12 November Games with Biggest Playoff Implications
Contenders remember, dream seasons depend on November.
Now that the top teams in college football have some clarity, compliments of the first College Football Playoff standings, it's possible to start looking ahead to the finish line and gauge each team's chance of getting into the semifinals. But a lot can happen before any postseason berths are awarded, and much of that will go down in the coming month.
The five weekends in November are jam-packed with impactful matches that can make or break a contender's season. Here are the 12 most notable matchups as far as playoff and major bowl implications go, listed chronologically from this Saturday through Nov. 29.
No. 3 Auburn at No. 4 Ole Miss
1 of 12
When: Saturday, Nov. 1
The first day of November also gives us our first major playoff-affecting game, thanks to the fact that two teams who would be in the semifinals (enter obligatory if they began today phrasing) square off right away.
"Saturday is in essence an elimination game for Auburn and Ole Miss—unless things get really crazy later," wrote Duane Rankin of the Montgomery Advertiser.
The entire month is full of big games for both Auburn and Ole Miss, but this game is far more important for the host Rebels because a second straight loss might be too much for them to overcome in the eyes of the playoff selection committee. Ole Miss' only remaining resume-building game after this is the Egg Bowl at the end of the season, while Auburn still has to go to Georgia and Alabama and theoretically has more chances to bounce back from a second loss.
No. 5 Oregon at No. 17 Utah
2 of 12
When: Saturday, Nov. 8
The Pac-12's top team occupies the Miss America runner-up position in the initial playoff standings, which means the league is currently on the outside looking in but also first in line to slide into the semifinals when someone above it inevitably slips.
Oregon cannot afford a loss at any point this month, but it's not the annual grudge match with Stanford this weekend that's as worrisome as the following week's trip to Salt Lake City.
Utah knocked off Stanford at home last season, and this year has wins over USC, UCLA and Michigan—the latter two on the road—showing it's not afraid of taking on more established programs. The Utes themselves are in the bottom spot of the 15 consecutive one-loss teams between third and 17th in the playoff rankings, but with a packed schedule remaining they could climb significantly if they win out.
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 14 Arizona State
3 of 12
When: Saturday, Nov. 8
Notre Dame got the message, whether it liked it or not: A good loss isn't as valuable as a quality win.
Losing by four points on the road at Florida State was impressive on paper, but combined with a devalued slate of wins before that game put the Fighting Irish at No. 10 in the first CFP standings. Thankfully, their remaining schedule provides several chances to pad the resume, starting with an intriguing clash in the desert with No. 14 Arizona State.
In a touch of irony, this game was one that Notre Dame tried to cancel last year before the schools worked out a deal to keep it on the schedule. Now it's a critical game for the Irish in their hopes of being a playoff team, writes JJ Stankevitz of CSNChicago.com:
"A win over Arizona State in Tempe paired with a season-ending victories against Louisville and USC may wind up being enough for an 11-1 Irish side, especially if there's more attrition in the Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC. But Notre Dame's strength of schedule to date hasn't turned out to be obscenely difficult—it's rated by Jeff Sagarin as the 36th-toughest in the country.
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No. 16 Ohio State at No. 8 Michigan State
4 of 12
When: Saturday, Nov. 8
The Big Ten Conference has a championship game scheduled for Dec. 6 in Indianapolis. But this clash of the league's two highest-rated playoff contenders might as well count for the championship, since it's in effect an elimination game for each and also the last chance during the regular season for someone from the Big Ten to get some major style points in a year full of bad press.
At No. 8, Michigan State is the lowest-rated "top team" from a power conference, and only the ACC has its second-best team ranked lower than the Big Ten but makes up for that by having Florida State at No. 2 and firmly in the playoff conversation. The Big Ten has been raked over the coals for its poor nonconference performance, with MSU's 19-point loss at Oregon counting as the league's most impressive result by default.
The Big Ten final can still serve as a springboard to the playoffs, assuming it pits one-loss teams from both divisions (Nebraska is the only one left in the West), but MSU coach Mark Dantonio is well aware how big the Ohio State game is to his team's goals.
"I'm a realist and understand that if you win, good things happen, and if you don't win you're gonna slide backward in whatever you do," Dantonio told Joe Rexrode of the Lansing State Journal.
No. 9 Kansas State at No. 7 TCU
5 of 12
When: Saturday, Nov. 8
TCU may have already played its way out of the playoff picture by the time it hosts No. 9 Kansas State, having visited West Virginia the week before. Assuming the Horned Frogs are able to get past the Mountaineers, which is by no means a guarantee—Baylor nods its head in agreement—this clash with the Wildcats is their last chance to impress the committee.
Because the Big 12 doesn't have a championship game, it's all about regular-season results for TCU and its league brethren. Its resume to this point is impressive, with convincing wins over Minnesota, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and a loss at Baylor that looks even better if the tape of the final 11 minutes gets magically erased. But after the West Virginia-Kansas State two-step, the dance card loses a lot of luster.
The Frogs' final three games are against teams in the bottom half of the conference, a trio of Kansas, Texas and Iowa State that is a combined 7-15.
K-State's post-TCU slate still has other opportunities to impress, with its own visit to West Virginia set for Nov. 20 and a finale in December at Baylor.
No. 23 East Carolina at Cincinnati
6 of 12
When: Thursday, Nov. 13
The College Football Playoff committee's main task is to select the four teams that will play in the semifinals, but it also selects participants in four other marquee bowl games and has graciously created a spot for a non-power conference team to play in one of those games.
