Breeders' Cup Predictions 2014: Sleepers to Watch at Santa Anita
The Breeders' Cup is a daunting event to handicap. With 13 different races that attract horses from all over the world to compete at myriad distances over turf or dirt, the possibilities are endless.
All it takes is one long shot, and you can have, in addition to a lucrative payout, bragging rights all year. With several high-profile names poised to descend on Santa Anita, including returning Sprint champion Secret Circle and the undefeated Shared Belief, several horses with upset potential could offer some real value.
Read on for a look at some horses that are flying under the radar with the chance to pull off the upset at the Breeders' Cup.
Juvenile Turf: Commemorative (GB)
1 of 9
Friday, October 31, 5:25 p.m. ET
Why He Isn't a Favorite: The race is loaded top to bottom with world-class talent. With only three races, he has not done anything impressive enough—yet—to warrant being a favorite and could get seriously overlooked.
What Makes Him Dangerous: He has won two of his three races and has displayed a sharp, controlling cruising speed that should make him lethal over Santa Anita's turf course. He has yet to run over a truly firm course, and with his running style, the hard and fast course may further help his chances.
Prediction: He is getting a huge test but could be a big gate-to-wire threat. If he takes to the course and gets the lead, he could win.
Juvenile Fillies Turf: Lady Zuzu
2 of 9
Friday, October 31, 6:50 p.m. ET
Why She Isn't a Favorite: She has yet to prove she can be competitive against stakes company. Her lone effort against top company came two starts back when she was still a maiden. Though she ran poorly, she does seem better suited to the turf, but her form is questionable.
What Makes Her Dangerous: D. Wayne Lukas is always dangerous on a big day. Have we learned nothing from Oxbow's upset win in the Preakness in 2013? Lukas is a master on a big day, and this filly is a half-sister to stakes horse Optimizer, who also found a new life switching to turf.
Prediction: She is getting a huge test here, but her maiden win was impressive under apprentice jockey Juan Saez, who was tragically killed in a racing accident earlier in the month. If she wins, and she has a chance to, expect a tribute to the talented young rider.
Distaff: Tiz Midnight
3 of 9
Friday, October 31, 7:35 p.m. ET
Why She Isn't a Favorite: The four-year-old filly burst onto the graded stakes scene in the Zenyatta (G1) at Santa Anita in her last start. Prior to that, she had been relatively unknown despite three consecutive wins against lesser company. The Distaff is an ambitious spot for a horse who has not won a stakes race, and her morning workouts have not been impressive.
What Makes Her Dangerous: She did not embarrass herself by any means last time out and ran well to finish second behind Beholder, the defending Distaff champion. Had Beholder not been sidelined with an illness, she would have been the heavy favorite in this race, and you can always judge horses by the company they have been keeping.
Prediction: I would not be too put off by the lackluster morning workouts. She seems like a big, physically immature filly who is a little lazy in the morning. Come time for the race, she could be much sharper.
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Filly and Mare Turf: Emollient
4 of 9
Saturday, November 1, 3:43 p.m. ET
Why She Isn't a Favorite: At first glance, her racing record leaves something to be desired. She has been an all-or-nothing sort of filly for much of her career, hinting at real talent but often failing to deliver.
What Makes Her Dangerous: She got a major equipment change last time out when Bill Mott added blinkers, and it appeared to make a huge difference. She rolled to victory impressively in the Rodeo Drive (G1) and now has shown that she can win against Grade 1 company on the turf at Santa Anita.
Prediction: She finished fourth, beaten only by a length, in the 2013 Filly and Mare Turf. It would be a surprise if she does not improve on that and hit the board.
Turf Sprint: No Nay Never
5 of 9
Saturday, November 1, 5:05 p.m. ET
Why He Isn't a Favorite: The popular filly Reneesgotzip has been third and second in this race for the past two years, and by all accounts it is her race to lose. No Nay Never, despite an intriguing, international record, is unproven over the unique downhill turf at Santa Anita, and the powerhouse filly has a home-track advantage.
What Makes Him Dangerous: While he has never won at Santa Anita, this lightly raced colt has won races at three different race tracks in three separate countries. He has won on turf and synthetics and finished second on conventional dirt. This does not seem like a horse who will have trouble with any sort of surface.
Prediction: This one could really surprise and be a contender for the win. He seems logical to finish in the top three based on his consistent record.
Juvenile: The Great War
6 of 9
Saturday, November 1, 5:43 p.m. ET
Why He Isn't a Favorite: Though he has three wins, the $1 million purchase has never run on dirt, making the surface a huge question mark. In addition, he has not been consistent and is untested around two turns.
What Makes Him Dangerous: This would not be the first time Aiden O'Brien sent over a horse with exclusively turf form to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In 2012, the undefeated Johannesburg shipped to the United States and remained perfect for the same connections that will send out The Great War. His pedigree screams dirt, and he stands to move up significantly on the surface switch.
Prediction: Not only is he a top contender for the win, but he looks like a horse to beat in the 2015 Kentucky Derby. Watch this one.
Sprint: Indianapolis
7 of 9
Saturday, November 1, 7:01 p.m. EST
Why He Isn't a Favorite: Indianapolis is the other Bob Baffert horse in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Overshadowed by his stablemate and winner of the 2013 edition, Secret Circle, the sophomore colt also seriously lacks on experience. He is a perfect 3-of-3, but has yet to win a graded stakes or prove he can be competitive against top-class company.
What Makes Him Dangerous: Though he has yet to prove he can keep up against a top-caliber horse in a race, he did illustrate on October 20 that he can hold his own against the likely Sprint favorite, Secret Circle. The two barn mates worked in company for Bob Baffert, and Indianapolis impressed with a six-furlong bullet in 1:10.40.
Prediction: Two of his three wins have come at Santa Anita, and though he is short on experience, he has no shortage of talent. He will finish in the top three and do better than Secret Circle.
Mile: Obviously
8 of 9Saturday, November 1, 7:40 p.m. ET
Why He Isn't a Favorite: Despite the fact that he has home-track advantage, the brilliantly fast California-based horse has struggled in the Breeders' Cup Mile for the past two years. This race attracts a tougher group than he routinely catches.
What Makes Him Dangerous: There is one key difference in this year's Mile: Two-time reigning champion Wise Dan has been sidelined with an injury, making the task slightly easier for Obviously to carry his speed gate to wire.
Prediction: Maybe the third time is the charm? The hard-knocking, competitive veteran does deserve his chance in the spotlight, but he will need to run the race of his life. He is going to be an all-or-nothing horse here. Either he wins or is off the board.
Classic: California Chrome
9 of 9
Saturday, November 1, 8:35 p.m. ET
Why He Isn't a Favorite: California Chrome began the year as the darling of racing. After winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the flashy chestnut looked poised to make history in the Triple Crown. Fate was not on his side, however, and his subsequent effort in the Pennsylvania Derby was lackluster at best. There are questions about whether or not his best racing days are behind him for the year.
What Makes Him Dangerous: There is no question that this colt likes Santa Anita and has won three of his four starts there. His workouts have gotten better since his trip to Pennsylvania, and he appears to be returning to the form he showed in the spring.
Prediction: With a running style so similar to favorite Shared Belief, it will be a cat-and-mouse game of who moves sooner between jockeys Mike Smith and Victor Espinoza. If Espinoza gets the jump, California Chrome could redeem himself and hit the board.
Unless otherwise noted, all quotes and information were received firsthand.
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