5 Games That Will Determine Final College Football Playoff Rankings
The College Football Playoff selection committee will unveil its very first rankings next Tuesday, and then every Tuesday after that until the final rankings—along with the playoff pairings and New Year's Six bowl matchups—on Dec. 7.
In reality, none of the first six rankings really matter, since they have no bearing on the only one that counts—at least theoretically speaking. The committee has pledged that its rankings won't function like the polls and that it will consider results and data independently each week.
If that's really the case, then we need to let the season play out, as the playoff picture should clarify each week as more teams take on losses. Even as of now, only about a dozen or so teams are still realistically in the running for a playoff spot, and the rest of the regular season will serve as an elimination tournament.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
With that in mind, here are the five games that will have more to do in deciding the committee's final rankings—and playoff pairings—than any others.
| Miss State @ Ole Miss | Nov. 29 | TBA | - |
| Notre Dame @ USC | Nov. 29 | TBA | - |
| Ohio State @ Michigan State | Nov. 8 | 8 p.m. | ABC |
| SEC Championship Game* | Dec. 6 | TBA | CBS |
| Kansas State @ Baylor | Dec. 6 | TBA | - |
| UCF @ East Carolina | Dec. 4 | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Mississippi State at Ole Miss
This will turn out to be the most important Egg Bowl in history if both teams continue to roll toward a showdown for the SEC West title. Granted, both teams still have much work to do—Mississippi State visits Alabama, while Ole Miss hosts Auburn—but there's at least a 50-50 chance that the winner of the Egg Bowl will be in the SEC Championship Game. Even the loser might have a shot at a playoff berth.
Notre Dame at USC
The Irish do not play in a conference championship game, but this regular-season finale might have just as much importance. Two years ago, Notre Dame barely beat a depleted USC team that was playing without quarterback Matt Barkley to secure a spot in the BCS title game. It might have to do more of the same this year at the Los Angeles Coliseum and hope an 11-1 record will be good enough to get in the playoff field.
Ohio State at Michigan State
Make no mistake: This game will decide more than the Big Ten East, with the Big Ten championship and a possible spot in the playoff being up for grabs as well. The winner of this game will have a good chance to finish 11-1, and depending on how things shake out in the other conferences (and with Notre Dame), the B1G just might swipe a playoff spot even in a clearly down year for the conference.
SEC Championship Game
Four of the power-five conferences will have championship games, but the other three likely will have overwhelming favorites. That might not be the case in the SEC if Georgia wins the East and finishes 11-1, with or without Todd Gurley. A Bulldogs victory over the West winner would still be an upset but opens the possibility of the SEC landing two teams in the four-team playoff.
Kansas State at Baylor
The Big 12 is the lone conference without a title game, but this regular-season finale might just serve that purpose. The Wildcats are now the lone unbeaten team in conference play but still must face TCU, currently the highest-ranked Big 12 team in the polls. If both Baylor and K-State win out, then the winner of this game will have an excellent chance of making the playoff field.
Bonus: Central Florida at East Carolina
While Marshall of Conference USA is one of only four unbeatens in FBS, the winner of the American Athletic Conference still stands a fair chance of taking the automatic bid to a New Year's Six bowl granted to the top group-of-five champion. This regular-season finale for the only two teams still unbeaten in conference play very well could serve as the de facto American championship game.
Follow on Twitter @ThePlayoffGuru
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
