ponti, who was second to Zenyatta in the 2009 Classic.
Prediction: This colt has a serious chance of winning and is proven at the 1 1/4-mile distance. He has landed in the exacta in six of his eight career starts and may still have some upside. The colt will be coming late and will likely be among the top three at the wire.
12. Candy Boy, 25-1
12 of 15A winner of just one of his last seven starts, the John Sadler trainee figures to be a generous price. The colt was 13th in the Run for the Roses, a dozen lengths behind the winner, and then was beaten 4 1/4 lengths by Shared Belief in the Los Alamitos Derby (G2).
The colt was beaten just a nose in the West Virginia Derby (G2) and in his final prep made a mild late rally to finish third in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2), 5 3/4 lengths behind the gate-to-wire winner.
Prediction: The colt does have the pedigree to handle the extra ground of the Classic and is going to be a hefty price. Sadler has a 0-of-31 record in the Breeders’ Cup, but he is a well-respected trainer on the Southern California circuit. With the big price, this is a colt that should be used in the exotics; he has a shot of landing in the money.
13. California Chrome, 7-1
13 of 15Which California Chrome is going to show up at Santa Anita on Saturday? The colt that swept three straight Grade 1 races, the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness? Or the colt that did not have enough punch in a fourth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes and then a disappointing sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby?
Trainer Art Sherman explained his last outing in the NTRA teleconference, stating, “He had no chance. They had him in the pocket for three-quarters of a mile, and he couldn't get out. I don't blame the jockeys for putting him in that position. I don’t blame anybody else; it was just a bad race.”
The Derby winner has won three of his four starts over the Santa Anita main track and has put in several solid works for his second start off a three-and-half-month break, getting the summer off after his tough Triple Crown campaign.
Prediction: His last outing is not exactly encouraging, and he faces his toughest test to date, his first start against older runners. Toss in the fact he likely is going to get plenty of attention at the betting windows, and he could end up being an underlay. He's a minor share at best.
14. Majestic Harbor, 30-1
14 of 15While the price may be generous on this six-year-old, he ran fast enough to win the Classic when he pulled off the upset in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) at odds of 14-1. It was a career top effort that he has not come close to duplicating in his last two starts.
He was sixth in the Pacific Classic (G1) and then fourth in the Awesome Again (G1). He was not much of a threat to the Classic favorite in either trip, getting beaten by a combined 13 1/4 lengths.
Prediction: His late running style may work well for him as he should get a solid early pace to run at, but except for his win in the Gold Cup, the other six starts this year were ordinary. It seems doubtful he will be able to crack the top four.
15. Big Cazanova, 40-1
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The pacesetter in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), the five-year-old faded to finish eighth and was placed seventh via a disqualification of Moreno. He will need a scratch to get into the field as he is on the outside looking in.
If he does get in, he has not run a race competitively enough to be in the mix here.
Prediction: I am hoping he does not get in, because that would mean one of the 14 in the field came down sick or with an injury. If there is a scratch, and he makes it into the field, he will not be a factor.
Odds provided by OddsShark.com.
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