As it stands, that outsider would be East Carolina, the lone "Group of Five" member ranked in the initial CFP standings at No. 23.
The Pirates earned that ranking based mostly on their nonconference work, when they went 2-1 against power opponents (beating North Carolina and Virginia Tech and losing by 10 at South Carolina). All three of those schools are only 4-4, but that's still a more impressive slate than any other non-power contender, and it appears the only way East Carolina would lose its big-bowl bid is to lose.
While ECU hasn't looked that great since American Athletic Conference play began, its remaining schedule features a few tough matchups. Visiting Cincinnati on a Thursday night is the most difficult outside of a December clash with reigning champ UCF and serves as the Pirates' most important game this month.
No. 1 Mississippi State at No. 6 Alabama
7 of 12
When: Thursday, Nov. 15
Mississippi State's rise to the top spot in the College Football Playoff rankings began with an impressive win at LSU. To stay there, the Bulldogs will need to continue to perform on the road.
There's a very distinct difference between MSU's home and road slate in November, as its three games in Starkville (vs. Arkansas, UT-Martin and Vanderbilt) are against opponents with a combined eight wins while the two road opponents each figure to have at least that many wins on their own.
First up is Alabama, against whom the Bulldogs haven't won since 2007. They haven't come out on top in Tuscaloosa since 2006, and in the three visits since then have lost by a combined score of 100-24.
No. 3 Auburn at No. 11 Georgia
8 of 12
When: Saturday, Nov. 15
The expansion to 14 schools and the decision to stick with an eight-game conference slate has made it so the SEC is almost like two separate conferences because of the lack of crossover games played each season. Thankfully, Auburn and Georgia are lined up to meet every year as a "protected" rivalry, and this year's version of Deep South's Oldest Rivalry has the added value of major playoff implications.
For Auburn, the trip to Athens is the middle stop in a trio of rigorous SEC road games in November, and one where it will be facing a team looking for revenge from a flukey finish to last year's game. The Tigers beat Georgia 43-38 thanks to the "Prayer at Jordan-Hare," the late 74-yard touchdown catch by Ricardo Louis on 4th-and-18 that was tipped in the air by a Georgia defender into Louis' hands.
Besides payback, this game serves as Georgia's only remaining game against a ranked opponent before a potential SEC title game matchup. At No. 11, the Bulldogs are still within reach of the top four, but probably only if they win out.
Adding to the intrigue of this already big game is the expected return of Georgia running back Todd Gurley, who hasn't played since Oct. 4 and who is eligible to play here after serving a four-game NCAA suspension for accepting money for autographs.
No. 15 Nebraska at Wisconsin
9 of 12
When: Saturday, Nov. 15
Did you know that the Big Ten has two divisions, and that the one in the West has itself a pretty good team atop the standings? That team would be Nebraska, which despite a 7-1 record has been mostly ignored on a national scale as a byproduct of the Big Ten's rough year.
The Cornhuskers' only opportunity to get any attention to this point was when they played at Michigan State in early October, a game they trailed 27-3 after three quarters before trying in vain to make a major comeback. But as the only one-loss team in the West Division, right now they're still in the playoff hunt—but only if they can win out.
That means having to win at Wisconsin in a game that will pit two of the best running backs in the country in Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah and Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin against each other. That, alone, is a reason to watch this game.
No. 14 Arizona State at No. 12 Arizona
10 of 12
When: Friday, Nov. 28
The Duel in the Desert is one of those rivalry games where the records don't usually matter, which is good because very rarely do both Arizona and Arizona State come in as winners. As it stands now, this could be the first time since 1986 that both teams are ranked when they meet for the Territorial Cup trophy.
A Pac-12 South Division title could also be on the line, and depending on how things fare above them in the playoff rankings, so could a spot in the semifinals. Arizona's win at Oregon gives it a leg up on Arizona State in the resume category, but the Sun Devils could get a lot of value from a win over Notre Dame on Nov. 8.
That also means the outcome of this game could impact how Oregon and Notre Dame end up in the final rankings.
No. 1 Mississippi State at No. 4 Ole Miss
11 of 12
When: Saturday, Nov. 29
The Egg Bowl is always a big game in the state of Mississippi, but this year it will taken on national importance as long as Mississippi State and Ole Miss remain in the playoff hunt. Each team has games it could lose between now and then, but short of a monumental collapse for both clubs this year's edition of the rivalry stands to be the biggest in series history.
According to Jake McGraw of HottyToddy.com, the cheapest seat for this year's game is about $295 for standing room and the median price is more than $550, and as the date moves closer that price is apt to skyrocket. "It's no stretch to say that you might have to pay a month's rent to spend three hours in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium the Saturday after Thanksgiving," McGraw wrote.
This game, along with the Iron Bowl in Alabama the same day, is in line to have as much of an effect on the College Football Playoff rankings as any other this year.
No. 3 Auburn at No. 6 Alabama
12 of 12
When: Saturday, Nov. 29
The only way the Iron Bowl won't have major playoff significance is if both Alabama and Auburn fall apart over the next few weeks. Each has a loaded schedule and plenty of pitfalls to navigate before their annual season-ending tussle, played this year in Tuscaloosa, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where at least one of the teams won't still be in the hunt for a semifinal bid.
It will be hard for the 2014 game to be any more impactful than last year's clash at Auburn, which decided the West Division and ended Alabama's hopes of a third consecutive national title. It's also unlikely it will end in as bizarre a way as last November, unless Gus Malzahn and Nick Saban have been spending valuable practice time perfecting something more shocking than Auburn's "Kick Six."
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
