Breeders' Cup Classic 2014: 5 Horses to Know for This Year's Race

A new year has brought a great new crop of contenders for the 2014 Breeders' Cup Classic—of the current group of possible entries, only Moreno has Classic experience.

This new group brings with it a lot of excitement, and the race has the ability to decide the three-year-old champion for the current racing season as well. A victory for Tonalist or Shared Belief could wrap up the title, but California Chrome and V.E. Day still loom large.

Aside from those four contenders, the group also includes some under-the-radar options, a few of which we will look at in this piece.

So, without further adieu, here are five horses you must know for this year's running of the Classic.

Candy Boy

Candy Boy, a three-year-old son of Candy Ride—who also sired Shared Belief—has been in top form recently, finishing third in the Pennsylvania Derby, after posting back-to-back seconds in the West Virginia Derby and Los Alamitos Derby.

Candy Boy is a closer of the highest order. The young colt showed his finishing power in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby. After the first quarter, he settled into the trailing position, a whopping eight lengths back of the leader, and eventual winner, Bayern.

Candy Boy received a rather favorable trip, however, as the rail opened up nicely for him coming around the final turn. Though we shouldn't fault him for it—rather, we should praise him for taking the opportunity and turning it into a third-place finish, despite working from so far back—he doesn't figure to receive such a favorable trip against this field.

What makes Candy Boy an intriguing option for prospective bettors is his closing speed. In a race that features big-time gate speed from Bayern and Moreno, the pace on the front could be torrid.

If the handicapping holds up, Candy Boy could slide in for a late victory or at least top-three spot on the tote board.

Bayern

Bayern is my pick to win the Classic.

Why is that? Two words: Speed kills.

Bayern is the fastest horse in the country right now, and on a track that plays toward speed, this three-year-old figures to be the first one to the wire. Bayern has the best gate speed in the field, and if he gets out on an uncontested lead, there isn't a horse fast enough to run him down.

The perfect example of what Bayern's speed is capable of comes from this year's Haskell Invitational. On a fast Monmouth dirt track, this son of Offlee Wild got out to an early lead, running the first three quarters in 23.2, 24.1 and 24.5 seconds, respectively.

If he's allowed to do the same in the Classic, Bayern will win by open lengths just like he did on that July day.

There is, however, some additional speed to worry about in this race, and it comes in the form of the lone repeat contestant in this year's field.

Moreno, Bayern's main speed threat, could push the young colt on the front end. If he does, the duo could produce a torrid pace on the front end, opening the race up for either Moreno, or the field, to swoop in and snatch a first-place finish.

Either way, Bayern is the one the rest of the field will have to catch.

Shared Belief

Though he won't be on top of any of my Classic tickets, Shared Belief's recent showings in the Pacific Classic, and then again in the Awesome Again Stakes, make him a contender in this year's Breeders' Cup.

If you watch his prior races—especially the most recent two—two things are quite clear about Shared Belief.

First, he needs to be forwardly placed—no further back than mid-pack—and probably can't come from the back of a pack like Candy Boy—who was also sired by Candy Ride. I say probably, because there's no evidence, in any of his prior races, of his ability to do so.

Second, if he's not riding on the lead—an unlikely scenario given the presence of both Moreno and Bayern—the three-year-old needs a very solid pace in front of him.

Over the past two races, Shared Belief has closed into 3/4-mile fractions of 1:10.59 (Awesome Again Stakes) and 1:10.08 (Pacific Classic). Fortunately for him and his rider—most likely Mike Smith—the early speed and track bias involved in this race should set up well for him.

If the early-speed duo of Moreno and Bayern burn it up on the front end and Shared Belief keeps them within reach, he'll likely have the first crack at them.

Some final food for thought: Last year's winner in the Awesome Again Stakes, Mucho Macho Man, went on to win the Classic as well.

Tonalist

Tonalist probably isn't going to win the Classic, but he could. Even so, he should probably be used on your tickets.

Tonalist's most recent showing came in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. In that race, Tonalist turned in a first-place effort, despite the race falling apart after Moreno cut off would-be challenger Wicked Strong, causing him to throw his jockey.

If not for this development, the race probably would have had a totally different outcome. However, we can still give Tonalist strong marks for picking up the pieces in a broken race and working out a win.

Go back a little further, however, and you see strong showings in both the Grade 1 Travers Stakes and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, where he finished third and second, respectively. Prior to his runner-up showing in the Jim Dandy, Tonalist put up back-to-back victories in the Peter Pan and the Belmont Stakes.

What will be most interesting to watch is how he operates within the same space as Shared Belief. The two horses both like to sit off the pace, and both close well into speedy fractions. The two will also try to make their moves as close to the 3/4-mile mark as possible, which could make for an exciting finish to this year's running of the Classic.

The three-year-old son of Tapit has shown an ability to operate in close and sometimes chaotic quarters, which makes him a solid option coming out of the middle of the pack.

Moreno

Moreno has to be accounted for when assessing this year's Classic. This colt has solid gate speed—but he's not quite as quick as Bayern—and could challenge for the lead in the race's early stages.

If he's able to push Bayern on the front end, this race could break down quickly, opening the door for the rest of the field or Moreno to take home a victory.

A successful use of Moreno's speed comes in his most recent gate-to-wire victory at the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap.

From the onset of the race, it was clear that this was Moreno's race to lose. The four-year-old worked his way to an easy, uncontested 23.67 opening quarter and followed with a nearly identical 23.83 second quarter.

With no challenge to his lead, Moreno was able to post closing quarters of 23.81 and 24.1. Moreno finished the race with a time of 1:48:05. Compare that to Bayern's 1:47:40 time in the Haskell, and you can see where the two horses will occupy similar domains in terms of racing style.

Moreno will not get to run the same race he ran in the Whitney. If he tries to, he'll get first crack at Bayern, but he'll never be able to run him down.

Moreno's only hope in this race is to challenge Bayern early on, wear him down and hope that the separation between them and the rest of the field is enough to help him hold onto the lead.

Either way, Moreno's speed can, and probably will, be some sort of a factor in this race.